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2020.11.10 18:14 Erhard_Eckmann [Econ] Urban Renewal Megaproject

Urban Renewal Megaproject

An initiative begun by President Rubio and endorsed by the Republican Party, the Urban Renewal Projects designate a shift in focus in American cities from building out, to building up. After the refocusing of the Republican Party policy, a hard look was taken at city policies to help minority groups thrive economically, along with their businesses. It was determined that the best way to uplift minority groups across the United States would be to improve their quality of life and cities. Almost every major city in the United States has been neglected close to the city center almost since its inception, while new infrastructure expands the city limits. A mindset has formed that the wealthy keep moving out to newer infrastructure while the inner city is filled with minorities and public squalor, but that needs to change. If American cities can uplift their interior and overhaul their public image, the quality will improve, their property values will rise, and their wealth will grow as businesses thrive. The Republican Party is looking at making such economic growth possible, and has created the Urban Renewal Projects to give grants to municipalities to overhaul their jurisdiction by using Federal funding. President Rubio has set his priorities on Rust Belt Cities, Deep South Cities, Economic Hubs, and Aging Cultural Centers. The following cities have been designated as Urban Renewal targets:
  • Montgomery, Alabama
  • Mobile, Alabama
  • Jackson, Mississippi
  • New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Little Rock, Arkansas
  • Fayetteville, Arkansas
  • Memphis, Tennessee
  • Nashville, Tennessee
  • Savannah, Georgia
  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Columbia, South Carolina
  • Charleston, South Carolina
  • Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Raleigh, North Carolina
  • Norfolk, Virginia
  • Richmond, Virginia
  • Alexandria-Fairfax, Virginia
  • Washington D.C
  • Baltimore, Maryland
  • Louisville, Kentucky
  • Charleston, West Virginia
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • New York City, New York
  • Buffalo, New York
  • Boston, Massachusetts
  • Detroit, Michigan
  • Grand Rapids, Michigan
  • Cleveland, Ohio
  • Columbus, Ohio
  • Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Chicago, Illinois
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Los Angeles, California
  • Seattle, Washington
  • San Francisco, California

Roadways

One of the most notable and most complained about issues facing urban America is the quality of roads. It goes without saying, Alabama and Mississippi are not famous for their excellent roadways. It is very easy for a road to be build and be completely forgotten about. In some cases, decades have gone by where potholes have not been filled, lines have not been repainted, and storm drains haven't been dug. The United States loves to build something, and completely forget about maintenance; the Projects are a perfect example of this. Roadways that haven't been paved in over 20 years will be slated for reconstructing. These roadways will be slated for storm drain installation to keep the road tops clear. For those large roadways that cut through residential areas, noise walls will be installed where possible. Roadway quality will have to be certified to ensure it meets regulations and safety needs. Traffic cameras will be installed where possible to monitor traffic and enforce traffic laws. Major roads will receive lane additions to hold more traffic, but downtown areas will be given a specific bus/bicycle lane if not present already. This will help keep slow bus traffic and distracting bicycles off to the side. Where possible, traffic lights will be gradually phased down for favor of roundabouts to keep cities moving.

Mass Transit

One area that the US is significantly lacking is in mass transit. Only a handful of cities have subway systems, but all of them could greatly benefit from having them. Firstly, the existing subway systems like the New York City Metro and the DC Metro will need extensive upgrading, they are significantly outdated because their cities have no interest in keeping them up. The existing metros will be upgraded and given an overhaul for cleanliness and aesthetic purposes. New rolling stock will be brought out as well. For the remaining cities, while most have some sort of overground tram, they will be given funding to set up their own subway service. They will actively service the downtown areas and spread out expansively into the suburbs, this will allow for connection from the inner city to the outskirts so that when the urban renewal builds the city up and people begin to move back downtown, there will be total coverage of the area. It will be up to the municipalities what they charge and what they spend on maintenance and upgrading, but the federal government will provide 20% of whatever the expense is to maintain after construction.

Commercial and Residential Development

In the downtown areas, old, rundown, and empty buildings will have the land auctioned off to land developers so that high-rise residential and commercial buildings can be built in their place. Citizens will be asked if they would be willing to relocate and sell their inner-city land to developers so the area can be uplifted. No one will be forced to move, and it will completely be a by choice decision. In areas where the roads are being extended, if it would cut through a building, only in that case will eminent domain be used. All historical structures will be protected and retained in their current place. If there are residents that would prefer to remain in their place, developers will be allowed to bargain with the homeowners for the development to take place. Out of the rubble of the old, skyscrapers will rise up across the downtown areas with large-scale residential buildings to bring life back to the downtown areas. Cities will be recommended to institute a "no additional suburban expansion" policy, so that high-rises will gradually begin populating the city areas, and land can be preserved. American cities will gradually begin to look like the rest of the world, as apartment buildings will replace large suburban projects, mixed-use buildings along the street will house residents on the higher floors, and have commercial space on the lower floors to keep the cities vibrant. Old telephone lines will be removed, and external cabling will be integrated into underground systems to clean up the streets. Internet service cabling will also be upgraded to fiber-optic or the equivalent latest standard so that the utilities in America's urban areas will be the most up-to-date, which will allow for an overall increase of American internet speeds. On the tops of large commercial buildings, companies like Verizon, AT&T, among others will be permitted to install their latest 5G services to keep Americans connected as the height of cities grow.

Waste & Recycling Management

One of the biggest complaints for American cities is the poor waste management system, and how it contributes to a perception of unclean cities. Take New York for example, it is notorious for being an unclean city, but there is no reason it has to be that way. Cities should prioritize keeping up a clean image, and the federal government is willing to provide funding and services to keep it that way. Cities have been recommended to create volunteer public service programs for students or seniors to help clean their city, whether it be cleaning graffiti, picking up trash, or crosswalk assistance prior to school hours, there are plenty of opportunities that can be made available for those who want to make a difference in their cities. Recycling services should become customary in every city that doesn't have it already. Bulk trash pick-up days should happen once a month, even in cities, and trash routines should take place at minimum twice a week. While trash trucks are excellent for handling the cans and large dumpsters, oftentimes bags are left at the street level out of pure laziness. Shortly after trucks make their rounds, a smaller pickup with a small crew should roll through and collect any remaining trash and debris to help eliminate the perception of dirty American cities. Public trashcans should be made abundant, and as frequently emptied as the trash service takes place. Restaurants, grocery stores, and food-service businesses will also have a food-waste bin, which will be specifically for these types of businesses that will rotate as a trash service. The waste will be taken to natural composts which can be processed into fertilizer and bought back for local farmers, which is an innovative way for municipal governments to make money. Recycling can also be cleaned, and then sold back to manufacturing companies looking for raw materials like plastic, metals, aluminum, and glass. Sure, it will cost a little bit of money to keep America's cities clean, but the investor appeal and public enjoyment of the cities is priceless. It could be maneuvers like this that revitalize old cultural cities like Montgomery.

Cleaning Waterways

The various harbors, ports, bays, lakes, and rivers of America's cities are often one of the primary appeals for the location and tourism in the first place. The residents of the DC area would love a cleaner Potomac, as would those of LA and the bay. While America has been very keen to allow industrial ports and companies to thrive, it has often been at the expense of the residents of the city. There is no reason why these municipalities cannot have both good environment and economical success. For ports and lakes, city governments will subsidize submersible drones to help clean the undercarriages of freighters and outgoing vessels, to prevent trash sticking to them or bio run-off from other areas of the globe. Port authorities will be connected with businesses like 4Ocean to help turn old retired vessels into skimmers for lakes, oceans, rivers, and bay areas to pick up remnants of storm damage and other trash. For more narrow areas, the 4Ocean patrol vessels can be purchased to help clean the waterways. The federal government will provide subsidies to help make these options affordable to the cities, which will allow them to focus on cleaning up their near waterways. Lakes, and rivers near cities are typically used for tourism, fishing, and sometimes drinking water. The EPA has been tasked with being more proactive about testing these waters to make sure they are safe for drinking, and recreational activities. If pollutants and chemicals are detected that should not be present, they will notify the local authorities to put out a notice and will begin an investigation that could end up in a lawsuit, or evicting the person or organization responsible.
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2020.11.07 21:48 Quirky-Motor EXTENSIVE write up and timeline of the 1951 case of the missing child Beverly Rose Potts from Cleveland, Ohio. How can a child disappear in a distance of only 300 feet? Part 1 of 2

The disappearance of Beverly Potts
Description
Background
Beverly Rose Potts was born to Robert and Elizabeth Potts in 1941 in Cleveland, Ohio. Robert worked as a stage hand at a theater and Elizabeth was a dancer and singer. Robert was an American while his wife, Elizabeth was an immigrant from Hungary. In the early 1900s Cleveland boasted the largest Hungarian population in the world outside of Budapest and many families such as the Potts, were of Eastern European descent. Poles, Lithuanians, and Hungarians made up a large percentage of Cleveland’s population. In 1924, Robert and Elizabeth met at work and married at age 24. After nearly five years of marriage, the couple gave birth to their daughter, Anita, in 1929 and bought a home on Linnet Avenue near Halloran park on Cleveland’s west side. Throughout the 1930s, many family members moved in and out of the Potts’ home as everyone tried to stay afloat until better days (Badal, 2005).
In 1941 when Anita was twelve years old, the Elizabeth and Robert, now aged 41, found out that they were going to be parents yet again. But rather than fret, the Potts welcomed this new addition to the family and rather than referring to Beverly as a surprise, a mistake, unplanned or an “oops baby” Elizabeth always corrected others and said that Beverly “wasn’t an oops baby, she was a miracle child” (Badal, 2005).
By 1951 the miracle baby Beverly was 10 years old and was due to start 5th grade in September. At this point the house of Linnet Avenue was home to only five people, the parents, one cousin of Elizabeth’s named Betty Morbito, Beverly, and Anita who had recently graduated college and moved back home only weeks before. Anita was working at a cash register company, Elizabeth was staying home, and Robert was still working at the theater.
According to papers at the time, that weekend was nothing out of the ordinary. The Potts family had an outing planned for August 25th. They were going to have a picnic at Euclid beach park. Beverly was excited for the outing and had declined a party invitation because of the plans with her family. Although the papers widely reported this family outing, Anita does not remember this being the plan and thinks the reports in the papers were simply a mix-up or a mistake (Badal, 1951). Whether or not this outing was planned, reports all agree that Beverly had no reason to run away from home on August 24th 1951.
The Disappearance
On Friday, August 24th Beverly and her best friend, next door neighbor Patricia “Patsy” Swing, planned on going to Halloran Park to attend a Showagon. A Showagon is an old-fashioned type of festival which was usually put on by parks departments in large cities. Showagon is similar to a talent show. Local kids and teens could audition to do a piece for the Showagon and the winners would go to a different park in the city each weekend and put on a show for local residents. The acts were things like singing, dancing, and or playing an instrument. As far as I can tell, there are no rides or vendors, just local talent entertaining their neighbors.
Halloran park near Beverly’s home was well established and old trees graced the area. However, this vegetation made the park pitch black at night and lampposts were unable to pierce the darkness completely. During the daytime Halloran park served an approximately 100,000 youngsters but at night it attracted transients to its benches. Empty wine bottles and smoked cigarettes could be found strewn about the grounds nearly every morning. Additionally, at least two “sex attacks” had happened in the park in the months leading up the Showagon, as well as a few instances of things like groping which had been reported to the police.
Before we go on, I think it is important to get a better picture of Beverly. Beverly was thought to be a rather quiet, shy, and obedient girl according to both teachers and family members. Neighbors trusted Beverly to babysit their little children, and one woman reported that Beverly even walked her daughter to Kindergarten every day. These parents described Beverly as responsible and cautious. Her parents said she was shy around new people, especially boys and men. Elizabeth said she had told Beverly extensively about the dangers of unknown men and cautioned her about getting into cars with others. She reminded her daughter to be careful if she noticed someone was following her. On at least one occasion Beverly had fled from someone she thought was following her in the neighborhood and returned home promptly. Her friends at school said she had one crush on a boy in the grade but she was too shy and nervous to ever talk to him.
All this to say, Beverly seemed to be aware of “stranger-danger” and was at least taught to be aware of her surroundings. According to Anita, the Potts never hit their children and instead grounded them for misbehavior. Only a few days before her disappearance, Beverly had missed her curfew several days in a row and was subsequently grounded. Elizabeth revealed this was a common issue for Beverly. For example, if Elizabeth reminded her to come home at 3 pm because they had company, Beverly would stay out much later, 5 or 6 pm and say she had lost track of time. It did does not appear that Beverly would stay away from home at night or that Potts would allow her to stay out late. Typically, they expected Beverly home before dark. Besides this, the Potts reported that Beverly had no behavior problems and had never run away from home.
On August 24th, Beverly who was grounded, asked to attend the Showagon at Halloran park, a mere 1/8th mile from her home. Elizabeth allowed her to go as she knew it was a special event that only happened once a year. The edge of the park was close to Potts’ home but at 13 acres, the area spanned three city blocks and it appears that the actual show was farther away from Linnet avenue than is generally assumed, about ¼ to 1/2 of a mile. In order to get back home from the Showagon, Beverly would have had to have traveled northeast through the park, crossed West 117th street and then walked down Linnet Avenue.
A little before 7 pm Beverly and her mother finished washing dishes and the adults sat down to watch a Major League baseball game on TV. Beverly went next door to get her friend Patsy and the girls rode their bikes to Halloran park a little after 7 pm. By 7:30 pm the park was so crowded that the girls decided that navigating their bikes through the crowd was too difficult, so they rode their bikes home and opted to walk back to the festival. Later reports estimate that approximately 1,500 people were in the park that evening.
By 8:10 pm the friends were back at the park and watching the show. When darkness began to creep over the horizon, Patsy who was supposed to be home by dark, asked Beverly to leave. The girls got into a small tiff and Beverly insisted that she was allowed to stay until the end of the show. At approximately 8:40 pm Patsy left the show and later said Beverly was mesmerized watching some dancers on stage when she last saw her. (This story would later change some but her initial story was simply Beverly was watching dancers on stage.) Patsy arrived home at little before 9 pm.
At around 9:30 pm to 9:45 pm the show had ended and people were leaving the Showagon in mass. The Potts assumed Beverly would be home soon. When she did not arrive within a few minutes, Anita called the Swings who reported that Patsy had been home more than 30 minutes. Robert fetched the neighbors and began looking all over the park for Beverly. When they arrived Halloran park was nearly empty. After an hour of futile searching, the Potts called the Cleveland police department at least three times. The police finally arrived later at around midnight. Their first order of business was to search the Potts home from top to bottom, which they did twice before searching the neighborhood and the park, but there was no sign of Beverly (Missing in Ohio, 2019).
The next few days tips poured into the police department and newspapers as witnesses reported sightings of Beverly and recollections about the night in question. A few of the more promising leads and sightings are detailed below.
Sightings
The two most talked about sightings online are the witness reports of Patsy Swing and another boy named Fred Krause. Initially, Patsy reported that Beverly was watching the dancers on stage when she left, however, in the subsequent months and years Patsy was interviewed and reinterviewed by law enforcement. In these sessions she often felt pressure to remember new things from the evening, so it is important to take Patsy’s thoughts with a grain of salt. Most online sources about the case report that when Patsy left the show, she turned back to see Beverly, who was standing near a short plump woman who was resting a hand on Beverly’s shoulder. In one account this short woman was holding the hand of a small child. The woman may have had a child performing in the Showagon. This is widely reported but this is not the story Patsy initially divulged. This is an odd memory for two reasons. First, Patsy did not remember this for some time and did not report it in her first few interviews. Additionally, Patsy said she and Beverly were straining to see over the other guests, so their placement in the crowd is an odd place for a short woman to choose unless of course her intentions were bad. Because of these reasons this memory has to be taken with a grain of salt (Badal, 2005).
The next credible sighting of Beverly took place at approximately 9:30-9:45 pm by a boy named Fred Krause. Krause was a 13-year-old boy who lived on Linnet avenue and was slightly acquainted with Beverly. He explained in interviews that he did not know Beverly’s name but he recognized her as neighbor because he delivered newspapers and he vaguely remembered that one girl on the street and at his school who “walked like a duck.” He spent the evening riding his bike through the park while his father watched the Showagon. His mother watched from the porch of their home and saw her son several times throughout the evening. At approximately 9:40 or 9:45, there was an announcement that the show was over and attendees began filing out of the park. Without the lights of the stage on, it was miserably dark. As Fred began peddling out of the area, he almost collided with a young girl who was walking northeast out of the park near the intersection of West 117th and Linnet Avenue. This girl was about 150 feet from the cross walk. Fred said this girl was walking “like a duck” and it was so dark he almost hit her when he drove by. He explained that the girl was not walking on the path like most of the guests and was instead a few feet away from the walkway on the grass. He had to toot his horn or bell as he passed her. More than a week later Fred mentioned this to his mother who insisted that he go to the police. In this witness sighting, Beverly was among a throng of people exiting the park and although it was dark, she was not alone or in an isolated area. This sighting is regarded by many to be the last confirmed sighting of Beverly Potts (Badal, 2005).
Showagon attendees were encouraged to call the CPD to report if they saw Beverly that night in order to give statements and eventually twenty-five people came forward to say their piece. One witness, Mr. Vorell was at the Showagon with his children when he observed at dark colored coup with a man in his 50s inside who was cruising the area and watching young kids, mostly girls from his car (Badal, 2005).
Several witnesses reported seeing two young men aged 17-20 watching very young girls in the park at about 7-8 pm. The men were on foot. One man had thick, dark, wavy hair and the other was a blonde. Three additional Showagon guests reported seeing a girl matching Beverly’s description talking to two men matching this description while they were in a car, a dark green or black 1937 or ’38 dodge coup. These sightings were in between 9:15- 9:30 pm. No one saw Beverly enter the car, she was simply seen talking to the men. One person placed this event at 8:30 pm although most witnesses remembered it being between 9:15-9:30 pm (Badal, 2005).
One crowd member reportedly saw Beverly playing near the back door of a convertible car as late as 10 pm, but other guests reported that by 10, the park was completely deserted. Several people had to walk to the park around 10 pm to fetch their children who had not returned home from the show but none of them reported seeing anything suspicious and all reported that the park was steeped in darkness and empty when they arrived there at 10. Due to these sightings it is widely assumed that Beverly met with foul either right after the Krause’s sighting or while she was already on Linnet avenue mere yards from her home. Others have speculated that Beverly entered the car of someone she knew or trusted on either 117th St. or on Linnet Ave. Law enforcement believes that this is the most probable scenario as no one reported hearing screams or a struggle (Badal, 2005).
Other witnesses came forward with different stories. Cab driver Robert Karmecy divulged that he picked up two customers at the edge of Halloran park that night at about 9 pm. One customer was a Polish looking man 25-30 years old. His companion was a girl who looked to be around eleven. Karmecy dropped the pair off at the bus station and went on his way. He reported the story to the police soon afterwards (Badal, 2005).
Cleveland police also interviewed Beverly’s classmates when school returned to session. The children interviewed gave a variety of stories, most involved seeing Beverly talking to people at the Showagon or getting into strange cars. Although a few classmates had small tidbits of information, such as seeing Beverly and Patsy and waving to them, no important information was gathered and most of the sightings reported by Beverly’s school mates were determined to be false. Nearly all the interviewed children recanted their stories within a few days and the school yard dragnet was exposed as a bust (Badal, 2005).
Investigation and leads
Robert and Elizabeth were devasted by the disappearance of their daughter. Press and curious onlookers swarmed the yard of the Linnet Avenue home for weeks. Elizabeth cried constantly and could not eat or sleep. Robert, who typically worked the night shift, was eyed suspiciously as neighbors reported that they didn’t really know him. Rumors swirled that he was an alcoholic, abusive, or even simply mysterious. Some papers published that Robert had multiple DUIs and speculated that maybe he did something to his daughter. However, police reports showed that Robert had no DUIs. His only run in with law enforcement was a ticket he received for doing an illegal left turn years earlier. Eventually, all four adults in the home were cleared by police in Beverly’s disappearance; they all had alibis. Patsy Swing’s parents were also cleared, as the two were watching the baseball game with neighbors.
Eventually, the Potts phone had to be disconnected as cruel prank calls plagued the home during all hours of the night. Elizabeth lamented to the papers that she did not do enough to protect Beverly. She wished again and again that she had taught Beverly to be cautious around women and became convinced that Beverly was lured away by a woman or couple- a theory which is prevalent to this day. In those days Anita ran the household and tried to helpful but the situation was just too much to bear (Badal, 2005).
At 2 or 3 pm on September 4th only ten days after Beverly’s disappearance, a factory worker was taking a break at his workplace which overlooked the Cuyahoga River when he saw a bundle about 5 feet long, float down the sluggish water way. The more he looked at the bundle the more it looked like human body wrapped in a tarp, with arms, hair, and feet sticking out of the tarp covering. The man immediately called the police. The river was dragged, divers were deployed, and witness were interviewed. Several people down river reported that they too had seen the bundle that day, September 4th. After two days of no findings it was determined that the bundle, whatever it was, had most likely floated into the vastness of Lake Erie, never to be seen again.
Three weeks after Beverly’s disappearance police asked to search each home on Linnet avenue in an attempt to find clues. At that time many homes had dirt floored garages and storage areas leading LE to speculate that Beverly may have been lured into someone’s home and subsequently buried on the property. No evidence was found. Moreover, no single household refused the search; all households complied with the search request. Meanwhile, the Potts completed a thorough inventory Beverly’s closet and things in order to narrow down what Beverly’s wearing and carrying at the time of her disappearance. This is why such a detailed description can be provided in this case.
After a week or so of futile searching for the girl, area sex offenders were interviewed. Even in the early 1950s sex offenders had to be registered and police departments kept track of their addresses. The offenders were categorized by gender and age of their victims and many sex offenders in the area were questioned. However, sometimes these predators were re-arrested and never taken off the list, meaning many of the 1,100 Cleveland offenders were actually in jail for other offenses when police came knocking. Unfortunately, nothing came of this line of inquiry. Meanwhile, wooded areas and bodies of water near the Potts’ home were scoured but no trace of Beverly was ever found.
A month or so later, on October 9th, a fisherman was fishing in the Rocky River when he caught a piece of red cloth on his hook. He untangled the fabric, put it on the shore and continued with his day. The fisherman went home that evening, but later remembered that that Beverly was last seen in a pink/red top and red underwear. With this realization he called investigators. From October 9th-11th the Rocky River, which was only 10 feet deep, was searched with boats and divers. A piece of blue cloth about 8 inches long was found as well as a clump of hair attached to a soggy substance. Both pieces were taken to be tested. The cloth was later determined to be a fabric from a bathing suit, not jeans like Beverly was wearing. No red cloth was found and the hair was dark brown not blonde like Beverly’s. Additionally, the soggy substance it was attached to was nothing more than waterlogged cardboard. By October 11th, the CPD announced that the they had no reason to believe that Beverly’s body was or had been in the Rocky River.
On November 9th, a mysterious person called Robert Potts work and demanded to know why the Potts phone number was no longer working. Then the caller made a ransom demand, but only if the Potts home number was reinstated. The phone was reconnected and several days later and man called the home and set up a money drop, promising to release Beverly in exchange for $25,000 dollars. He claimed that Beverly was very sick but he promised she was still alive. A few days later, a male detective dressed up like Elizabeth, who herself was almost 6 feet tall, prepared to do the money drop in exchange for Beverly, but the kidnapper sensed the trap and tried to flee the area. When apprehended Frank Dale Davis admitted he was an opportunist who needed cash to pay off his debts. Davis was convicted of fraud and was sentenced to five years in prison. Subsequent investigation showed he had nothing to do with Beverly’s disappearance.
One month after the bizarre ransom request, an even stranger incident occurred. In late November a man who called himself Tom, phoned Lester Swing and claimed that he had Beverly. Tom claimed that he had hit Beverly with his car in August. Thinking she was dead he put her in the car to dispose of the body, but it turned out that Beverly was simply stunned and now had a bad case of amnesia. Tom explained to Lester that he would release Beverly in downtown Cleveland, but only if Lester dressed Patsy in the same clothes as Beverly was last seen in and had her stand at the magazine counter of the May Company department store on Dec. 1st from 3-5 pm. However, Tom wanted Patsy to wear a denim skirt not a denim pants. The Swings reported the incident to the police. Lester refused to let Patsy participate in the stunt so a decoy was used and nothing happened. Tom called the Swings later and explained that he did not like the use of a decoy and set up a new time two weeks later. After a lot of convincing the Swings allowed Patsy to be part of the sting. On Dec. 15th while Pasty braved the store alone, police descended on a man lurking in the area watching the young girl. Stephen Tyukody admitted to making the phone calls to the Swings but had no explanation as to why. Tyukody was cleared of any involvement in Beverly’s case.
In late 1951, one man claimed that on August 24th, he saw a car near Halloran park with a screaming girl tied up in the back seat. The car was cruising down west 117th. Police checked out his lead by tracking down each individual with a car like the man described but nothing panned out and the lead was later determined to be false. Several clairvoyants also contacted the police but their stories likewise, were useless. As 1951 came to a close, no one had any idea what had happened to 10-year-old Beverly Potts.
Suspects
Throughout the case a variety of people have been looked at as potential persons of interest. Here are some of the more prominent suspects.
William Slates: Four days after Beverly’s disappearance the papers announced that police had a suspect, a Cleveland native referred to as Bill. This Bill was William Slates, a former solider who had been dishonorably discharged in 1949 after making sexual advances to an 8-year-old girl in movie theater. Family members related that Slates had a history of dating very young teens and according to army psychologists he was in a severe need of psychotherapy treatment. In 1951 Slates, on probation for his crime, was living with his mother on 166th St. near Halloran park. In late August, Slates’ mother was on vacation and he was at the home alone. At the time he was seeing a 17-year-old telephone operator and was working odd jobs. On Sunday August 26th, Slates borrowed a friend’s car, locked up his mother’s Cleveland home, drove to Columbus, and checked into a hotel using a false identity, all for apparently no reason. Friends reported his absence to police who tracked him to Columbus via phone calls to his girlfriend. Slates could give no explanation for leaving Cleveland so abruptly. He was interviewed repeatedly and failed several polygraphs. After a week or so of being the prime suspect in the case, Slates’ girlfriend came forward and provided him with an alibi, claiming they were making out at a park at the time of Beverly’s disappearance. One of Slates’ friends also claimed he was with Slates’ that evening but a third friend said that they were altogether on a different day, not the 24th. Discrepancies aside, Slates was released from custody and was eliminated as a suspect. Modern sleuths have questioned the validity of this alibi, but Cleveland police seemed to think it valid at the time (Badal, 2005).
Speed queen: Less than a week following Beverly’s disappearance rumors swirled that a local “speed queen” and her friends were responsible for Beverly’s demise. Modern connotations aside, in the 1950s a speed queen was not a drug user, but rather a term used for girls/women who drove hot rods or sports cars. According to a couple who were friends with this “speed queen” on the night Beverly was last seen a local teenager and hot-roder Barbara Saunders, loaned her car to her boyfriend’s brother and some of his friends. That evening at around 10 pm the boys called Barbara and explained that they had to abandon the car because they had gotten into an accident on West 117th St. and the car was “hot”. When Barbara retrieved the car the next day from a wooded area, she reported that there was some blood on the bumper as well as a few strands of cloth. On the 31st of August CPD decided to conduct a dig in the area the car was abandoned to search for clues as well as graves. However, no evidence was found during the multiday search. Saunders’ car was also searched a few strands of blonde hair were found stuck in the door hinge which were collected as evidence.
Over all the investigators found the “speed queen” story to be unlikely. Not only was the whole story sensational, west 117th is a main thoroughfare in Cleveland, and many found it ludicrous that someone could hit a child on such as busy road without anyone seeing anything, especially as hundreds of fans left the Showagon and crossed that very street. The only reason investigators looked into this story was because the car and men from the story vaguely matched the description of the two young men seen talking a girl who looked like Beverly at the Showagon that evening. The hair collected from the car has since been lost and was never forensically tested (Badal, 2005).
Harvey Lee Rush was a Cleveland native who had lived a hard and fast life. He looked older than his forty-something years and had been drifting around the United States for about three years in 1955 when he was picked up in Los Angeles for public intoxication. Rush had nearly 100 arrests in his life mostly for petty crimes like public intoxication and bar fights. Rush used all the money he made as a hospital cleaner on booze. However, on this day in 1955, Rush had an extraordinary story to tell. He claimed that in July 1952, he had abducted and killed a girl in Cleveland. Rush explained that one day while he was at a circus or puppet show in Cleveland, he lured a young girl, aged about 12 away from the show with the promise of candy. He and the girl went under a nearby bridge and he promised to give her ice cream, but instead he told her to disrobe. Then the girl started to cry, Rush punched her knocking her out and she landed on some rocks which apparently killed her. Harvey described the girl as aged about 12, with shoulder length dark hair and glasses.
The next day the dried-out suspect was able to write a three-page confession and officers relayed the story to their counterparts in Cleveland. Rush’s story was full of holes and discrepancies; he couldn’t even remember the correct year. Neither agency believed that the story was genuine but they decided to not take that chance and Rush was extradited back to Ohio. Investigators thought it was suspicious that Rush’s description of the puppet show and the girl he abducted seemed to match incorrect newspaper reports rather than truth. In Beverly’s black and white photo, she looks older than 10, her hair is longer and appears dark. Additionally, one newspaper reported that there was a puppet show at the Showagon, but this was a simply misprint. Moreover, Harvey was unable to show officers where he took the girl and insisted that there was a bridge near the park that simply wasn’t there. After a few days, Rush recanted his story and explained he simply wanted a free trip back to his home town of Cleveland. Rush was eliminated as a suspect (Badal, 2005).
William Henry Redmond is another suspect often mentioned in this case. Redmond was a Ferris wheel operator who lived all across the country on account of his job, but Ohio and Pennsylvania were his usual haunts. Redmond had a history of perpetrating brutally violent sex crimes starting when he was only 13 years old. In the 1930s Redmond was convicted of sexual assaults on two separate occasions and sent to prison. In the 1940s he was accused of additional charges of a similar nature in Florida.
In 1951 Jane Marie Althoff was 8 years old and was attending a carnival with two of her siblings. Althoff disappeared at the carnival and was last seen whispering to the Ferris wheel operator, William Redmond. When police went to question Redmond the next day, he had fled the area without even picking up his paycheck. Sadly, Althoff was found strangled a few hours later, in an abandoned truck covered with Redmond’s fingerprints. With the prime suspect missing, the case grew cold.
In 1988 investigators in Pennsylvania decided to once more look for Redmond and found him living in Nebraska. They arrested the now frail old man and took him all the way back to Pennsylvania for trial. Redmond confessed and allegedly told a cell mate that he had killed three other girls. Due to some technicalities, Redmond was not tried for years. He passed away in 1992 awaiting trial.
ViCap, AFIS, and DMV records linked Redmond to certain murders around the county by comparing crimes featuring his MO to DMV records. He is a suspect in the case of Connie Smith age 10 in 1952 in Connecticut, although some agencies say he passed a polygraph regarding that case. Redmond is considered a suspect in the 1957 case of 7-year-old Maria Ridulph, and the 1955 case of 7-year-old Barbara Gaca of Detroit. Joanne Lynn, aged 11, was found shot in Lima, New York in 1949. Redmond was working at a carnival only a few miles from Joanne’s home. One blog alleges that when Redmond was arrested, underwear of pre-teen girls was found in his home (Hunter, 2017).
Redmond specifically refused to confirm or deny involvement in the case of Beverly Potts. Closer scrutiny of this suspect does not exonerate him of the crime completely, but there is no evidence Redmond was even in the state of Ohio at the time of Beverly’s disappearance and no other evidence connects him to this crime. Furthermore, Beverly was much older than Redmond’s confirmed victims, the oldest of whom was 8 years old. For some reason, online sleuths often portray William Henry Redmond as the most probable suspect despite very limited evidence and no proof that he was even in the area at the time (Badal, 2005).
Odd Occurrences and possible evidence
The auto-body tip In 1980 one retired Cleveland detective announced that he had solved the case in 1974. In the early 70s, a man called in a tip to the CPD claiming that his brother had confessed to Beverly’s murder. The brother’s auto body shop was searched and dug up but nothing of note was found. According to one detective, this suspect had a record of molesting young girls in and around Halloran park. The detective even claims that this suspect confessed to him. Despite this information, the DA refused to prosecute due to lack of evidence. Other police sources claim this story is not accurate and have only confirmed that the auto body dig was a bust. No official sources have corroborated the retired detective’s story (Badal, 2005).
Letter in carpet In 1994 a letter was discovered under the carpet in a Cleveland home. The letter was written by a woman who claimed that she witnessed her husband disposing of Beverly’s body in their furnace. When tracked down the woman admitted that in 1960 around the time she was divorcing her husband, she had written and hid the letter as revenge against her abusive ex, but the contents of the letter were fabricated by herself. The woman’s children backed up her story. According to the women’s children, their father (now dead) had a temper and was somewhat abusive, but they did not think he was capable of murder and there was no evidence he was involved in the disappearance of Beverly Potts (Badal, 2005).
Letters sent to paper A huge break in the case happened in April 2000, when a Cleveland newspaper, The Plain Dealer, received a letter that confessed to the murder of Beverly Potts. They forwarded the letter to the police. Throughout the course of the next year and a half, four letters were sent to the Plain Dealer. The letters were analyzed and determined to be all written by the same author, who was likely old and infirm. The author’s handwriting became more cramped and shakier throughout the year. The DNA analysis showed that the writer was male and the stamps he used were sold one year earlier at only two banks. Fingerprint analysis determined that the author of the letters did not leave behind any fingerprints showing that he was either very careful or very old. Fingerprint experts explained to the Cleveland Police that many people's skin gets drier when they get older and the elderly are less likely to leave behind fingerprints than other age groups. While there was trace DNA on the flap of the first envelope which indicated that the writer was male, the other envelopes were sealed with tape most likely as to not leave any DNA.
The writer added details which proved he was at least familiar with the area around Halloran park and Linnet Avenue, leading investigators to believe that he was indeed a local and probably still lived in Cleveland. But the writer also made several errors which damped investigators enthusiasm. The writer claimed that he still had a 1916 quarter that Beverly was carrying with her on the night she disappeared, an odd detail as reports claimed Beverly had left all her money at home when she left for the Showagon, but still the tip had to be thoroughly examined.
The author also alleged that he wrote a confession letter to the coroner in 1967 and asked for a plea deal, but no such letter could be found. Although the coroner from the 1960s, Sam Gerber, was dead those who worked with him denied there was any letter written to him or the office that had amounted to a confession. Gerber’s files were looked through and nothing was found. Likewise, the DA from the time was interviewed and reported that he had heard nothing of such a letter or confession in the 1960s. Furthermore, no one thought the DA or the coroner at the time would have sat on such an important information without telling anyone.
The writer left several other clues as to his identity. He claimed that he was in his 80s, making him in his thirties when he had kidnapped Beverly. He also claimed he was old and sick. His body was racked with cancer, diabetes, and arthritis and the doctor had given him only about a year to live. The old man also claimed that he was going to be buried in Riverside Cemetery, and that he had left a letter with his lawyer that was to be opened and sent to the police upon his death. He mentioned nothing about the lawyer except that he referred to her as “she.”
After a few months without correspondence, the police asked the Plain Dealer to write an article appealing to the writer of the letters. They wanted the letter author to know that due to his age and poor health, he would most likely not be sentenced to prison but rather into a secured assisted living facility if he were to come forward.
In move that surprised everyone, the letter writer wrote back on April 16th and claimed that he would turn himself in on August 24th 2001, the 50th anniversary of the disappearance of Beverly Potts. He would turn himself in at Halloran Park, but he wanted Brent Larkin, the journalist at the Plain Dealer, to be there as well. He claimed that he would come to Halloran Park to turn himself in if he was still living at that time. The penmanship of the third letter was incredibly cramped and even more illegible than the others. Handwriting experts said it was clear that the man was deteriorating in health.
On August 7th 2000, the mysterious letter writer wrote his fourth and final letter. He explained that he would no longer be able to keep his appointment at Halloran Park as he had to go into a nursing home. The writing on this letter was almost impossible to read having been scribbled with such a shaky hand. Detectives were disappointed, but went to Halloran park on the 50th anniversary just in case the man decided to turn himself in. The elderly man did not show, but investigators continued checking nursing home registries, reading obituaries, cross-checking old suspects who still lived in town. At the end of the day the letters were not able to prove anything and many investigators believe the four letters are nothing more than a hoax. Others believe that they are legitimate. Detective Wolfe of the Cold Case Department thinks it is possible that the letter writer was a retired cop or journalist because he knew so much about Beverly's disappearance, recalling details that only those obsessed with the case would care to remember. While he believes by the letter writer is most likely dead and the letters no more than a cruel prank, he's not willing to dismiss the letters entirely (Badal, 2005).
In 2015 a strange tip was called in anonymously to Cleveland crime stoppers regarding the Potts case. The tip was passed on to investigators who determined the tip was solid. Investigators are asking that this tipster call again either to the FBI, CPD, or even crime stoppers as they believe the tip to be valid and any more information the tipster could reveal could be helpful. As of the writing of this piece the tipster has not yet called back (The Charley Project).
TO BE CONTINUED...
Full list of sources in part 2
http://charleyproject.org/case/beverly-rose-potts
submitted by Quirky-Motor to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]


2020.09.26 19:41 ZappaOMatic [OC] On this day 100 years ago, the first game involving an APFA/NFL team took place as the Rock Island Independents defeated the non-league St. Paul Ideals 48–0.

Last Thursday was the 100-year anniversary of the meeting between the representatives of ten teams that would ultimately form the National Football League. My write-up on that historic meeting turned out to be a massive hit, and I'm back with yet another centennial anniversary post. This time, we go from the car showroom to the football field.
100 years ago on September 26, 1920, a team took to the gridiron as a member of the NFL—then known as the American Professional Football Association—for the first time. While it was not a "true" league game as their opponent was not part of the APFA, it marked the start of something big.

The Rock Island Independents

Take a wild guess as to how the Rock Island Independents got their name.
For the first two decades of its existence, the Illinois-based team took on opponents regardless of league affiliation. Walter Flanigan joined the Independents as a player in 1912 before taking over as manager three years later. As the team racked up wins, Flanigan wanted to take his club to a higher level, and he gained that opportunity in 1917 when he challenged the Minneapolis Marines, the self-proclaimed "North West Pro Champs", to a game on Rock Island's home turf. A team record 6,425 fans turned out for the game, though they would fall to the Marines 7–3 (a rematch resulted in a more lopsided defeat of 33–14).[1]
After being shipped off to serve in World War I, Flanigan returned to the football world by cobbling together a slate of local games (all of which were shutout wins for the Independents). In 1919, he set his eyes on the national championship.[1]
As discussed in the last post, there was no "true" national champion as there was no national sanctioning body at the time. A team could win every game in their regional league and declare themselves the national champs without much objection, and that was what many teams did. Since the Independents were, well, independent, Flanigan had another idea to pursue the national title: take on league teams.
To do this, he recruited Minneapolis star quarterback Rube Ursella to his side, and a variety of Marines including local fullback Jerry Mansfield also joined the Independents. However, Flanigan's recruiting may have been too successful as a laundry list of interested players showed up; to weed out the scrubs, he organized a series of foot races and wrestling matches in which the losers were kicked off the team. Once he had a suitable roster, he got to work.[1]
The 1919 Independents would face a challenging slate against the top teams from Ohio and Indiana, including future NFL franchises Columbus Panhandles and Akron Indians. With the exception of a 12–7 defeat at the hands of the Hammond All-Stars, a team that featured an end by the name of George Halas, and a scoreless tie against a decorated Pine Village team, Rock Island would shut out every opponent.[1]

The Bulldog "Beef"

At season's end, the Independents boasted a 9–1–1 record, but Flanigan had one last game on his mind: a date with the undefeated Canton Bulldogs for the national championship on December 7.[1]
Well, Canton star Jim Thorpe said his team had other plans. Like, that was basically what his answer was.
On November 30, Ralph Hay, leader of the Bulldogs, sent a telegram to Flanigan asking what the Independents would offer in exchange for playing the game. A Rock Island fan had attended Canton's win over Hammond the previous week and was promised by the Bulldogs manager that he would consider a game against the Bulldogs as long as the Massillon Tigers beat the Cleveland Tigers (since Massillon had lost to Canton twice earlier in the season).[2]
Massillon won and Hay kept his promise by reaching out to Flanigan, who offered him $5,000 or 45% of the ticket sales. Both numbers had been demanded by Thorpe earlier in the year.[2]
The following evening, Hay called Flanigan and asked for the score of the Rock Island game against Akron. He provided the answer (a 17–0 Independents win), but expressed confusion as to why that was so important for Hay. Hay then told Flanigan to talk to Thorpe before he could agree whether or not to play the game.[2]
An hour and 17 minutes later, Flanigan received a telegram from Thorpe: "Have disbanded team. Cannot meet Rock Island."[2]
Kind of a lame excuse, but it's likely Thorpe also turned it down as the Rock Island/Akron game had only attracted 1,700 fans.[1] Flanigan attempted to reach out to Canton once again with by bumping the offer to $7,000 guaranteed or 50% of the gate.[3] Calls to Hay went unanswered, while one telegram to Thorpe read:[2]
We are offering your team the largest guarantee that it has ever received before, $5,000 or a privilege of 50 per cent for the gate. If you don't accept Rock Island fans will say you are quitters. Wire me your answer."
Thorpe's answer? No. One final call to Thorpe redirected Flanigan to an operator who told him that the Bulldogs player was sick and could not answer.[2]
True to Flanigan's threat, Independents fans and media were quick to brand the Bulldogs as cowards. The Rock Island Argus, a very [2]
Is Canton's famed Bulldogs afraid to risk their title of world's football champions by coming to Rock Island Sunday?
By arranging things in order and arriving at a logical conclusion, there can be but one answer. And that is "yes."
A fan letter to the Argus sports editor:[4]
Dear Sir: Being a real football fan I am like a great many more, disappointed because the Canton Bulldogs have a bad case of yellow. Now I think it would be a nice thing for everyone that has tickets to keep them and give the money which has been paid for admissions to the game, to the team for the splendid showing which they have made.
If anyone does not like the idea let them go and cash up. It seems to me that there would be a very few who would ask for their money back. It would also encourage the boys to come back next fall.
From P. G. M.
A Real Fan
Flanigan wrote to The Daily Times in Davenport:[3]
The Canton game is all off. I offered Hays $7,000 in an attempt to land the game but failed. They did not believe that we defeated Akron until they confirmed, report from Indians direct. It is merely a case of cold, cold feet and a streak of yellow.
Since the Bulldogs weren't going to play the Independents, they automatically declared themselves the national champions.[1] However, the Bulldogs also considered themselves the champs due to their undefeated record.[3]
Yeah, pro football is going to need somebody to settle controversies like this. Maybe a national football league?

Joining the APFA

Although his opinion of the Canton Bulldogs may have soured after their failed championship game, Flanigan was eager to work with Thorpe again.
On September 16, 1920, he boarded a train for Canton, Ohio to participate in a meeting of the top pro football team managers and owners.
"Manager Walter Flanigan left last night for Canton, Ohio, to attend the annual conference of major professional football teams, whose representatives assemble every year to plan the campaign for the world's championship," wrote The Rock Island Argus.[5]
The meeting took place at Hay's car dealership, but the details of that can be found in the last post. Flanigan would be appointed to a three-man committee to write the new league's constitution, joined by Carl Storck of the Dayton Triangles and Stanley Cofall of the Cleveland Tigers.[6]
Upon adjournment, the American Professional Football Association was born. We now have a national football league.

St. Paul Ideals

While the Marines dominated the Minnesota football scene, the St. Paul Ideal Athletic Club was not exactly a juggernaut by comparison, but they were no slouch either. An amateur team, the Ideals entered the 1919 season with the claim that they had lost only thrice since 1914.
In the amateur football section of The Minneapolis Morning Tribune's September 11 issue:[7]
A challenge to Minneapolis fotoball teams has been issued by the Ideals of St. Paul. The Ideals are disirous of booking games with a number of Minneapolis teams, especially the Indians and the East Ends. The St. Paul aggregation claims a record of having been defeated only three times in the last five years. Games already have been arranged with the Billows, Seatons, Hook 'Em Cows and Nicolius. All communications should be addressed to C. R. Woesner, 325 Daly street, St. Paul.
The Marines took up the Ideals' challenge. And promptly walloped them 36–0. Three weeks later, the Ideals tied the Minneapolis Eagles in a scoreless game.[8]
How did they do the rest of the year? I honestly do not know. Media coverage of the Ideals was virtually nonexistent, or at least incredibly difficult to find online. The Pro Football Archives schedule only lists those two games plus two others with no scores, while searches on Newspapers.com and other sites have been mostly fruitless.
Eh, whatever.

Game Day

Build-Up

Rock Island's Douglas Park played host to the Independents' 1920 season opener against the Ideals. Although Rock Island was considered the favorite and was returning its entire starting lineup from the previous year, Flanigan and Ursella were not going to let their guard down.[9]
"A defeat at this time would injure the box office to a big extent besides putting a huge crimp in the chances for a championship team," wrote Frank Weir of The Daily Times.[9]
In the week leading up to kickoff, Ursella ran his team through three-hour practices that included installing new offensive formations and audibles.[10]
The Davenport Democrat and Leader on September 24:[11]
Fearing over-confidence might play a prominent part in Sunday's battle with the St. Paul's Ideals, Coach Ursella last night wired for Chicken, star halfback, and Bob Marshall to report for work at once. Both men will be on hand for tonight's drill at Douglas park. [...]
From all indications Sunday's argument is going to be a heated one. Flanigan at first figured that the St. Paul aggregation would offer only enough resistance to afford his team a good workout but according to the dope which is coming from St. Paul the Ideals are a stronger aggregation than early reports indicated.
Fearing a surprise, Flanigan notified Ursella to get Marshall and Chicken in harness at once.
The Davenport Democrat and Leader on the morning of the game:[12]
Hardened by two weeks' gruelling practice, Rock Island's crack professional football eleven is ready today to open what promises to be the most successful grid season in the history of the professional game in the Tri-City. The St. Paul Ideals, a team of reputation, will offer the opposition and in spite of the fact that this afternoon's contest will be the initial performance for both elevens a bitter struggle is looked for. The game will be played at Douglas park and will be started promptly at 3 o'clock.
The Islanders will enter the fray in he pink of condition, to use the old ring adage. For two weeks Coach Ursella had drilled his team in signals and formations, sprinkling in a few spirited scrimmages between the regulars and second string men. The result is that the Independents will start the season in form that would become an eleven in mis-season condition.
[...]
Saturday the entire city of Rock Island talked football and no doubt football will be talked by the natives of Rock Island for breakfast, dinner and supper today. The city is football crazy.
Today's crowd, no doubt, will be swelled by hundreds of Davenporters whose interest in the Independents is just as keen as the interest of the Rock Island fans. Moline also will undoubtedly send a huge delegation to the game.
Fear Over Confidence
While Coach Ursella is confident that his team is far superior to the St. Paul aggregation, he expressed fear of over-confidence in speaking of the opening clash Saturday.
"The Ideals have played good football for the past three years" stated Ursella, "and I don't believe some of the men are taking the contest seriously enough. I don't want a surprise sprung in this game. I believe I can make the fellows realize they are meeting a tough aggregation, however, before they start in the game."
Bruce Copeland of The Rock Island Argus:[13]
There, football fans, is the first recipe of the season waiting for the expert cuisine of the Douglas park melting pot from which Rock Island hopes will trickle the championship brew at the close of the most eventful football campaign in tri-city history.
Championship dreams of months' duration will first be realized when hundreds of pent-up football enthusiasts from miles around meet tomorrow afternoon at Douglas park and see the green and white jerseyed warriors jog on the field for the first game of the season against the doughty Ideal A. C. of St. Paul.
The game will open a door to a new epoch in tri-city athletics after years of consistent achievements and good sportsmanship. Beyond the portal will be found Championship Way, along which the Independents of 1920 will course; and there isn't a fan in Rock Island who has the slightest doubt that their advance will lead right up to the shrine at the end in which the titular fires are burning.
Tickets were $1.65 plus tax, though attendance was hampered by the weather. After 7,000 fans were expected, only 800 showed up.[13][14]
"As Rube Ursella says, 'Let's go!'"[13]

First Half

As rain fell on Douglas Park, the game began with the Independents winning the coin toss and electing to receive. Left end "Oke" Smith returned the opening kickoff ten yards to his team's 25.[14]
The first offensive play from scrimmage was a nine-yard gain by Mansfield, followed by a 20-yard run by Ursella. A few runs later, halfback Eddie Novak found a hole set up by left tackle Dewey Lyle and scored on a ten-yard run for the first points of the day, capping off a four-minute, 11-play drive.[14]
Although St. Paul's left end Maidl Pavleck returned the ensuing kickoff 20 yards to midfield, his team's opening possession ended after just one play when halfback Cunningham Mikesh lost a fumble that Freeman Fitzgerald recovered. Mansfield broke free and reached the Ideals' 15, and a 12-yard run by Novak set the Independents up at the three. Two plays later, halfback Fred Chicken scored.[14]
The Ideals' next series ended with a three-and-out. After a five-yard run by Mansfield, Ursella completed the first forward pass of the season with a 22-yard throw to Smith to reach St. Paul's 18. By the end of the first quarter, Rock Island was in scoring range at the two-yard line. A play later, Novak punched it in for six.[14]
Down by three scores, St. Paul began to see life when quarterback Parr A. Pahl found E. Dixon O'Brien for a "brilliant forward pass" that went 40 yards. That was ultimately the only good play of the drive as Pahl tried an onside kick (before 1923, the onside kick was legal on scrimmage plays) that Chicken recovered. Both teams exchanged punts shortly after.[14]
Following St. Paul's punt, Chicken's grip on the wet ball slipped, but Mansfield recovered and gained 15 yards before being taken down. A 28-yard run by Chicken placed Rock Island at St. Paul's 38, followed by a 12-yard gain by Paddy Quinn. Three plays later, Mansfield scored again on an 18-yard run.[14]
A 52-yard run by Mikesh put the Ideals in Independents territory, but they could not capitalize as time ran out.[14]

Second Half

After some substitutions, the game resumed with Rock Island kicking off.[14]
A fake punt by Pahl into a lateral to Mikesh on the first play gained three yards. The two attempted a double pass a few plays later, though Mikesh slipped on the mud and fell. As the offense grinded its way into Rock Island's side of the field, yet another double pass placed Mikesh with a lot of open field... until he slipped again.[14]
All offensive progress was ultimately stopped when Pahl was intercepted by Waddy Kuehl, who returned it 82 yards for a pick six.[14]
Mikesh was downed for a 12-yard loss to begin the Ideals' next play from scrimmage, pinning his team at their own eight. Facing immense pressure on the ensuing punt, Pahl dodged the blitz before delivering a quick kick to the St. Paul 32. A 12-yard run by Sid Nichols allowed Rock Island to enter the red zone, where they pounded their way to the end zone yet again on a five-yard run by Mansfield.[14]
The offensive woes continued for the Ideals when Pavleck's pass on a fake punt led to him getting sacked (which was not a term at the time) for 13 yards. Pahl was the next to try a throw, this time succeeding on a 21-yard completion to Pavleck. Mikesh was tackled for an eight-yard loss to end the third quarter.[14]
Down by 42, the Ideals began placing heavy emphasis on feeding Mikesh the ball. St. Paul found themselves in position to score their first points of the game on a drop kick by Pahl from the Rock Island 45, but it was well short and sailed wide left, being caught by Kuehl at his 13.[14]
Nichols let the ball slip through his hands on the next play before Fitzgerald recovered. The Independents' march would see two 22-yard runs, another fumble recover, and an awkward TD score as Kuehl slipped as he crossed the goal line. Nichols missed the extra point.[14]
The final drive of the game saw the Ideals lose a combined 15 yards. Final score: Rock Island 48, St. Paul 0.[14]
The Independents recorded 427 yards on 45 total plays, while the Ideals had just 85 on 52. Rock Island also outgained St. Paul in first downs (17 to five).[14]

Post-Game

Despite the shutout, Weir praised the Ideals, writing in his post-game report that they "displayed a lot more class than this score indicates. The visiting team fought doggedly through the entire four quarters and pulled plays at a surprise nature at intervals that netted long gains. [...]
"The Ideals have a smooth working football team and one that against a less formidable opponent would show some excellent results."[15]
The Davenport Democrat and Leader:[16]
The Independents showed a world of power and lots of spots where sandpaper can be applied profitably. Their offensive was all that could be desired, but the defense was far from perfect. Time and again the visitors would carry the ball to the Rock Island 40-yard line with end runs and line plunges, but that was their high water mark.
None of the Islanders deserve especial citation, all played their part well. Keuhl, Novak and Ursella were extremely clever at eluding the ends, while Novak was always good for four yards thru the line.
Mikesch, St. Paul left halfback, showed a world of speed and pulled off several dazzling end runs thru the entire Islander team. Twice he was stopped on the uncomfortable side of mid-field with only Ursella between him and the two little uprights. Pahl and Pavlick also showed class. Les than 2000 bugs were in attendance.
Copeland:[14]
The score does not indicate the class of the game from the standpoint of interest, for although the Ideals were vastly outplayed in almost every department of the game, they remained a dangerous vector throughout the game that threatened to flaunt the unexpected and thereby cross the Rock Island goal line.
There were several moments during the one-sided contest when breaths were baited from suspense when the Ideals rallied sporadically and cut loose with scoring stuff that was checked only by the most concentrated defense. The Ideals fought gamely to the end through the falling rain that would deter almost any team of such a light weight as the season's initial victims. Outweighed fully 10 pounds to the man, the Ideals made the Independents exert their best, hereby making it one of the best games to witness.
A few days after the game, Flanigan finally got what he wanted the previous year: a game against Jim Thorpe and the Canton Bulldogs, scheduled for November 21.[17]
Well, until everyone on the Independents started getting hurt during the season (including a particularly ugly game in early November against George Halas' Decatur Staleys), leading to its postponement to November 28.[18] The game was ultimately called off as Thorpe felt it was not financially practical, despite Flanigan still being able to provide the $5,000 guarantee.[19]
Flanigan and Rock Island would never play against Thorpe during their time in the NFL. However, in an ironic twist, Thorpe would join the Independents for the 1924 season. The team folded after 1927.[1]

References

[1] THE ROCK ISLAND INDEPENDENTS by Bob Braunwart and Bob Carroll, The Coffin Corner: Vol. 5, No. 3 (1983), Professional Football Researchers Association
[2] CANTON CALLS OFF GAME AFTER LEARNING OF DEFEAT ISLANDERS HANDED OUT TO AKRON TEAM from The Rock Island Argus, December 3, 1919
[3] Sunday's Game Joins Sweet Dreams As $7,000 Is Refused by Bulldogs from The Daily Times, December 5, 1919
[4] "GIVE BOYS JACK INSTEAD REFUND" SAYS LOYAL FAN from The Rock Island Argus, December 6, 1919
[5] ARGUS TO GIVE BOOSTER SHEET TO HELP CAUSE from The Rock Island Argus, September 16, 1920
[6] Associating in Obscurity from the Professional Football Researchers Association
[7] AMATEUR FOOTBALL from The Minneapolis Morning Tribune, September 11, 1919
[8] Parks End Season Sunday Meeting St. Paul Ideals from The Minneapolis Morning Tribune, November 19, 1919
[9] INDEPENDENTS OPEN SEASON WITH IDEAL A. C. TOMORROW: 1919 TEAM NOW GATHERED by Frank Weir, The Daily Times, September 25, 1920
[10] Islander Team Drilling Hard for First Tilt from The Davenport Democrat and Leader, September 22, 1920
[11] IDEALS NO EASY MARKS ON FIELD, R. I. BOSS LEARNS from The Davenport Democrat and Leader, September 24, 1920
[12] TIPPING OF GRID LID TO DRAW RECORD CROWD from The Davenport Democrat and Leader, September 26, 1920
[13] ST. PAUL TEAM NO SETUP FOR OPENING GAME by Bruce Copeland, The Rock Island Argus, September 25, 1920
[14] Speed and Brawn Win for Islanders; Score, 48-0 by Bruce Copeland, The Rock Island Argus, September 26, 1920
[15] INDEPENDENTS, WITH FULL STRENGTH, WIN OVER IDEAL A. C. ON MUDDY FIELD, 48-0 by Frank Weir, The Daily Times, September 27, 1920
[16] Independents Swamp Ideal A.C. 48-0 in First Tilt of the Season from The Davenport Democrat and Leader, September 27, 1920
[17] Rock Island Plays Thorpe's Indians from The Des Moines Evening Tribune, September 29, 1920
[18] Rock Island and Canton to Meet at Douglas Park on Sunday, Nov. 28 from The Davenport Democrat and Leader, November 16, 1920
[19] COLLEGIANS TO MAKE ISLANDERS STEP by Bruce Copeland, The Rock Island Argus, November 22, 1920
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2020.09.25 20:35 Rsubs33 [Game Preview] Week 3 - Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles(0-2)

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)
The Eagles are off to their worst start with a real coach since 2003 (I consider 2013-2015 non-existent) when they also dropped their first two games of the season. The team would like a repeat of that season where following a week 3 bye,the team rebounded to defeat the Bills 23-13. The Eagles ripped off 12 wins in their remaining 14 games following their 0-2 start. Maybe the Eagles will be able to do the same, but they will have to shake the injury bug first. The Eagles will be without first round pick Jalen Raegor this week who underwent surgery on his hand to repair a torn UC ligament in his thumb. The Eagles may also be without Fletcher Cox who is dealing with an oblique injury. The Cox injury should be watched closely if he can’t go, Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow will have a much easier day against the struggling defense. Last week against the Rams, the defense was under prepared and unable to stop anyone. The Rams took advantage of Jim Schwartz’s consistently odd decision to have his CBs, play so far off the line of scrimmage, giving a free release to the WRs and allowing easy short passes. If Schwartz does the same this week, it will be another long day for the Eagles defense and a great fantasy day for Tyler Boyd, who Bengals Joe Burrow connected with 7 times last week including 1 for a TD. On the other side of the ball Doug and Carson will both need to be better than the last two weeks. For Carson, he needs to get out of his own head and play with confidence. For Doug, he needs to find some creativity and help his 5th year QB. He would do well to get Carson moving and utilize the RBs more in the flat and screen game. However, if we see more of the same we saw in weeks 1 and 2 from the Eagles coaching staff, we should expect another loss. Hopefully that is not the case and Carson and the coaches can learn from their mistakes in weeks 1-2 and pull our a win this week. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to [join us on Discord]https://discord.gg/HwwBbM3) during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, September 27th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
10L00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 78°F
Feels Like: 78°F
Forecast: Clear. Partly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 1%
Cloud Coverage: 31%
Wind: South Southwest 8 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Eagles -5
OveUnder: 46.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-2, Cincinnati 1-0-1
Where to Watch on TV
CBS will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Spero Dedes will handle the play-by-play duties and Adam Archuleta will provide analysis.
TV Map - Week 3 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Bengals Radio
Bengals Radio Dan Hoard will handle play-by-play and Dave Lapham will provide analysis for the game.
National Radio
Compass Media will broadcast the game nationally with Chris Carrino handling the play by play and Brian Baldinger will provide analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Bengals Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 81 (Streaming 825) SIRI 105 (Streaming 806)
XM Radio XM 226 (Streaming 825) Streaming 806
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Streaming 825) SXM 385 (Streaming 806)
Eagles Social Media Bengals Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: officialbengals
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 1-1 .500 1-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 42 47 -5 1L
Cowboys 1-1 .500 1-0 0-1 0-0 1-1 57 59 -2 1W
Eagles 0-2 .000 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-2 36 64 -28 2L
Giants 0-2 .000 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-1 39 43 -14 2L
Series Information
The Cincinnati Bengals lead the Philadelphia Eagles(Cincinnati Bengals lead series, 9-3-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 19th, 1971 at Riverfront Stadium, Cincinnati, OH . CIncinnati Bengals 37 Philadelphia Eagles 14
Points Leader
Cincinnati Bengals lead Philadelphia Eagles (360-222)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-1 against the Bengals
Zac Taylor: 0-0 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Zac Taylor: First meeting between coaches
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Rams: 0-1
Joe Burrow: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Joe Burrow: First meeting between QBs.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Bengals lead Eagles: 2-0
Record @ Paul Brown Stadium: Bengals lead Eagles 1-0-1
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Bengals No. 28
Record
Eagles: 0-2
Bengals: 0-2
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 4th, 2016
Eagles 32 - Rams 14
Andy Dalton threw a pair of touchdown passes and Cincinnati finally got its depleted offense moving without receiver A.J. Green, and the Bengals sent the Philadelphia Eagles to their most lopsided loss of the season, 32-14 on Sunday.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday December 13th, 2012
Bengals 34 - Eagles 13
Andy Dalton threw a touchdown pass and ran for another score, an opportunistic defense forced five turnovers, and Cincinnati beat the Philadelphia Eagles 34-13 on Thursday night. The Eagles offense imploded turning the ball over 4 times with another turnover on a kick off. At one point the Eagles turned the ball over on 3 straight possessions. The Eagles lost double digit games for the first time since 2005, in one of the last games the Eagles were coached by Andy Reid.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/4/2016 Bengals Eagles 32-14
12/13/2012 Bengals Eagles 34-13
11/16/2008 Bengals & Eagles 13-13
1/2/2005 Bengals Eagles 38-10
12/24/2000 Eagles Bengals 16-7
11/30/1997 Eagles Bengals 44-42
12/24/1994 Bengals Eagles 33-30
11/17/1991 Eagles Bengals 17-10
9/11/1988 Bengals Eagles 28-24
11/21/1982 Bengals Eagles 18-14
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Bengals Bengals
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 3 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Bengals Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 50 85 58.8% 512 2 4 64.4
Burrow 60 97 61.9% 509 3 1 81.5
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 20 95 95 4.8 1
Mixon 35 115 57.5 3.3 0
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Goedert 12 131 65.5 10.9 1
Boyd 11 105 52.5 9.5 1
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Sweat/Graham 1.0 4
Lawson/Bynes 1.0 2
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 17 8 9 0.0
Bell/Bynes 16 6/7 10/9 0/1.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
N/A 0 0
Jackson III 1 1
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 7 389 62 55.6 49.1 4 1 0
Huber 8 428 70 53.5 43.5 3 3 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 4 3 75.0% 38 3/3
Bullock 6 5 83.3% 50 4/4
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 3 61 20.3 25 0
Wilson 3 131 43.7 45 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Raegor 2 6 3.0 6 0 2
Erickson 2 29 14.5 29 0 1
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Total Offense 314.0 28th 324.0 26h
Rush Offense 89.0 29th 95.0 26th
Pass Offense 225.0 23rd 229.0 22nd
Points Per Game 18.0 T-27th 21.5 23rd
3rd-Down Offense 46.2% T-11th 43.8 15th
4th-Down Offense 0.0% T-25th 100.0 T-1st
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 60.0% T-14th 40.0% 30th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Total Defense 344.0 9th 398.0 22nd
Rush Defense 135.5 22nd 185.0 30th
Pass Defense 208.5 5th 213.0 7th
Points Per Game 32.0 26th 25.5 T-16th
3rd-Down Defense 40.0% 10th 45.8% 20th
4th-Down Defense 66.7% T-19th 25.0% T-9th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 77.8% 27th 62.5% 16th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Turnover Diff. -5 32nd -2 T-25th
Total Penalties 8 5th 11 T-12th
Total Penalty Yards 50 2nd 89 13th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - The Eagles' struggles continued in their home opener against the Los Angeles Rams. An early fumble by Miles Sanders led to a Rams touchdown by Tyler Higbee. After the Eagles cut their deficit to four with a Jake Elliott field goal, Los Angeles responded with a Robert Woods touchdown run followed by a second Higbee touchdown catch. Trailing 21-3, the Eagles closed the deficit to five points by halftime with touchdown runs by Wentz and Sanders. After forcing a three-and-out on the Rams' first possession of the second half, the Eagles would drive to the Los Angeles 21, only for Wentz's first down pass to be picked off by Darious Williams, turning the momentum back in the Rams' favor as they would outscore the Eagles 16-3 the rest of the way. Despite not being sacked once during the game, Wentz finished the day with a 56.5 passer rating, completing 26 of 43 passes for 242 yards and two interceptions. The 37-19 blowout loss dropped Philadelphia to 0-2 for the first time since the 2015 season, and marked the Eagles' first home opener loss since that same season. It was also the first home loss to the Rams franchise since the opener of the 2001 season.
Bengals - After losing their regular season-opening game at home, the Bengals then traveled to Cleveland to face the Browns for Battle of Ohio Round 1. In the first quarter, the Bengals scored first when Randy Bullock kicked a 38-yard field goal to make it 3-0. Though, the Browns took the lead when Nick Chubb ran for an 11-yard TD to make it 7-3. In the second quarter, the Browns went up by double digits when Baker Mayfield found O'dell Beckham Jr. on a 43-yard TD pass to make it 14-3. The Bengals then came within 4 after Joe Burrow found C.J. Uzomah on a 23-yard TD pass to make it 14-10. Mayfield then found Kareem Hunt on a 6-yard TD pass to put the Browns up by double digits, 21-10. The Bengals closed out the half when Randy Bullock kicked a 43-yard field goal to make it 21-13 at halftime. In the third quarter, the Browns went back up by double digits when Chubb ran for a 1-yard TD to make it 28-13. The Bengals drew closer with Bullock's 27-yard field goal to make it 28-16. In the fourth quarter, the Bengals were able to get within 5 when Burrow found Mike Thomas on a 4-yard TD pass to make the score 28-23. Though, the Browns would go back up by double digits yet again when Hunt punched the ball in for a 1-yard TD to make it 35-23. The Bengals wrapped up the scoring when Burrow found Tyler Boyd on a 9-yard TD pass to make the final score 35-30.
Connections
Bengals HC Zac Taylor is the older brother of Eagles QB Press Taylor.
Bengals TE Coach James Casey played two seasons for the Eagles from 2013-2014.
Bengals assistant Special Teams coach Colt Anderson played 4 seasons for the Eagles from 2010-2013.
Eagles Run game coordinatodefensive line coach Matt Burke was the LB coach for the Bengals from 2014-2015.
Eagles DB coach Marquand Manuel played for the Bengals from 2002-2003.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Bengals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) DT Geno Atkins
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Adrian Hill
Philadelphia hosts Cincinnati at Lincoln Financial Field for just the third time in the all-time series and first time since 2012. Sunday marks the 14th overall meeting between the two teams.
The Eagles are 23-10 (.697) at home in the regular season under head coach Doug Pederson, which is tied for the 6th-best home winning percentage in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New En-gland (.818, 27-6), Baltimore (.758, 25-8), Kansas City (.758, 25-8), New Orleans (.727, 24-9) and Green Bay (.712, 23-9-1).
In Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams, Miles Sanders combined for 131 scrim-mage yards (3rd-most in a single game in his career), including 95 rushing (1 TD) and 36 receiving. In 2019, Sanders led his class with a franchise-rookie-record 1,327 scrimmage yards.
Brandon Graham recorded sack No. 52 of his NFL career against Rams QB Jared Goff in Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams. His 52.0 sacks are the 5th-most in Eagles history, behind Reggie White (124.0, 1985-92), Trent Cole (85.5, 2005-14), Clyde Simmons (76.0, 1986-93) and Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04).
Draft Picks
Eagles Bengals
WR Jalen Raegor QB Joe Burrow
QB Jalen Hurts WR Tee Higgins
LB Davion Taylor LB Logan Wilson
S K’Von Wallace LB Akeem Davis-Gaither
OT Jack Driscoll DE Khalid Kareem
WR John Hightower T Hakeem Adeniji
LB Shaun Bradley LB Marcus Bailey
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Bengals
S Will Parks NT DJ Reader
DT Javon Hargrave CB Trae Waynes
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman CB Mackensie Alexander
CB Darius Slay G Xavier Su’a-Filo
LB Josh Bynes
WR Mike Thomas
S Vonn Bell
CB Leshaun Sims
RB Jacques Patrick
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Bengals
S Malcom Jenkins QB Andy Dalton
CB Ronald Darby CB Dre Kirkpatrick
RB Jordan Howard G John Miller
WR Nelson Agholor OT Cordy Glenn
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai TE Tyler Eifert
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill WR Marqise Lee
RB Darren Sproles CB Darqueze Dennard
DT Timmy Jernigan DT Andrew Billings
LB Nigel Bradham S Clayton Fejedelem
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (99) needs 1 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6386 needs 79 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (52) needs 2.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker
Bengals WR AJ Green (8987) needs 13 yards to reach 9000 receiving yards for his career.
Bengals WR AJ Green (63) needs 3 receiving TDs to move into a tie with Chad Johnson for the most receiving TDs in Bengals history.
Stats to Know
QB Adjusted Completion %
What’s one thing rookie Joe Burrow and 5th-year Carson Wentz have in common? They have not been terribly accurate so far. PFF has an Adjusted Completion % stat that accounts for clear drops, spikes, throw aways, batted passes, and throws made while getting hit. Burrow and Wentz are near the bottom in AC%, with 70.4 and 70.3, respectively. Interesting to note a bit of the distribution within the array of aforementioned stats: while Burrow has had one of the lower rates of on-target passes dropped by the receiver (4.1%), Wentz doubled that at 8.4%, good for 5th-highest. Yes, Wentz has stunk, but...
Matchups to Watch
Rookie versus Veteran, Which QB Has Poise Down 0-2?
With two consecutive weeks of porous defense from both the Eagles and Bengals defensive units, this Sunday's matchup should rest squarely on the shoulders of each offensive unit. Will the Eagles be able to rely on fifth year starter Wentz? Will he be able to shake off two tumultuous weeks and put together a consistent offensive performance? Will the Bengals weapons coalesce around their rookie Burrow? Will he be able to put together his first complete NFL game and demonstrate that this season is the turning point for the franchise? A big piece of Wentz stabilizing his game time performance will be continuing his focus on short-time-to-throw plays. From Week 1 with 8 sacks versus the Washington Football Team to Week 2 and zero sacks versus the Rams with the vaunted Aaron Donald, the Eagles Offensive Line and Wentz’ pocket choices resulted in less lost yards and broken plays. Unfortunately, key turnovers again forced short-yardage scoring situations and massive tempo swings. Wentz needs to take advantage of the cleaner pocket that will likely be available versus the Bengals (2 sacks on the year so far) and finish drives cleanly to put the game away. Without rookie WR Jalen Reagor (placed on IR with a thumb injury after Week 2), Wentz will have to make use of the remainder of his threats, including veteran DeSean Jackson who had 6 catches on 9 targets for 64 yards against the superior Rams’ defensive backfield. Joe Burrow has had the classic introductory NFL QB experience. A high-flying game versus the Browns last week, with 300+ yards passing, 3TDs and zero ints was fantastic bounce back from Week 1 versus the Chargers. 193 yards, 0 TDs, and an int will not win the game for the Bengals versus the Eagles, even if Wentz struggles. A key focus for Burrow will be settling into the routine and relationships he’s formed with his offensive weapons. AJ Green remains one of the best WR threats in the NFL and his slow start to the season (8 catches for 80 yards) could end at any time, in any game with a QB like Burrow. Burrow threw a nearly record setting number of passes during the almost-come-from-behind loss versus the Browns; if the Bengals are able to establish their run-game and abuse the Philadelphia secondary in a similar way to the Rams offensive scheme, then Burrow could have a very big day. If he is forced to drop back 60+ times, and Joe Mixon is again held under 75 yards on the ground, the Bengals and Burrow may have a hard time. Keep an eye on how comfortable each QB is feeling, and whether they can establish good tempo. That will be key to offensive production this weekend.
Coaching Conundrum; Pederson versus Taylor
At the core of the NFL these days is the combat between offensive and defensive schemes. Both coaches come from a background of coaching QB play and offensive schemes, though from different eras and coaching trees. How they go about using that experience to enable their teams to a secure a necessary win this week will make or break their seasons. Doug Pederson, at the helm of a revamped offensive coaching tree with the addition of Quarterbacks Coach Press Taylor as Passing Game Coordinator, has had a rough three year stretch of offensive stumbles. Since the miraculous Super Bowl 52 season (2017), the Eagles have consistently failed to be productive, with a lot of the challenges relating to lack of roster depth and poor player improvement through misaligned coaching. This is the third consecutive year of stuttering offense to begin the season and a big piece of the matchup versus the Bengals will be how well the Eagles can settle in. Coach Pederson has made it clear that the lack of full-speed off-season practice plays a big role in the Eagle’s struggles so far; so it remains to be seen when and if both units can make use of this gametime practice to solidify the small flashes of prior success we’ve seen. Opposite Pederson is Coach Taylor, in his second year of a complete rebuild, now with the (ideally career-long) franchise WB in Burrow. Hailing from the Shanahan line, through the LA Rams McVay, Taylor was brought into Cincinnati to recreate the organization’s coaching structure and form a new core for the team around veteran WR AJ Green. The 2019 season showed marked improvement throughout, particularly in run production and passer protection; the addition of Covid-related practice limitations have also taken their toll on the Bengals’ preparations for this season, as exemplified by the Week 1 drubbing by the Ravens. Taylor returns this season with second-year offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, formerly the QB coach for the Raiders. The cerebral talent in the Bengals organization is clearly arrayed around giving Burrow the best possible chance to shine; and they may just do so against an extremely poorly performing Eagles defense. Being able to establish consistent offensive strength and consistency throughout this season will be a key part of whether this new coaching structure is able to flourish in Cincinnati or if yet more change is needed to remake the franchise. During game day, keep an eye out on how these coaches make use of their star players, now that the very early season yips and stumbles should be behind them. Whoever can appropriately adjust to the flow of the game and take advantage of the others mistakes will win this football game.
The Big Punt: How Special Teams Makes An Impact
Kevin versus Cameron, Huber versus Johnston, two players that may very well decide the nature of this Bengals versus Eagles matchup. These titans of the turf, two punters to rule them all, and two punters to pin them deep; two punters waiting on call, and two punters to make fans weep. In lieu of offensive production, and in hopes of good defensive play, Kevin Huber and Cameron Johnston bring their punting prowess to Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday. Hailing from opposite sides of the Earth, Huber from Cincinnati itself, and Johnston from Geelong Australia, these two are some of the most capable foot-based deliverers of the football to opposing teams. Huber holds nearly all of the Bengals franchise records in punting statistics; and Johnston holds the highest gross and net punting averages in a single Eagles season. The third year Australian punter is known by Eagles fans for his insanely long hang-time and penchant for pinning the NY Giants inside the 20 (20+ times in four games). Huber is loved by the Bengals fanbase as both their longest tenured player and his consistency over the past 13 years. He has missed just 2 of 180 possible games, and has been perennially top 10 at his position. Both players are in the final year of their contracts, so effective performance is a must for maximum salary gains. Keep an eye out on how effective these two are in establishing and keeping good field position. If both teams are struggling for consistency, these swings may be the key to a late drive that puts the game away. Additionally, with every punt comes the magic of a muffed punt return. If you’re a particular connoisseur of special teams play, watch and see if these punters add any special spin or location to their strikes; and key turnover last week in this position kept the Eagles hopeful. Maybe lightning will strike twice for the Eagles Special Teams and the Wizard with the Large Leg, Cam Johnston; maybe the Bengals gunners will scoop up a muff and Huber will be huger than expected. Stay tuned!
Special thanks to belisaurius and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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2020.08.03 20:58 ShounenDrip Noah Sutton, Son of Iris

General Information

Name: Noah Augustine Sutton
Nickname: Auggie, August, Gus
Birthday: August 15th
Age: 16
Hometown: Cleveland, Ohio
Orientation: Hetrosexual

Family


Relationship Name Age
Father Christian "Chris" Sutton 40
Mother Iris ???
Step Mother Denise Sutton 36
Step Sister Cristina Sutton 7

Appearance

Faceclaim: Channing Tatum 1
Hair: Noah sports a buzz cut, preferring to keep his hair pretty short
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 176 lbs
Physique: Broad shouldered and muscular in build
Other Physical Traits
Clothing: Noah's outfits usually consist of a pair of straight legged jeans with some kind of t-shirt, sleeved shirt, or hoodie. He's a sneaker head so he pairs his outfits with different name brand sneakers like Nike or Jordans.
Accessories

Personality

Noah is known to be a very nonchalant guy, he meets any conflict that comes his way with the same relaxed attitude and usually able to get over things quite easily. He likes to portray this tough character who isn't bothered by much but in reality he's the type of guy to cry at the end of movies. However when he does reach the point of anger, he likes to use his fist to solve problems. He considers himself a pretty boring person as he doesn't do much outside of working, playing video games, watching TV, and states that in a video game he would be the sidekick to the main character.
Likes
Dislikes

Abilities & Skills

Other Proficiencies

Other

Trivia
Noah's Playlist

Background

Noah was born in Cleveland, Ohio, living with just his father up. His father, Chris, worked as a pastry chef and decided upon starting up his own bakery much to Noah's delight. When he turned 12, Noah would often be seen helping his father around the bakery, where he discovered he truly had a passion for it. One day a woman came into the bakery to pick up an order and as soon as Chris and the woman's eyes met, they were in love. Noah's father and step-mom were married after 2 years of dating, Noah didn't really mind it, he thought she was nice enough. Once High School started, Noah was typically the kid in the back of the classroom struggling to stay awake during lessons and was pretty quiet. He eventually fell into a group of guys who had a tendency to make fun and bully a number of kids around the school, often relying on old school bully techniques such as swirlies and stuffing kids into lockers/trashcans. While Noah wasn't always the aggressor in these situations, he helped whenever asked. Within the group was a boy named, Owen, who quickly became one of Noah's closest friends. When not at school, he spends the majority of his time playing video games and watching tv, along with Owen as he would rather do than go to parties with some of his other acquaintances. Owen was always looking out for him and sometimes wouldn't leave Noah's side, which he found strange but didn't mind. After an incident with the school principal who wasn't exactly human, Owen urged Noah to pack up quickly, giving no time to explain. A note to Noah's father was left saying he was going on a trip with Owen and his family before they hit the road that night.

Now

Noah threw his duffel bag over his shoulder and began picking up speed as he looked backed over his shoulder and could still see the two men chasing him down. Come on Noah...the last thing you need is these two knuckleheads catching you. He enters the forest, hoping to lose the men on the inside and was doing a damn good job of it. Noah eventually crosses the broader of the camp and looks back to see the men no where in sight. He plops down on the ground and gives a good look at his white shoes now covered in dirt and mud "I knew I should've worn something else..." the minute he starts wiping some of the dirt off them, an image of a rainbow appears over his head and catches his attention. "Really?" He says as throws his hands up, momentarily forgetting about his shoes.
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2020.08.01 12:10 jagsfanski Offseason Review Series: Jacksonville Jaguars

Before anything, I just want to preface by saying that I am filling in some huge shoes by following the legendary u/JaguarGator9. I am NOT a typical writer nor do I have any experience in analysis, I just wanted to take a stab at analyzing and writing about my favorite team that has been terrorizing my happiness for 15+ years. So, apologies in advance if there are some incorrect points made.
Also gotta give a shoutout to u/PlatypusOfDeath for continuing to run this series and for the formatting help! Also a thanks to u/flounder19 for directing me towards the thread where half of the info comes from and my bro u/MikeFanto4 for giving me the positive reinforcement through the writing of this. With that being said, hope y'all enjoy!

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFCS

2019 Record: 6-10 (4th in Division)

Coaching Changes

Fires:

Tom Coughlin – VP of Football Operations/Dictator: This will be discussed in the news section. Please hold.
Jon DeFilippo – Offensive Coordinator: It never really occurred to me until recently (give me a break Jags fans), that the firing of Flip was most likely directly related to Foles (even more so once he got hired by Chicago as QB coach). Once Foles was gone, Flip wanted out and they ultimately “mutually agreed to part ways”. While according to fans it would’ve been nice to see the other coordinator go, it shows that the front office “admitted” their mistake and decided to move on from the experiment.
Scott Milanovich – QB Coach: Milanovich took a job as the HC of the Edmonton Eskimos in the CFL. Before his 3-year stint in Jacksonville, he was the HC of the Toronto Argonauts in the CFL where he won the Grey Cup in 2012 and was also named Coach of the Year.

Hires:

Jay Gruden – Offensive Coordinator – The once HC of the Washington Football Team, Gruden comes into the organization bringing experience in molding younger quarterbacks. A big help is the fact that GM Dave Caldwell brought in a few players familiar with his scheme to assist in adjusting the other players to the playbook. Of all the OC candidates, Gruden is best fit for Minshew’s playstyle due to his West Coast Offense.
Ben McAdoo – Quarterbacks Coach: Brought in to replace Milanovich, McAdoo also brings HC experience to the team. Even though his time in the Giants organization is best left to be forgotten, his experience as an OC and QB coach makes him a prime candidate. He spent two seasons in Green Bay working with Aaron Rodgers and also helped the Giants to the 6th best scoring offense in the NFL in 2015.
Denard Robinson – Offensive Quality Control Coach: Not really a huge hire, but a nice reunion. Former QB turned RB, Denard “Shoelace” Robinson, continues his time in Duval as an assistant. He was drafted in the 5th round of the 2013 draft as an “Offensive Weapon” but played primarily at RB during his time as a player.

Free Agency/Trades

Players Lost/Traded

Player Position New Team Compensation
Nick Foles QB Bears Compensatory 4th round draft pick
Calais Campbell DE Ravens 5th round pick
A.J. Bouye CB Broncos 4th round pick
Marcell Dareus DT Free Agent
Marqise Lee WR Patriots 1 yr / $1,047,500
Jake Ryan ILB Free Agent
Cedric Ogbuehi RT Seahawks 1 yr / $2,300,000

Key Losses:

Nick Foles: After signing him to a MASSIVE 4-year contract worth $88 million, with $51 million guaranteed, the Jaguars thought they had their man in Super Bowl MVP Big Dick Nick. However, that did not live long since Foles broke his left clavicle during a 35-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark. Once he was replaced by Bomb-Chuckin’ and Mom-Fuckin’ Gardner Minshew II, he was basically left as an afterthought in the Jaguars fanbase…..until the bye week. He was named the starter for the rest of the season and was severely disappointing in his limited time as it, thus resulting in him being benched after 3 games. In his time as a starter, he completed 77 passes for a completion percentage of 65.8%, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, with a passer rating of 84.6. He was largely disappointing in his time here but left the door open for Minshew Mania. Foles was traded to the Bears for a 2020 Compensatory 4th round pick AND took parts of his massive contract and helped us start the return from cap hell. D+ for his play, B for the trade return.
Calais Campbell: I’m like, really upset about this one. I remember exactly where I was when I found out that this glorious human was traded to the Baltimore Ravens for a 5th round pick. Chump change for the 2019 Walter Payton Man of the Year award recipient. After being signed to a 4-year deal worth $60 million with $30 million guaranteed in 2017, the man proceeded to become the Mayor of the Defensive Line Formerly Known as Sacksonville. Amassing 31.5 sacks, 77 QB hits and 44 TFL in his 3 years on the team; not only was he a force on the field, he was very much involved in the Phoenix and Jacksonville communities. In 2019, Campbell won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award – given to the NFL player that best demonstrates outstanding community service and excellence on the field. His charity, CRC Foundation, has been helping young people with critical life skills since 2009. Adding to that, he has also hosted many holiday shopping sprees, the JaxPAL Youth Football and STEM Camp and has spent countless hours speaking encouragement to children in area schools. The fact that the Jaguars let him go for a 2020 5th round pick says a lot about what the teams feels about their cap situation. A for play, D- for trade return.
A.J. Bouye: Bouye was signed in 2017 as a free agent from Houston. His final season on the Texans is what attracted the Jaguars the most, landing him a 5-year contract worth $67.5 million with $26 million guaranteed. In his time with the team, he accrued 8 interceptions, 34 passes defended, and allowed just a 64.4 completion percentage when thrown to since 2018. 2017 was by far his best season opposite Jalen Ramsey in which they formed one of the most feared duos that year. He saw significant drop off in the 2 years to follow, leading to the team wanting to move in a different direction. He was traded to the Denver Broncos for a 2020 4th round pick and saving over $11 million from his remaining contract. B for play, C+ for trade return.
Marcell Dareus: Dareus was traded from the Bills to the Jaguars mid-season 2017 for a 2018 6th round pick to help solidify the lone run-defense weakness in what was a near impeccable defense. Although his stats don’t show it, (2.5 sacks, 45 combined tackles, 4 TFL and 5 QB hits) when healthy, he was a stud in the run game. The Jaguars ultimately decided not to pick up his 2020-year option and he remains a free agent. A team struggling in the run game could pick him up for cheap and I’m not 100% sure why he hasn’t been signed by a team yet. Dave Caldwell has said he is open to bringing him back on a separate deal, but hasn't acted on it yet. C

Players Signed

Player Position Old Team Length Salary
Tyler Eifert TE Bengals 2 years $9,500,000
Joe Schobert ILB Browns 5 years $53,750,000
Chris Thompson RB The Washington Football Team 1 year $1,400,000
Al Woods DT Seahawks 1 year $2,500,000
Rashaan Melvin CB Lions 1 year $1,750,000
Mike Glennon QB Raiders 1 year $1,187,500
Rodney Gunter DE Cardinals 3 years $18,000,000
Aaron Lynch OLB Bears 1 year $1,100,000
Cassius Marsh DE Cardinals 1 year $1,047,500
Lerentee McCray OLB Jaguars 1 year $1,047,500
Tyler Shatley C Jaguars 1 year $1,512,500
Keelan Cole WR Jaguars 1 year $3,259,000
Brian Price DT Jaguars 2 year $1,815,000
Yannick Ngakoue DE Jaguars 1 year TAG $17,788,000
Source: Spotrac.com
 
Notes
Tyler Eifert: Going into the offseason, the biggest hole in an already lackluster offense was the Tight End position. The Jaguars drafted Josh Oliver in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft to help with that, but he went down with a hamstring injury in the preseason and a back injury during the regular season which limited him to 3 games. James O’Shaughnessy was one of Minshew’s favorite targets but went down with an ACL injury early on as well. Tyler Eifert comes in already familiar with Jay Gruden’s offense. The Jaguars are taking a risk in signing Eifert if they expect him to play even close to his 2015 production (52 catches for 615 yards and 13 touchdowns). However, if he stays healthy and can play even half as good, that’s a massive upgrade over what our Tight End group has produced over the past 5+ years. A 2-year contract worth $9.5 million filled with incentives should give Eifert the motivation to stay healthy and contribute immediately. But if he doesn’t produce as expected, the team should be able to release him with little cap hit. C+
Joe Schobert: Schobert from the Cleveland Browns could be considered the teams’ “marquee” free agent, signing a 5-year, $53.75 million contract with $21.5 million guaranteed. He comes into a linebacker corps that hasn’t had a true MLB since Posluszny retired. This addition allows Myles Jack to move to weak side and gives the opportunity for competition at strong side. Schobert gives the Jaguars a leadership type figure in an already incredibly young defense. Since Telvin Smith retired and decided to be stupid (more on that later on) and Poz choosing to hang up the cleats as well, there hasn’t been someone that could command the defense; Jack tried previously but had probably his worst year to date. Schobert solidifying the middle also gives Jack the opportunity to use his athleticism on the outside. Schobert is top 10 in pass coverage, but still needs to improve in the run game (which is something the team has struggled in for years). I feel like this is a boom-or-bust signing, but am cautiously optimistic. B+
Chris Thompson: Leonard Fournette is still this team’s workhorse back. Rumors started spreading that he would be traded prior to the draft, which ultimately fell flat. Just because the Jags are going to rely on Fournette even more, doesn’t mean that Minshew doesn’t need as many weapons as possible. This is another signing that works well with Gruden’s offense since he had played for him in Washington. This also gives Minshew another weapon out of the backfield. On the other hand, this is another signing that is based solely on whether he can stay healthy or not. A one year, prove-it deal worth $1.4 million is smart on the teams end because when healthy, Thompson can still have the capability to make plays. B
Rodney Gunter: A Calais Campbell clone? Probably not, but a man can dream right? The DE from Arizona signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million to pretty much help rotate through his old position, though. He hasn’t really shown much as a pass rusher (11 sacks in 5 years) but will probably be a rotational piece mostly used in run downs. C
Rashaan Melvin: With the departure of Bouye, the team looked thin at the position prior to the draft. The Jags also hit a homerun with their previous CB signing from Detroit, DJ Hayden. Melvin comes in on another one-year deal to compete with last years UDFA surprise, Tre Herndon for the CB2 spot opposite CJ Henderson. In his 4 years with Detroit, Oakland and Indianapolis, he posted 4 INT and 41 Passes Defended and 2 FF. This puts some competition in camp (if there is one) with experience vs. potential. B-
Al Woods: Caldwell goes in again on defense and signs the large run-stuffer from Seattle on a 1-year, $2.5 million deal. The loss of Marcel Dareus put a large hole in the already weak run defense and Woods helps plug it back in with a decent resume stuffing the middle. This gives the Jags a nice rotation between him, Abry Jones and Davon Hamilton. B EDIT: As of posting this, Al Woods has opted out of the 2020 season.

Draft

After trading away Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye and Nick Foles, the Jaguars ended up with a total of 12 draft picks (most in franchise history).
 
Round Number Player Position School
1 9 (9) CJ Henderson CB Florida
1 20 (20) from Rams K’Lavon Chaisson DE/LB LSU
2 10 (42) Laviska Shenault Jr. WR Colorado
3 9 (73) DaVon Hamilton DT Ohio State
4 10 (116) Ben Bartch OL St. Johns (Minn.)
4 31 (137) from Broncos Josiah Scott CB Michigan State
4 34 (140) from Bears Shaquille Quarterman LB Miami
5 12 (157) from Ravens Daniel Thomas S Auburn
5 20 (165) from Rams (Fowler trade) Collin Johnson WR Texas
6 10 (189) Jake Luton QB Oregon State
6 27 (206) Tyler Davis TE Georgia Tech
7 9 (223) Chris Claybrooks CB/Return Specialist Memphis
 

Analysis

C.J. Henderson: There was a lot of speculation as to who Caldwell was going to draft with the first of 2 first round picks. Was it going to be an OL? WR? QB?(for some reason). Dave ultimately went with the heir to the Ramsey throne. Gone are the days of back injuries and in are the days of another Florida school product. This man is 6-foot 204lb and is extremely good in coverage, which is something that the team needs in replacement of Ramsey. One glaring weakness in his game is his tackling, which seems like there is some hesitation and looks to often miss open field tackles. He immediately fills the CB1 role that was previously held by surprise UDFA Tre Herndon. B
K’Lavon Chaisson: Alright, I’ll address the elephant on the team now. Yannick Ngakoue is not playing another down for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was a believer that they could strike a long-term deal and keep the talented pass rusher but NOOOOO, he just had to beef with the owner’s son and ruin any chance, but I digress. The first of the Rams 1st round picks from the Jalen Ramsey trade yields the replacement for the other man who really wants out. The LSU product brings an incredible motor and raw talent. He has all the physical tools you could need in a DE/LB at 6’3” and 254lbs but has a high ceiling if he works on his technique. A line edged by Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson sounds relentless to me. A-
Laviska Shenault Jr.: There was plenty of WR talent deep in this draft class and I feel like the Jags found a secret weapon in the Colorado prospect. Despite dealing with numerous injuries and not the best quarterback play, he was still able to produce over 2000 scrimmage yards through his SO and JR seasons. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be able to line up all over the field. Gruden will be able to set him up at WR, RB and even Wildcat QB if he’s feeling frisky. At 6-2 220LB, Minshew has versatile target that has the chance to produce really well if he can stay healthy. B+
DaVon Hamilton: The 6-4, 320lb DT was a wall in the center of the Buckeye line. He amassed 6 sacks, 28 tackles (9.5 for a loss) with 1 forced fumble in his redshirt senior season. Hamilton was drafted to help shore up the middle once held up by Dareus, but also now partially manned by Al Woods. His specialty is in the run game, which is something the Jags desperately need. B
Ben Bartch: The Smoothie King comes to Duval. Everyone knows the story of Bartch’s insane smoothie recipe that helped him gain 86lbs. Coming out of DIII St. John’s in Minnesota, he dominated competition enough to earn him a spot at the Senior Bowl. Even though he doesn’t have much experience against NFL caliber competition, Bartch has the tools necessary to grow in the league and become a serviceable backup or eventually challenge current starting RG, AJ Cann. B-
Josiah Scott: On the smaller end of the spectrum (5’9”, 185lbs), Scott has had to overcome his size with speed and knowledge. He’s too small to be anything more than a slot corner; but he can be great depth behind DJ Hayden and helpful in the run game. The Jags lost a lot in the CB department, so I understand the depth pick. C+
Shaquille Quarterman: Quarterman was a 4-year starter and a captain while at Miami. Caldwell really wanted to shore up the run defense this offense and this pick doesn’t stray away from that narrative. He may not be the best in the pass game since he has limited speed, but on running downs he could be very helpful and a leader in the locker room. B
Daniel Thomas: I’m actually a fan of this pick solely for depth purposes. The best backup safety on the team is Andrew Wingard, so any help at the position is good. In his time at Auburn, he notched 5 interceptions, 199 total tackles and forced 3 fumbles. B
Collin Johnson: I feel like Johnson will be an asset in the red zone. His large stature at 6’6”, 220lbs+ will be great for jump-balls. The Jags receiving corp. has almost every kind of receiver you would need except for a big bodied guy to get up after 50/50 balls. While I’m not happy it took Dave this long to get more help for Minshew besides Shenault, this isn’t the worst consolation prize. C+
Jake Luton: Caldwell has had a history of selecting a QB in the 6th round. So, I’m not surprised by this pick. But the question is: will he be another Minshew, or a Tanner Lee? The Oregon State Beaver threw for 42 touchdowns to 11 interception in 3 years there. My money is on him being a camp body or not making the roster at all. D
Tyler Davis: Davis started his career at UConn as a Quarterback but switched to WR as a sophomore and ended up a TE before transferring to Georgia Tech as a TE. His receiving stats leave a lot to be desired but has some strength in run-blocking. In an already crowded position group, he’ll have to really show off to make the final roster. D+
Chris Claybrooks: Caldwell and Marrone both agreed that Claybrooks was drafted for returning purposes. Supposedly running a 4.25s 40 in a video sent to every NFL team, he has the speed to make a difference on special teams. In his time returning kicks at Memphis, he returned 11 for 338 yards for an average of 30.7 – a much higher average than the 24.2 yds/rt the Jaguars did in 2019. B+
 

UDFA

Luq Barcoo, CB, San Diego State; Doug Costin, DT, Miami (OH); Nathan Cottrell, RB, Georgia Tech; Ben Ellefson, TE, North Dakota State; Nate Evans, LB, Central Florida; Tavien Feaster, RB, South Carolina; Josh Hammond, WR, Florida; Amari Henderson, CB, Wake Forest; Ross Matiscik, LS, Baylor; Steven Nielson, OL, Ohio; J.R. Reed, S, Georgia; James Robinson, RB, Illinois State; Marvelle Ross, WR, Notre Dame College; Connor Slomka, FB, Army; Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms, OL, Missouri; Kobe Williams, CB, Arizona State; Brandon Wright, K, Georgia State.

Other Offseason News that Affected the Team

 
Oh my word…..there was so much that happened. I wish I had enough time to go into full detail on everything, but new job has my time extremely limited. I’ll unfortunately have to stick with short synopses on these.
 
Tom Coughlin Fired
The Tom Coughlin era 2.0 is finally over. The Jaguars have had enough of his dictatorship and days after the NFLPA sent a warning letter to players to stay away, they relieved him of his duties. A few of the grievances included:
  • Fining Dante Fowler Jr. $700k for not rehabbing in Jacksonville
  • Nearly forcing Jalen Ramsey and Telvin Smith to participate in voluntary workouts
  • Fining Fournette for sitting while inactive during the 2018 finale
But wait! There’s more! Not only did he have a number of grievances filed against him, he:
  • Gave Blake Bortles a deal averaging $18m a year, only to be released
  • Signed Nick Foles to a deal worth $88m, and wouldn’t let it go when it was proven he wasn’t the guy
  • Other general day-to-day nuances that make him an overall unlikable person
 
Now that he’s gone, the clocks have gone back to normal time and hopefully the morale of the team improves greatly. This is also a final chance for Doug Marrone and Dave Caldwell to show that a major factor in the teams lack of recent success can be directly attributed to the Tom Coughlin culture.
 
Telvin Smith arrested
Oooooh boy……what to say about this one. Former 5th round pick out of Florida State turned top MLB in the NFL arrested and charged with unlawful sexual activity with a minor. He retired in 2019 stating that he needed to focus on his family and health. Smith first met the girl in the summer of 2019, recently after she turned 17; and in their 2-month time together, they had sex multiple times in Smith’s car and home. Adding onto that, Smith offered the underage girl $200 to keep quiet, $100 of which she ultimately took. He was released on $50,003 bond. DON’T.FUCK.KIDS.OR.TEENS.PEOPLE.
 
Yannick Ngakoue
I don’t really know where to start this since so much has happened. Yannick Ngakoue is trying to pull a Jalen Ramsey and tweet himself out of Duval County. Ngakoue has been (and still is) very open about his displeasure towards the organization. Since late 2019, he has tweeted numerous times about wanting to be traded, even calling out Tony Khan (son of owner Shahid Khan) on the site. The team franchise tagged him and tried shopping around. Their asking price was a MINIMUM of a first round pick, but the Twitter tirade ruined basically any chance of that return. There was an offer that included a Pro Bowl player recently, which was declined since the player “didn’t fit their system”. People are split between whether he plays if he doesn’t get traded or sitting out the season, which I guess we’ll see once (if) the season commences.
 
No 5th year option for Fournette
Just like Ngakoue, the former 4th overall picks’ relationship with the front office has not been the most ideal. He was one of the many players that filed a grievance against the team for the fine for sitting on the bench in 2018 while inactive, which he got back. The Jaguars decided not to pick up his 5th year option, which would’ve netted Fournette $8.43 million. This means that, unless an extension is made, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021. The team will most likely not extend him beyond this season since they were even trying to get rid of him this offseason. They had discussions with teams about moving him, but no deal was done. Caldwell ultimately decided that Fournette will stick around and be the RB1 for the 2020 season but has not made any mention of beyond that. This is a contract year for him, and he wants to prove that he was worth the 4th overall selection.
 
COVID-19
As most of you may know, the Jacksonville Jaguars have another name: The London Jaguars
But in all seriousness, it’s been seeming to the general public that the team will move to London; especially after this year when Khan moved a second home game to Wembley Stadium. The reasoning behind the move is to increase local revenue. The front office believed that the reasoning behind the low revenue was the local market, not the product on the field. No one, not a single fan took this piece of news positively. It seemed like it was doomed from the start, something that could only be slowed down by say a…..pandemic? (un)Luckily so, one such pandemic happened. Creating an international travel restriction and preventing any NFL teams from playing in London. When the season does start, the home games, which would’ve been vs. the Lions and Browns in non-consecutive weeks, will actually be played at home. In other COVID news, former Jaguar great Tony Boselli contracted the Coronavirus and was admitted to the ICU for five days. Things got so bad that he was hooked up to two IVs and needed oxygen to help his breathing. Luckily, he was able to recover mostly and was released on March 30.

Projected Starting Lineup with Camp Battles

Positions won in a camp battle italicized
QB- Gardner Minshew: This is Gardner Minshew’s team in 2020. After a promising rookie season, added weapons and a more workable scheme, Minshew should solidify himself as the quarterback of the future - given he slows down on the turnovers.
RB- Leonard Fournette: In a contract year after his 5th year option was declined, he will be running with a chip on his shoulder. The team looks to run him as much as possible before he leaves.
TE- Tyler Eifert, James O’Shaughnessy: Free agent signing Eifert will fill the starting role as long as he is healthy. I think O’Shaughnessy beats out Josh Oliver for the TE2 spot due to last years chemistry with Minshew.
WR- D.J. Chark Jr., Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, Laviska Shenault Jr.: This group is easily the strength of this offense. Chark looks to build on a really nice 2019 season, Westbrook and Conley weren’t bad as WR2 and 3, but they weren’t spectacular either. I added Shenault as well because he will be put in at a bunch of different positions.
LT- Cam Robinson: Robinson battled through an ACL injury in 2018 which basically sent his development back over a year. He’s been inconsistent in his time playing, playing well during some games but slacking big time in others.
LG- Andrew Norwell: The coaching staff is still sticking by the second highest paid guard in the NFL, even though he hasn’t been playing like it at all. He missed time in 2018 with a foot injury and has been battling through that since. But ultimately needs to play even remotely like the former 1st team all-pro in order to provide some return on his contract. He has been arguably the worst lineman on an already weak line.
C- Brandon Linder: One of the more underrated lineman in the league. Linder has been a consistent leader on the offense since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2014.
RG- A.J. Cann: Cann is just one of those guys where you kinda forget about him until he has a terrible game and then you remember that he’s actually not good. I’m considering this one a battle because I feel like rookie Bartch can snag a start or two during the season.
RT- Jawaan Taylor: After dropping to the Jags in the second round of last years’ draft, Taylor has lived up to expectations. While having the typical rookie growing pains, he was extremely solid playing against pro-level talent.
DL- Josh Allen, Abry Jones, Taven Bryan/Rodney Gunter, K’Lavon Chaisson: A group that is primed to surprise people. The Good Josh Allen is already a forced to be reckoned with, Abry Jones is a solid piece with some rotational help, Taven Bryan is only getting better at the run while Gunter will help with the pass rush. Finally, 1st round pick K’Lavon Chaisson comes in with an incredible motor to help with the loss of Ngakoue.
LB- Myles Jack, Joe Schobert, Quincy Williams: Myles Jack is on his 3rd position, so hopefully this will unlock his full athletic potential. Schobert will command the defense up the middle and drop into coverage. Quincy did not play well last year as a rookie. I hope he is able to progress this season or we might be in trouble there.
CB- C.J. Henderson, Rashaan Melvin, D.J. Hayden: 9th overall pick Henderson gets the start at the CB1 position. Melvin and Tre Herndon are going to be battling for the CB2 spot, but I give the nod to Melvin solely because he has more experience. D.J. Hayden is another underrated player in the NFL and is quietly one of the top Nickel corners.
S- Ronnie Harrison, Jarrod Wilson: Ronnie Harrison has been really coming into his own over the past season and will only get better. Jarrod Wilson played fairly well in 2019 and was exercised his option during the offseason.
K- Josh Lambo: Lambo is one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL today. Hitting over 94% of his kicks since coming to Jacksonville (while also leading the NFL in 2019 with 97.1% FG made).
P- Logan Cooke: Cooke is top 10 in yards/punt and has no need to worry about losing his job.
KR- Chris Claybrooks: The 7th rounder from Memphis was drafted specifically to return kicks, hopefully he brings the spark that the team desperately needs on ST.
PR- Dede Westbrook: Westbrook was 14th in the NFL in punt returns, he hasn’t been great in the field, but he also hasn’t been terrible.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1: IND (L) – Philip Rivers has had our number over the years (7-2, 24 touchdowns to 5 interceptions); and a team that’s a QB shy from competing now has the Jaguars literal kryptonite. I have my faith in the young defense, but Rivers will probably have a field day. 0-1
Week 2: @TEN (W) – Huh, no annual TNF Titans-Jaguars trash bowl? 2020 is really a weird year and I don’t like it. Here’s hoping that at least one trend sort of-continues: a split in games. The Jags revamped run defense slows down Derrick Henry for a game and CJ Henderson gets his first career pick off of Tannehill. Minshew is going to be the deciding factor in this game. 1-1
Week 3: MIA (W) – If it’s Fitzpatrick, it’s a loss. But I believe Tua takes the job early in the season(maybe?) and has his typical rookie growing pains. One of which is losing to a bad team that you shouldn’t lose to. 2-1
Week 4: @CIN (W) – Just like Tua, Burrow is set to have his growing pains. But this isn’t one of those games. The first overall pick goes into a shootout with The Man, The Myth, The Legend but comes up short due to a questionable play call in the final seconds. 3-1
Week 5: @HOU (L) – Even though Houston no longer has DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson is still able to work through the Jags D to come up with the win. 3-2
Week 6: DET (L) – Matthew Stafford has a really good week and Jeff Okudah outmatches his top 10 counterpart in another close game that comes down to game management experience. 3-3
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: @LAC (W) – Even though Jacksonville isn’t typically good on the west coast, they’re facing a team manned either by Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. If they’re facing the latter (I’m sticking with a first round rookie start), then they’ll pull off a win they shouldn’t have. 4-3
Week 9: HOU (L) - Just like week 5, Watson goes off again while Brandon Cooks has 150+ yards receiving. Minshew attempts a 4th quarter comeback and brings it close, but ultimately falls short. 4-4
Week 10: @GB (L) - Aaron Rodgers is obviously unhappy with the drafting of Jordan Love and is on a mission to prove that he’s still got it in the league. Even though the rest of the roster is lacking pieces, you can never count out Rodgers. Especially when it’s against lower competition. 4-5
Week 11: PIT (L) – I feel like this could be the start (or continuation) of a decent non-divisional/former divisional rivalry. Big Ben is back and has a good back in James Conner. Besides JuJu Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron, there isn’t anyone that inflicts fear in secondaries. This game could go either way, but I’m giving the nod to Pittsburgh in a close match. Their defense has enough to slow down our offense, but our defense lacks the “star-power” against their offense to really make up for it. 4-6
Week 12: @CLE (L) – Chubb is good, Beckham is good, Landry is good, Hooper is good. Unfortunately I don’t see us being close in this one. 4-7
Week 13: @MIN (L) – Minnesota, at this point, is looking towards the postseason and will not hold back. Thielen and Cook will carry their offense to 3 touchdowns while the Jags offense falls flat this week. 4-8
Week 14: TEN (L) – The split game. Again….WHY NO TNF?! The Jaguars come into the game tired and eliminated, while the Tacks come into the contest nearing a berth and are hungry for a win. Derrick Henry is Derrick Henry and just runs train. 4-9
Week 15: @BAL (L) - I may be biased but I’m not delusional. 4-10
Week 16: CHI (W) – I’m basing this off my prediction that Foles will outplay Trubisky and stays healthy. Foles plays better than Trubisky, but that’s not saying much. Henderson is able to keep Allen Robinson at bay; and while Khalil Mack will be effective, his impact will be kept to a best-case scenario. 5-10
Week 17: IND (W) – Indianapolis already clinched a playoff spot and is resting their starters for their inevitable 1st round elimination. So, the Jags will win in semi-convincing fashion against a team starting backups. 6-10
Final Record: 6-10. I genuinely believe this team has improved overall despite the major losses throughout the defense. There are going to be a lot of close games, especially if more players opt-out of the season. I feel like many of these games could steer in either direction. Besides Baltimore, Minnesota, Houston and Green Bay, of course. The ceiling of this team could push .500, but the floor could really bottom out at 1 or 2 wins. This team is extremely young and still needs to mesh. Depending on next years draft picks (looking at you, Rams. Please suck, thanks), this team is poised for a huge jump in the near future. This isn’t a full rebuild, it’s a partial one. I do not see this team making the postseason this year, but they could definitely play party-pooper to a couple of teams.

Schemes

Jay Gruden – Gruden utilizes a West Coast Offensive scheme. This scheme was created by Bill Walsh in the 60’s when he worked for the Cincinnati Bengals as the QB coach. This offense relies heavily on shorter throws spread out throughout the field, eventually opening the top up for the occasional long ball. The use of a mobile QB and a variety of receivers can really help spread out the defense as well and easier for him to make throws.
Todd Wash – Although there have been rumors of a scheme change, and the signing of certain players seem to suggest the same, Todd Wash is still sticking a base 4-3 defense. One of the more common schemes, it involves four down linemen consisting of a nose tackle, a defensive tackle and two ends. Behind the linemen are 3 linebackers: The Mike, Will and Sam linebackers. The Mike, or middle, will line up behind the nose tackle and covers the A gap. The Will, or weak, lines up on the side not containing the TE and covers the B gap on that side. The Sam, or strong, lines up on the side of the Tight End and will contain the C gap on that side. The secondary will always have two CB’s, a SS and FS; the CB’s will cover the receivers, the FS will line up deep on the side of the weakside linebacker and the SS will do the same on the opposite side.
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2020.07.06 17:54 sonofabutch The All-I Team!

Recently I put together an All-Q Team -- the 25 best of the 51 players in MLB history who have last names starting with Q. (And that followed my post as to which last name has the most players (M, 2,040) and which has the least (X, 0). Q has the second-fewest, with 51.)
The Q team's performance would be... shall we say... Questionable. Basically it's starting pitchers Jack Quinn and Jose Quintana, relievers Dan Quisenberry and Paul Quantrill, and one hitter -- slugger Carlos Quentin. Everyone else had career bWAR in the single digits, or negative.
The letter with the next fewest players is I, with 59. I thought it would be Interesting to look at the All-I Team. Would it be as Inadequate as the All-Q team, or would a pool of just eight more names be a big Improvement?
Of the 59 players, six are still active, according to baseball-reference.com; five played in MLB in 2019. (The active player who didn't appear in MLB last year was pitcher Gregory Infante, who had been signed by the Orioles but released before the season started; earlier this year they again invited him to spring training, but he's not on the 60-man roster.)
One odd thing I noticed is a fair number of these I-guys would become minor league managers, just as it seemed a disproportionate number of Q'ers died relatively young. I guess baseball teams think if your last name starts with I, you must be Intelligent enough to be a manager!
Batters: The I's have much more Impressive hitters than the Q's. The leading hitter on the Q-team is OF Carlos Quentin, with 10.5 bWAR; he'd rank 11th on the I-team! The Q-team's starting nine had just 27.1 career bWAR; the I-team's lineup has 152.3!
C Chris Iannetta - 15.0 bWAR, .230/.345/.406 (98 OPS+), 3,563 AB (2006-2019). "Sponge" consistently posts an OBP a hundred points higher than his batting average -- even in 2010, when he hit .197 but still got on base nearly 32% of the time. Casual fans look at a walk as something negative the pitcher did, not something positive the batter did -- a mistake by the pitcher rather than an accomplishment by the batter. But it's absolutely a skill and Iannetta proves it every year. Pitchers don't want to walk a guy with a career .230 BA, yet he gets walks.
1B Frank Isbell - 14.6 bWAR, .250/.289/.326 (89 OPS+), 4,219 AB (1898-1909). Nicknames in the Deadball Era were notoriously cruel. Hazen Cuyler was a stutterer who had trouble with his own last name; he's immortalized as Kiki Cuyler, mocking the way he pronounced it. William Hoy, who was deaf, was known as "Dummy." Charles Briody's round face and growing waistline earned him the nickname "Fatty." As for Frank, who was sensitive about losing his hair early in his 20s, his teammates dubbed him "The Bald Eagle." Frank's career slash-line of .250/.289/.326 isn't impressive, but he did have a tremendous year for the 1905 Chicago White Sox (.296/.335/.440, a 149 OPS+). Isbell played most of his games at first base, but he played all over the field -- literally, as he's one of the few men in MLB history to have multiple games at every position. He even pitched in 17 games, posting a 3.46 ERA in 88.1 innings!
2B Omar Infante - 16.9 bWAR, .271/.308/.387 (87 OPS+), 5,271 AB (2002-2016). Omar is the first of many players born in Venezuela; are last names starting with I more common there? Infante was primarily a utility man for the first half of his career, playing second, third, short, and all three outfield positions; it wasn't until 2010, at the age of 28, the Braves gave him 500+ plate appearances for just the second time in his career. He responded with his best season, hitting .321/.359/.416 and making his one and only All-Star appearance. He would spend the rest of his career as a starting second baseman. A tragic note: Omar's older brother, Asdrubal Infante, was a promising pitching prospect with the Tigers -- he posted a 1.09 ERA with 51 K in 33 IP in rookie ball in 1999 -- but was murdered that same year in a robbery in Venezuela. He was just 17 years old.
3B Brandon Inge - 19.2 bWAR, .233/.301/.384 (82 OPS+), 5,014 AB (2001-2013). Inge was a shortstop and pitcher at Virginia Commonwealth University, but the Tigers drafted him in the 2nd round in 1998 with the intention of converting him to a catcher. After three seasons in the bigs, he was moved to third base, where both his offense and his defense greatly improved. (Inge would hit .199/.260/.330 in 1,271 PA as a catcher, and .243/.315/.402 in 4,102 PA as a third baseman!) In 2008, Inge went on the disabled list when he strained a muscle trying to position a pillow under the head of his sleeping son.
SS Arthur Irwin - 15.2 bWAR, .241/.299/.305 (81 OPS+), 3,871 AB (1880-1894). The Q-Team had a lot of Quinns -- 13 of the 51 Q's in MLB history, or 25%, have the last name Quinn. For the I's, it's Irwin. Eight of the 59 I's are Irwins, or 13.5%. The first in both alphabetical order and by most bWAR is Arthur Irwin, a 19th century infielder who was later a manager, umpire, scout, and part-owner of a minor league team. At the age of 63, Irwin -- who during his playing days was known by the nicknames Doc, Foxy, and Sandy -- took ill and was hospitalized. His son came to visit him... and was surprised to discover another son visiting him as well. It turned out Irwin had married two women and had two families, one in New York and another in Boston. Soon after, Irwin boarded a ship and was never seen again. It was ruled a suicide, but who knows... maybe he settled down with a third family!
LF Raúl Ibañez - 20.9 bWAR, .272/.335/.465 (111 OPS+), 7,471 AB (1996-2014). Ibañez, the son of Cuban refugees, hit .272/.347/.572 and set career highs in OPS and HR (34) in his lone All-Star season... at the age of 37! Over his 19-year career, Ibañez had an OPS+ over 100 twelve times. His career bWAR was dinged by his defense -- 28.7 oWAR, but -17.3 dWAR. CF Ender Inciarte - 18.9 bWAR, .286/.338/.398 (95 OPS+), 2,922 AB (2014-2019). A 2017 All-Star and three-time Gold Glove award winner, Inciarte was signed out of Venezuela as a 18-year-old amateur by the Diamondbacks in 2008, but he would spend the next six years in the minors; the Phillies claimed him via the Rule V draft prior to the 2013 season, but had to return him after just one game (in which he didn't play) when they claimed Ezequiel Carrera off waivers. The D'Backs finally gave Inciarte a chance in 2014, and he would hit .292 for them over the next two seasons. Arizona then traded him to the Braves (with former #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair) for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier, one of the moves that doomed Arizona GM Dave Stewart.
RF Monte Irvin - 21.3 bWAR, .293/.383/.475 (125 OPS+), 2,499 AB (1949-1956). "Mr. Murder" was a Negro Leagues star whose career was cut short by segregation and military service. Most believed he was the best player in the Negro Leagues, but it was Jackie Robinson, not Irvin, who first crossed the color line. Irvin was 30 years old when he finally got the chance, two years after Jackie, to play in the bigs. His best year was 1951, when he hit .312/.415/.514 with 24 HR and 121 RBI, finishing third in the MVP race. "As great as he was in 1951," said Roy Campanella, who won the MVP that year, "he was twice that good 10 years earlier." Irvin was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1973.
DH Pete Incaviglia - 10.3 bWAR, .246/.310/.448 (104 OPS+), 4,233 AB (1986-1998). "Inky" was one of the best college players of his generation, setting an NCAA record with 100 home runs in 213 games at Oklahoma State. He told teams interested in drafting him that he wouldn't sign unless they allowed him to skip the minors; the Expos took him 8th overall but immediately traded him to the Rangers. (MLB later adopted a rule prohibiting trades of newly drafted players, informally dubbed "The Pete Incaviglia Rule.") Incaviglia would then hit 30 home runs as a 22-year-old rookie... which would turn out to be his single-season career high. A low-average, high-strikeout player, Incaviglia played for six teams in 12 seasons -- not counting the Expos or the Diamondbacks, who signed him to a minor league deal in his final season -- plus one season in Japan. He would later be a hitting coach and manager in the minors.
Bench: There were an extraordinary amount of Infielders whose last names start with I; some good ones couldn't make the cut. The five guys on the bench total 45.3 bWAR... Q's bench was -1.5.
UT Maicer Izturis - 11.3 bWAR, .269/.331/.372 (90 OPS+), 3,013 AB (2004-2014). "Mighty Mouse" nearly evenly split his career between third base (2,552 innings) and second base (2,456 innings), but he also played nearly 1,700 innings at shorstop. Though his career OPS+ was below average, he did have some good offensive years -- .293/.365/.412 in 2006 and .300/.359/.434 in 2009. A series of injuries ended the Venezuelan's career after the 2014 season.
SS José Iglesias - 11.1 bWAR, .273/.315/.371 (84 OPS+), 2,706 AB (2011-2019). The 18-year-old Iglesias defected from Cuba during the 2008 World Junior Championship and signed with the Red Sox, immediately becoming one of the team's top prospects. He bounced up and down between Boston and the minors in 2011 and 2012, but in 2013 he won the starting job and after a tremendous start (.330/.376/.409 in 63 games) was included in a three-team deal for Jake Peavy. He would spend five seasons with the Tigers, hitting .268/.312/.364; last year he signed with the Reds and hit .288/.318/.407. Now 30, this off-season he signed a one-year deal with the Orioles.
3B Charlie Irwin - 9.2 bWAR, .268/.331/.345 (82 OPS+), 3,685 AB (1893-1902). Primarily known for his glove -- he ranked 1st or 2nd in 3B fielding percentage in five of his 10 seasons -- Irwin hit a respectable .273/.346/.317 (105 OPS+) with the Brooklyn Superbas in 1902, his final season in the bigs, then would go on to play several more seasons in the Pacific Coast League, and like so many others on this team would later be a manager.
1B/3B/OF Mike Ivie - 7.3 bWAR, .269/.324/.421 (110 OPS+), 2,694 AB (1971-1983). The first overall pick of the 1970 draft by the San Diego Padres, Ivie made his debut as a September call-up at the tender age of 18, going 8-for-17 with 3 RBIs in six games as a catcher. He'd return to the bigs in 1974, now a first baseman; they'd later try him at third and in the outfield, too. (His best position was probably DH.) A right-handed hitter good at mashing lefties (.693 OPS vsR, .846 OPS vsL), Ivie would top 400 ABs just three times in 11 seasons. He retired at the age of 30.
2B Tadahito Iguchi - 6.4 bWAR, .268/.338/.401 (93 OPS+), 1,841 AB (2005-2008). A star player in Japan, Iguchi came to MLB as a 30-year-old in 2005, signing with the White Sox. He would hit .278/.342/.438 and finish fourth in the ROY voting, and became the first Japanese-born position player to win a World Series. He returned to Japan in 2009 and would finally retire in 2017 at the age of 42. Iguchi has four rings -- one with the White Sox and three from Japan -- and since 2018 has been manager of the Chiba Lotte Marines.
Starting Pitchers: So it's going to be great hitting vs great pitching. The I-team has the bats, but the Q-team has the arms: The I's best pitcher would be #3 on the Q's, and after that... it's not pretty. The I-team has just 21.4 bWAR from its rotation, compared to 77.9 for the Q-team.
SP Hisashi Iwakuma - 16.9 bWAR, 63-39, 3.42 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 883.2 IP (2012-2017). One advantage the I-team has over the Q-team is Japanese players, who represent three-fifths of the starting rotation. The ace is Kuma, who went 107-69 with a 3.25 ERA in Japan and then came to the United States where he had six pretty good seasons, all with the Mariners and all after his 30th birthday. His best year was 2013, when he was an All-Star and finished third in the Cy Young Award voting, going 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.006 WHIP.
SP Hideki Irabu - 3.4 bWAR, 34-35, 5.15 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 514.0 IP (1997-2002). Irabu was a star in Japan with the Chiba Lotte Marines who wanted to pitch in MLB... specifically with the Yankees. Under an existing arrangement with the Padres, Chiba sold Irabu's rights to San Diego in 1997 and then traded him to New York for Ruben Rivera, Rafael Medina, and $3 million in cash. The first season of Irabu's four-year, $12.8 million deal was a disaster (5-4, 7.09 ERA, 1.669 WHIP), but he wasn't bad in 1998-1999 (24-16, 4.44 ERA, 1.315 WHIP). But Boss Steinbrenner didn't like him and he was traded to the Expos, where he went a disappointing 2-7 with a 6.69 ERA in two seasons. In 2002 he was used as a reliever with the Rangers, going 3-8 with 16 saves. He would then return to Japan, pitching two seasons before retiring in 2005. He briefly came out of retirement in 2009 to pitch in independent leagues in both the United States and Japan. In 2011, Irabu apparently hanged himself in his California home. He was just 42.
SP Mike Ignasiak - 0.9 BWAR, 10-4, 4.80 EARA, 1.504 WHIP, 137.0 IP (1991-1995). A teammate of Barry Larkin, Jim Abbott, and Scott Kamieniecki at the University of Michigan, Ignasiak went 47-25 with a 3.23 ERA in eight minor league seasons -- including a 55.2 scoreless inning streak between 1993 and 1994 -- then went 10-4 with a 4.80 ERA over four seasons with the Brewers. In 1996, he signed with the Red Sox but suffered a back injury that ended his career. He took up golf in his mid-30s and became one of the top amateur players in the country.
SP Bert Inks - 0.5 bWAR, 27-46, 5.52 ERA, 1.733 WHIP in 603.2 IP (1891-1896). A 6'3" lefty, Inks and his brother Will both played for Notre Dame. Will and a third brother, Fred, also played a little pro ball but only Bert made it to the bigs. He pitched for six teams in just five seasons, most of them bad.
SP Kazuhisa Ishii - -0.3 bWAR, 39-34, 4.44 ERA, 1.528 WHIP, 564.0 IP (2002-2005). Walks were Kaz's downfall, with 5.6 BB/9 over his four-year MLB career. After leaving the bigs, the lefty returned to Japan where he'd pitch until the age of 40 for a total of 18 seasons. In Japan, Ishii went 143-103 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.307 WHIP (and 3.9 BB/9, 8.8 K/9).
Relief Pitchers: Once again, the Q-team comes out on top. Team Q had 54.4 bWAR from its relievers; the I-team, less than half that at 25.3 (and most of that coming from their closer).
RP Jason Isringhausen - 13.0 bWAR, 51-55, 300 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 1007.2 IP (1995-2012). One of the first players I think of when it comes to I-names, Izzy finished fourth in the NL ROY voting after an impressive debut season (9-2, 2.81 ERA, 1.280 WHIP) with the New York Mets at the age of 22. But injuries, ineffectiveness, and a bout with tuberculosis caused his Mets career to fizzle, and in 1999 he was traded to the Oakland A's where he would become a top closer. He was named to two All-Star teams and recorded 11 post-season saves.
RP Raisel Iglesias - 8.3 bWAR, 14-29, 98 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 388.2 IP (2015-2019). Raisel Iglesias apparently isn't related to Jose Iglesias, but were born in, and fled from, Cuba. Raisel signed with the Reds, who converted him to a starter (he had been a reliever with the Cuban national team), but after going 4-8 with a 3.88 ERA in 21 starts, they switched him back to a reliever. In 231 relief appearances, he's posted a 2.85 ERA with 98 saves; overall, he's struck out 448 batters in 388.2 IP.
RP Jeff Innis - 4.6 bWAR, 10-20, 5 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.272 WHIP, 360.0 IP (1987-1993). Jeff pitched all seven seasons of his MLB career with the New York Mets. A side-arming sinkerballer, "the I-Man" was known for his impressions of players and staff, including GM Frank Cashen. Maybe that's why the Mets declined to offer Innis a contract after the 1993 season. He signed with the Twins, and that spring training had the distinction of giving up the first professional base hit to a 31-year-old rookie named Michael Jordan. Jeff would stick around in the minors for a few more seasons, even working on a knuckleball, but never made it back to the bigs.
RP Gregory Infante - 1.0 bWAR, 3-2, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 68.1 IP (2010-2018). Infante was a baby -- ha, ha -- when he came up the first time in 2010, as a 22-year-old reliever with the White Sox. He pitched in five games without allowing a run and struck out five batters, though he did give up two hits and four walks in 4.2 innings. He would then spend the next eight seasons bouncing between organizations in the minors before finally returning to the bigs in 2017 with... the White Sox. So in nine years, he's pitched in 67 games, all with Chicago. Infante, now 30, signed with the Orioles last year but was released before the season started; the Venezuelan spent this off-season pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League.
RP Cole Irvin - -0.2 bWAR, 2-1, 1 SV, 5.83 ERA, 1.392 WHIP, 41.2 IP (2019). A 5th round pick by the Phillies in the 2016 draft, Swirvin Irvin went 6-1 with a 3.94 ERA in 16 starts and one relief appearance in Triple-A, then was promoted to the bigs where he had three starts and 13 relief appearances. The lefty was named the 2018 International League Pitcher of the Year after going 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
RP Ryota Igarashi - -1.4 bWAR, 5-2, 0 SV, 6.41 ERA, 1.808 WHIP, 73.0 IP (2010-2012). Once renowned as one of the hardest throwers in Japan -- he struck out 97 batters in 78 innings in 2002 -- the New York Mets signed the 31-year-old reliever in 2010 but he struggled, giving up 24 runs, 29 hits, and 18 walks in 30.1 IP (but he did strike out 25 batters). The following year he gave up 20 runs on 43 hits and 28 walks in 38.2 IP (with 42 Ks), and the Mets released him. He signed with the Pirates, but was traded to the Blue Jays; they released him after two disastrous outings and the Yankees signed him, and they gave up on him after two more ugly appearances. Igarashi returned to Japan, where he's still pitching at age 41!
The I's who were... Ignored:
Here are the remaining 34 players whose last name starts with I. Some were fairly Impressive, others were Inferior.
Reliever Edgar Ibarra pitched in two games with the Angels in 2015, giving up one run on four hits and three walks while striking out three in four innings. The lefty has spent the last few seasons pitching winter ball in his native Venezuela.
Ham Iburg's real name was Herman; I don't know why they called him Ham. A San Francisco native who started and ended his career in the Pacific Coast League, Iburg had just one season in the bigs, going 11-18 with the 1902 Philadelphia Phillies; he was under contract to return in 1903, but he went back to California instead. The Pacific Coast League of that era offered better weather, easier travel, and sometimes better salaries than MLB, and many players like Iburg simply preferred playing on the west coast than in the Show.
Kei Igawa was a fading Japanese ace -- he even was briefly sent to the minors in 2005, and had become unpopular with fans -- but the Yankees needed an answer to the Red Sox signing Daisuke Matsuzaka two weeks earlier. After going 2-1 (with a 7.63 ERA) in his first six games, Igawa was sent to the minors; he'd return in June, get sent down again, and then be back in September. He'd end the year 2-3 with a 6.25 ERA. He would get bombed in two more appearances the following year, giving up six runs on 13 hits in just 4 innings, and would never resurface in MLB, despite posting adequate numbers in Triple-A (33-22, 3.81 ERA, 1.297 WHIP). After his release in 2011, Igawa returned to Japan, where he would pitch several more seasons with the Orix Buffaloes.
Gary Ignasiak is the big brother -- by 18 years! -- of pitcher Mike Ignasiak. Gary got into three games with the Tigers in 1973, striking out 4 batters in 4.2 innings but also giving up five hits and three walks. They sent him back to the minors but he never mastered his control, walking 647 batters in 825.0 minor league innings, and was out of pro baseball by the age of 25.
Reliever Blaise Ilsley made 10 appearances with the Cubs in 1994, giving up 13 runs on 25 hits and nine walks in 15.0 innings. Not surprisingly, the Cubs didn't bring him back. But he did have a long minor league career, and was later a pitching coach in the minors and a bullpen coach with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Doc Imlay had nine appearances for the Philadelphia Phillies in 1913, giving up 13 runs on 19 hits and seven walks in 13.2 innings. Imlay would then have a more successful career as a dentist in New Jersey.
Infielder Alexis Infante went 5-for-27 with the Blue Jays between 1987 and 1989, and 1-for-28 with the Braves in 1990. He would later be a manager in the Dominican Republic. The three Infantes in MLB history -- Alexis, Gregory, and Omar -- do not appear to be closely related, though all are from Venezuela.
Bob Ingersoll was a 31-year-old reliever who made four appearances with the Reds in 1914, giving up two runs on five hits and five walks in six innings.
A utilityman with the 1911 Boston Rustlers -- they wouldn't become the Braves until the following year -- Scotty Ingerton would get 521 AB while playing six different positions, hitting .250/.304/.340. After baseball, the former Rustler would become a deputy in Ohio.
A century later, another utilityman named Joe Inglett would play six positions (and pitch an inning!) across six seasons with the Indians, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Astros. Inglett would hit a respectable .283/.342/.392 in 808 career AB, but didn't get to the majors until he was 28 years old and never really got a chance; his best season was 2008, when he would hit .297/.355/.407 in 344 AB.
Charlie Ingraham caught one game for the Baltimore Orioles in 1883, going 1-for-4.
Utilityman Garey Ingram got into 82 games for the Dodgers between 1994 and 1997, going 37-for-142 (.261 BA). He played second, third, and outfield. He'd later be a coach in the minor leagues.
Mel Ingram -- apparently no relation to Garey -- had a "Moonlight Graham" MLB career, playing in MLB but never getting a plate appearance. He appeared in three games, all as a pinch runner, and scored a run for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1929.
The third man with this last name, Ricardo Ingram, played in 12 games with the Tigers in 1994 and four with the Twins in 1995, going a combined total of 6-for-31 (.194). He would later be a minor league coach and manager, but tragically developed brain cancer and died in 2015 at the age of 48.
Brothers Dane Iorg and Garth Iorg played in the 1970s and 80s. Dane was a 1st round pick by the Philadelphia Phillies in 1971, but he didn't make it to the Show until 1977; then, after just 12 games, was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Bake McBride. A left-handed hitter, Dane was platooned throughout his career, hitting .284/.326/.387 in 1,502 AB vsR but just .200/.220/.276 in 145 AB vsL. Given his lack of power (14 career HR), speed (5 career SB), and defense (-3.1 career dWAR), it's surprising he had a 10-year MLB career. But he did win World Series rings with the '82 Cardinals and '85 Royals, going 12-for-23 (.522) with five doubles and a triple when it mattered most! Big brother Garth was originally drafted by the Yankees, but the Blue Jays took him in the 1976 expansion draft and he'd play his entire career as a utilityman for Toronto. After his MLB career ended, he would play in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association, then would be a coach with the Brewers as well as a minor league manager. His sons Isaac, Eli, and Cale all played in the minors but never made the Show.
Happy Iott played in three games with the 1903 Cleveland Naps, going 2-for-10. A Maine native, the outfielder would later play in minor league and semipro teams in his home state.
Apparently no relation, Hooks Iott pitched in two games as a 21-year-old rookie with the St. Louis Browns in 1941, then in 24 games with the Browns and Giants in 1947... something must have happened in the middle... oh right, World War II. The lefty served in the U.S. Army Air Force during the war. He went 3-9 with a 7.05 ERA in 81.2 IP in his bifurcated MLB career, then would pitch into the late 1950s in the minors, including going 24-9 with a 1.83 ERA in 260.0 IP with the St. Petersburg Saints of the Florida International League in 1952.
Switch-hitting infielder Hal Irelan played just one season in the bigs, hitting .236 in 67 games with the Philadelphia Phillies in 1914. He would have a much longer career in the minors, still playing for Decatur in the, appropriately enough, Three-I League in 1926. He'd later be a minor league manager.
Another switch-hitting infielder came along in the early 1980s, Tim Ireland. He would go 1-for-7 in 11 games with the Royals scattered between 1981 and 1982. After a long career in the minors, Ireland would spend two seasons with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, hitting .275 with 18 HR in 585 AB. Like many others on this list, he would later be a manager in the minors.
Venezuelan Hernan Iribarren hit .185 in 27 AB for the Brewers between 2008 and 2009; he returned to the majors in 2016 at the age of 32 and hit .311 in 45 AB for the Reds. A utilityman, Iribarren saw time first, second, third, and all three outfield positions.
A highly prized prospect at Ferrum Junior College, Daryl Irvine was selected in three different drafts -- in the 3rd round, in the 2nd round, and finally in the 1st round -- before signing with the Red Sox in 1985. He posted a 3.34 ERA in nine minor league seasons, but never mastered his control, with 291 walks in 711.2 minor league innings. In the bigs, he posted a 5.68 ERA and an unsightly 4.7 BB/9 (with just 3.8 K/9).
Bill Irwin somehow acquired the nickname Phil. He pitched in two games for the Cincinnati Red Stockings late in the 1886 season, giving up 19 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits and eight walks. Each was a complete game loss!
Third baseman Ed Irwin played in one game with the Detroit Tigers in 1912, going 2-for-3 -- and both hits were triples! How he came to play in one and only game is a tale in and of itself. Ty Cobb had been suspended indefinitely for one of his more infamous incidents -- he'd jumped into the stands to beat up a man who had no hands -- and Tiger players refused to take the field until he was reinstated, or at least given a punishment with an end date. Rather than forfeit the game, the Tigers recruited some local college and semipro players, including Irwin. They were crushed 24-2 by the A's. League President Ban Johnson then told the Tigers that he'd kick all of them out of baseball if they refused to play again, and the strike ended. Cobb was reinstated on May 26. As for Irwin, he was killed in a bar brawl four years later. It's believed he still has the record for "most triples by a player without another base hit."
The brother of Arthur Irwin, infielder John Irwin hit .246 in 1,269 career at-bats. It's said he owed at least some of those at-bats to the fact that big brother Arthur was his manager with the 1889 Washington Nationals and 1891 Boston Reds.
Phil Irwin had two starts in the bigs, one with the Pirates in 2013 and another with the Rangers in 2014; he gave up eight runs (seven earned) on 12 hits and six walks in 8.2 innings. In 2015, he pitched in the Korean League, going 1-7 with a 8.68 ERA.
Shortstop Tommy Irwin got into three games with the Cleveland Indians late in the 1938 season; he went 1-for-9. Later in life he'd be a scout for Cleveland.
The last of the Irwins is Walt Irwin, who got into four games as a pinch runner and pinch hitter for the 1921 St. Louis Cardinals; he struck out in his only at-bat.
Orlando Isales started his pro career at the tender age of 15. By the time he reached the bigs in 1980, he was a veteran... at the age of 20. He played in three games for the Phillies in 1980; he went 2-for-5 with a triple, a walk, and three RBIs (.400/.500/.800!). But he never got another chance; he was in Triple-A for a few more years, then left for the Mexican League.
Travis Ishikawa is best remembered for his walk-off home run off Michael Wacha in the 2014 NLCS to send the Giants to the World Series for the third time in five seasons. "Smoky" only topped 200 AB once in his career, and accumulated just 1.1 career bWAR, but Giant fans won't ever forget him. He would later be a hitting coach for the Giants in the Arizona Fall League.
Akinori Iwamura was a top performer for the Yakult Swallows, topping .300 BA/30 HR in three straight seasons prior to signing with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2007. He hit a respectable .281/.354/.393 with the Rays over his first three MLB seasons, but cratered in 2010, hitting .182 with the Pirates and then .129 with the A's. After his release, the infielder would return to play in Japan for four more seasons.
Cuban-born catcher Hank Izquierdo went 7-for-26 in his only MLB season of 1967, playing for the Minnesota Twins. A lifer in the minor leagues, he didn't get the Call until he was 36 years old; his pro career started as a 20-year-old with Galveston in the Gulf Coast League in 1951, and ended with Veracruz in the Mexican League in 1974. He had 1,870 games in professional baseball, but only 16 in the bigs. He was later a minor league coach, a Mexican League manager, and a scout with the Minnesota Twins.
Another Cuban-born player, Hansel Izquierdo, defected when he was a teenager on the Cuban national junior team. He pitched in 20 games for the Florida Marlins in 2002, giving up 17 runs (15 earned) on 33 hits and 21 walks in 29.2 innings. He never resurfaced in the bigs, but he would pitch for 11 years in the minors, including stints with the White Sox, Expos, Yankees, and Pirates.
Cesar Izturis, Maicer's half-brother, played 13 years and accumulated 4,350 AB despite a career 64 OPS+, a testament to his glove. Over his career, the Venezuelan was 64 runs better than the average shortstop. Although his only All-Star selection came in 2005, his best year was the year before that, when he hit .288/.330/.381 in 670 AB, set career highs in nearly everything, and won a Gold Glove. His son, Cesar Izturis Jr., is a 20-year-old prospect in the Seattle Mariners system.
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2020.06.29 15:47 WallStreetBitch WKHS DD Thread - ALL ABOARD THE PONY EXPRESS!!! 🐴🦄🐴🦄🐴🦄🐴🦄

What is WKHS? What do they do?

Workhorse is based in Cincinnati, Ohio. It was founded in 1998, but didn’t take its current from until 2015. It manufactures electric delivery vans, intended to be used in city for last-mile delivery service. It’s a business-to-business play, not business-to-consumer. The company also owns a 10% stake in Lordstown Motors Corporation, which focuses more on consumer electric vehicles, and Lordstown revealed its electric pickup last week. That 10% stake alone could be worth $1B+ in the future. Details of the contract between WorkHorse and LordsTown are explained in their Q4 2019 ER. It was just added to Russell 3000 index today.

So it’s just all the electric cars hype bubble right?

Yes, and no. The hype in electric cars definitely helps with the stock price surge, and the recent addition of SHLL adds to that. But unlike NKLA, WKHS has been making and selling products for a while. It initially delivered vans to UPS back in 2015, and has been receiving orders and delivering vans since then. It currently has pending orders for 1000+ vans from UPS, with plan to deliver 300-400 vans in 2020. The recent surge in stock price was the run-up and result of its vans passing the federal safety tests. So the company actually has proven products, selling to customers in growing field of delivery as a byproduct of e-commerce boom. They also actually had positive earning for last quarter.

What about competition from TSLA, NKLA, and self-driving?

Unlike long-haul semi’s, last-mile delivery is the hardest to automate due to city driving and the need for dropping off package. They are also working on the one method that could somewhat automate the task, which is drone delivery. So WKHS is less vulnerable from competition of automation, because it will be the last part of the delivery process to be automated, and it’s working on its own automation solution.

Anyone else doing this?

Yeah, Rivian is also in the electric van business, and has an order from Amazon for 100,000 vans. It’s unfortunate that WKHS won’t be getting Amazon business, but Amazon going electric last-mile also proves the business model and advantage of all electric last-mile delivery.

Without Amazon, who else is WKHS going to sell to???

US-motherfucking-PS. USPS is looking to replace its aging fleet of mail trucks. There is a $6.3 billion contract up for grab, for 180,000 vans to be supplied over the span of 5 to 7 years. There are currently four teams bidding for the contract (Ford & Oshkosh, Karsan & Morgan Olsen, Mahindra, and Workhorse) and USPS has finished test driving their prototypes. USPS may award the contract to a single company, or split it up. Workhorse is one of the two teams offering full electric solution. With Amazon and UPS going full electric, USPS would be wise to go that way as well. Economically, full electric would make the most sense, but if politics comes into play, that may favor the traditional ICE’s offering by Ford. The bid deadline is July 14th, and result on who is/are winning the contract is expected in fall.

It has ran up so much. I missed the boat!

Well, maybe. WKHS is still under $1 billion in market cap. If it wins the $6.3 billion contract, it will easily be worth multi-billion right away. Rivian is valued at $5 to $7 billion with the Amazon contract under its belt, plus a consumer play. If Workhorse wins the full, or even partial USPS contract, the stock could easily be at $20.

What’s the play then?!?

I see two approaches. July and August calls for the current hype, and potential run up to July 14th, or Oct and Jan calls to hold through the USPS decision. Or shares would work too. The company has huge long term growth potential beyond the current hype.

So it’s free money? Tits up it cannot go?

Well, with the shorter term play, if you bought in at a run-up with high IV, you could get IV crushed, or the hype could die down for electric cars. The longer term play to hold through USPS decision could potentially be very profitable, but there is also risk of them not getting the contract. Personally I have July and August calls, but will add to Oct and Jan calls, and also looking to roll the July and August calls over to Oct and Jan.
Investor Presentation
Additional DD

Update 7/1/2020: BTIG upgraded the price target from $10 to $26.

Analyst Gregory Lewis at BTIG reiterated his buy rating on the electric van maker’s stock but boosted his price target to $26, which is 77% above current levels, from $10. Lewis said a key takeaway from a call he hosted with management on Tuesday was that the company has “first-mover” advantage, which was solidified when the Series C van received final regulatory safety approvals, giving the company a 1-to-2-year head start on other electric vehicle (EV) last-mile delivery competitors. He said this should allow the company to secure a revolving credit facility, which would allow it to scale up operations. Lewis said a major potential catalyst could be a $6 billion to $8 billion contract from the U.S. Postal Service, in which bids are due later this month, and an announcement of the winner is expected later this year. He said another bullish factor is the optionality around the company’s 10% equity stake in Lordstown Motors Corp., which unveiled its EV Endurance pickup truck last week.

Update 8/3/2020:

Lordstown Motor is going public through SPAC with $DPHC, at valuation of $1.6 billion. This puts the 10% stake WKHS has in Lordstown at $160 million. WKHS is up 23.6% today. USPS decision is still due in fall.

Update 8/6/2020:

Earning report will be on 8/10/2020 10 AM Eastern time. So any changes in position you'd like to do needs to be done tomorrow. I will reduce the number of my 8/21 calls if we get a good pop tomorrow. I personally don't expect ER to be a big factor in volatility, because whatever amount they may or may not earn will be small in comparison to the impact of the USPS contract, or whatever news and progress they may decide to report. So I expect IV crush on options to be less compare to a regular company. But that doesn't mean the stock can't fall if people aren't impressed with lack of new progress.
They had positive earnings for the past two quarters. Income from Q4 2019 was mostly from technology licensing to Lordstown and (partial?) divestiture of their drone technology. Net income was $655k for Q4 2019. For Q1 of 2020, they had $13 million income from interest due to warrants and change in value in convertible note (due to stock price change). So even though they had positive earnings, not much was from actual sales ($84K in Q1 2020). I think they've delivered just a couple of vehicles so far, with bulk of the delivery of 300-400 goal for this year due in Q4. So I don't expect to see much income from sales for Q2 2020 either. The expected EPS for Q2 2020 is -0.11.
Today on CNBC, the CEO mention that the USPS decision was originally outlined be about 90 days after the bid submission. So if all goes well, the decision shouldn't be later than the 10/16 option date. It could come sooner of course. Oh yeah, if they don't get the USPS contract, the stock will probably take a huge hit, so be warned about the risk.

Update 8/7/2020:

USPS is not in a great financial shape. They'll probably get funding increase, unless Trump throws a fit about mail-in ballots and try to get in the way of that, but this may delay the decision on granting the contract or reduce size of the contract. It may be a good idea to reduce position size and roll options out to Jan 20201 and beyond. This doesn't change potential of WorkHorse as a company, but options right now priced in a potential vast increase in the stock price from winning the contract, so the IV and theta bleed of near term options may not be worth it anymore.

Update 8/12/2020:

This article suggests that there isn't any interruption with the USPS project and it's being worked on. It may take longer than I initially thought, maybe up to October, for any resolution.

Update 8/25/2020:

LordsTown Motors made appearance on both DNC and RNC. The RNC appearance was a whole short segment specifically on how Trump is creating jobs in LordsTown. Now WKHS isn't the same as LordsTown Motors, but they are also in Ohio, and if they were to get a big part of the USPS contract, they would likely contract out LordsTown for part of the production, since LordsTown has the larger plant. Initially I was afraid of Ford's political connections and maybe the current administration isn't EV friendly. But these recent events eased some of that worry, because it confirmed the theory that WKHS and LordsTown may even be politically favored, due to the spotlight on Ohio.
If they're going to use the USPS contract as a political tool to "buy" Ohio, they would want to do it early enough so that it can affect people who vote early, so likely it wouldn't be dragged out to end of October. The October 16th options have a good chance. Jan ones would be the safest though.

Update 8/28/2020:

Someone on Twitter looked into announcement dates on past USPS contracts. The ones they listed all were made public in September. I don't know what portion those are, compare to all past USPS contracts awarded, so it's not a sure thing. But it does suggest good chance of the decision being announced in September. September will be the end of fiscal year, and timing would work for political boost mentioned in the previous update. A good point he made is that the delay of the project last year was also announced in September, because they knew they couldn't accommodate it by end of 2019 fiscal year. There could also be another announcement of delay this September as well, and that would send the stock down. I'm hoping the administration will push it through in an attempt to win Ohio. Likely whether win, lose, or delay, we'll find out in September. I'm going to start buying up puts to cover my call losses as well, in case lose or delay happens. The upside on the calls is enough to justify a good amount of put insurance.
There was a negative article about its drone today. The stock was trying to break out of a local wedge before the article came out. The drone program currently doesn't have too much weight in the company operations and valuation, but it was just another momentum breaker. The chart is in a big pennant since the initial July pop. I made good profit trading that bounce on the 24th where the local wedge met bottom of the pennant. I have a lot of 9/4 calls on top of my longer calls going into Monday, hoping for another bounce there, or maybe a small chance of the decision being announced at the start of September.

Update 8/31/2020:

I got that bounce I was looking for from the news about partnering with Hitachi. This bounce took us out of the upper bound of the pennant, and it found support there during the day. It remains to be seen whether this bounce sticks.

Update 9/8/2020:

We finally reached new ATH today after two months. There have been positive news scattered throughout the past week or so that I haven't been bothered to update the thread on. Oppenheimer began a coverage with buy rating with price target of $23, a couple of positive articles, and etc. No groundbreaking news yet. Today's big surge was partly due to NKLA's news of GM buying 10% (11%?) stake. It probably helps that we broke out from the big pennant and found solid support at the upper bound of pennant. People that have been watching on the side are stepping in to buy. Trading with the chart has been pretty successful for me. Of those past 3 reaction points circled in red, I've been able to get in with weekly calls and making a lot of profit on the bounce. I took a lot of profit around $22 today, then at $23, since I didn't expect that price to stick. It bounced pretty convincingly off the previous early Aug price of 20.66, even with the heavy general selling of the market. It has usually faded pretty hard after runs like this, so we'll see if the $20+ price holds.

Update 9/16/2020

There has been consistent insiders selling stocks in the past months. It could be that the value of the company has been so low for years that they’re taking this chance to reap some reward and don’t want to weather the risk of the contract decision. But it’s not a good visual. I will be limiting my exposure going forward.

Update 9/18/2020

We're still running, on hype alone.The recent breakout is in a giant rising wedge, and there would potentially be profit taking at $30, if we get there before USPS decision.
More thoughts on the insiders selling. Other than Benjamin's 24% sale, others selling around single digit to low double digit percentage of their shares is probably understandable. They know the company isn't worth $3 billion currently, without the USPS contract, and they're millionaires on paper, so they're taking some money for their years of work to take care of their family. I think the % of shares they sold is quite acceptable, and I would have probably done the same in their position.

Update 9/22/2020

Profit taking did start at $30 as I mentioned in the last update. What I didn’t realize was that the TSLA battery day probably was a factor for the run in the past few days. After all, if there was battery breakthrough, that’s good for all EV. But seems like the battery day did not meet expectation. We had general EV sell off today after Elon Tweeted last night to temper expectations. Judging by TSLA’s drop AH, we’ll probably get more EV sell off tomorrow. During the day, it broke the previous resistance turned support of $28, and we broke out of the big rising wedge we’ve been in, so it’s pretty bearish.
As bearish as the technicals are, a contract reward will rocket the stock back up regardless. I did pick up some calls at $27.5 that I’ll be down on tomorrow, as what I’ll hold through for rest of September for a potential decision, along with similar amount in puts. If there’s no announcement by end of month next week, there will be some serious selling, since many are expecting the decision to be made by end of September, the fiscal year.

Update 10/10/2020

September came and went with no USPS decision made. Many thought the decision would have been announced before end of the fiscal year, but that wasn't the case. Now people are pointing to October 13th, or 90 days since the contract submission deadline, as the date the decision might be reveal. This would line up with a source I saw which said it may take a couple of weeks after fiscal year ends for budget allocation.
There has been a lot of developments non-the-less. I'm going to be referring to u/vol_arb comments a lot, as he has done much more research than I have. He pointed out an Office of Inspector General's report made back in August on the progress of the USPS project. In essence, he has decoded the suppler lettering in the report, which showed WKHS and Mahindra had many issues with prototype failures during the test. Although the report did mention that USPS did not give participants enough time to design and build the prototypes, so I guess failures in hastily assembled prototypes are understandable. Other participants had less failures probably due to using mostly proven existing designs, and more experience in general. Also, the criteria for evaluating suitability of the suppliers put WKHS at a disadvantage:
Specifically, production proposals will be evaluated based on the following criteria: (1) Design Quality and Technical Approach, (2) Supplier Capability, and (3) Past Performance. Total cost of ownership, technical evaluation results, and risk will be weighed.
A short seller, FuzzyPanda, has published a hit piece on WKHS on October 8th. I thought the stock might get hit hard, considered what happened with NKLA, but it dove to about $22 pre-market then recovered. Here is vol_arb's thoughts on why the stock shrugged off the report.
On October 9th, the stock started running on what I assume is Roth Capital's positive view on WKHS's chance at the USPS contract. The story broke pre-market and the stock was moving up slowly until about noon. At first I thought other factor or news might be at play, but seems like it just took a while for that story to circulate. Another article came out AH essentially repeating the same thing, and that drove up the stock price even more in AH.
In summary, we may see a decision next Tuesday. While these findings with WKHS prototype issues and potential valid points in the short seller report reduces the chance of WKHS getting majority of the contract, they're probably not out of the running. I have 30x 10/16 $30 calls and 20x $20 puts.
submitted by WallStreetBitch to Winkerpack [link] [comments]


2020.06.26 15:03 freedomforg The manhattan project thing 2/5

Patterson approved the acquisition of the site on 25 November 1942, authorizing $440,000 for the purchase of the site of 54,000 acres (22,000 ha), all but 8,900 acres (3,600 ha) of which were already owned by the Federal Government.[95] Secretary of Agriculture Claude R. Wickard granted use of some 45,100 acres (18,300 ha) of United States Forest Service land to the War Department "for so long as the military necessity continues".[96] The need for land, for a new road, and later for a right of way for a 25-mile (40 km) power line, eventually brought wartime land purchases to 45,737 acres (18,509.1 ha), but only $414,971 was spent.[95] Construction was contracted to the M. M. Sundt Company of Tucson, Arizona, with Willard C. Kruger and Associates of Santa Fe, New Mexico, as architect and engineer. Work commenced in December 1942. Groves initially allocated $300,000 for construction, three times Oppenheimer's estimate, with a planned completion date of 15 March 1943. It soon became clear that the scope of Project Y was greater than expected, and by the time Sundt finished on 30 November 1943, over $7 million had been spent.[97]
Map of Los Alamos site, New Mexico, 1943–45
Because it was secret, Los Alamos was referred to as "Site Y" or "the Hill".[98] Birth certificates of babies born in Los Alamos during the war listed their place of birth as PO Box 1663 in Santa Fe.[99] Initially Los Alamos was to have been a military laboratory with Oppenheimer and other researchers commissioned into the Army. Oppenheimer went so far as to order himself a lieutenant colonel's uniform, but two key physicists, Robert Bacher and Isidor Rabi, balked at the idea. Conant, Groves and Oppenheimer then devised a compromise whereby the laboratory was operated by the University of California under contract to the War Department.[100]
Chicago
Main article: Metallurgical Laboratory
An Army-OSRD council on 25 June 1942 decided to build a pilot plant for plutonium production in Red Gate Woods southwest of Chicago. In July, Nichols arranged for a lease of 1,025 acres (415 ha) from the Cook County Forest Preserve District, and Captain James F. Grafton was appointed Chicago area engineer. It soon became apparent that the scale of operations was too great for the area, and it was decided to build the plant at Oak Ridge, and keep a research and testing facility in Chicago.[101][102]
Delays in establishing the plant in Red Gate Woods led Compton to authorize the Metallurgical Laboratory to construct the first nuclear reactor beneath the bleachers of Stagg Field at the University of Chicago. The reactor required an enormous amount of graphite blocks and uranium pellets. At the time, there was a limited source of pure uranium. Frank Spedding of Iowa State University were able to produce only two short tons of pure uranium. Additional three short tons of uranium metal was supplied by Westinghouse Lamp Plant which was produced in a rush with makeshift process. A large square balloon was constructed by Goodyear Tire to encase the reactor.[103][104] On 2 December 1942, a team led by Enrico Fermi initiated the first artificial[note 3] self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction in an experimental reactor known as Chicago Pile-1.[106] The point at which a reaction becomes self-sustaining became known as "going critical". Compton reported the success to Conant in Washington, D.C., by a coded phone call, saying, "The Italian navigator [Fermi] has just landed in the new world."[107][note 4]
In January 1943, Grafton's successor, Major Arthur V. Peterson, ordered Chicago Pile-1 dismantled and reassembled at Red Gate Woods, as he regarded the operation of a reactor as too hazardous for a densely populated area.[108] At the Argonne site, Chicago Pile-3, the first heavy water reactor, went critical on 15 May 1944.[109][110] After the war, the operations that remained at Red Gate moved to the new site of the Argonne National Laboratory about 6 miles (9.7 km) away.[102]
Hanford
Main article: Hanford Site
By December 1942 there were concerns that even Oak Ridge was too close to a major population center (Knoxville) in the unlikely event of a major nuclear accident. Groves recruited DuPont in November 1942 to be the prime contractor for the construction of the plutonium production complex. DuPont was offered a standard cost plus fixed-fee contract, but the President of the company, Walter S. Carpenter, Jr., wanted no profit of any kind, and asked for the proposed contract to be amended to explicitly exclude the company from acquiring any patent rights. This was accepted, but for legal reasons a nominal fee of one dollar was agreed upon. After the war, DuPont asked to be released from the contract early, and had to return 33 cents.[111]
A large crowd of sullen looking workmen at a counter where two women are writing. Some of the workmen are wearing identify photographs of themselves on their hats.
Hanford workers collect their paychecks at the Western Union office.
DuPont recommended that the site be located far from the existing uranium production facility at Oak Ridge.[112] In December 1942, Groves dispatched Colonel Franklin Matthias and DuPont engineers to scout potential sites. Matthias reported that Hanford Site near Richland, Washington, was "ideal in virtually all respects". It was isolated and near the Columbia River, which could supply sufficient water to cool the reactors that would produce the plutonium. Groves visited the site in January and established the Hanford Engineer Works (HEW), codenamed "Site W".[113]
Under Secretary Patterson gave his approval on 9 February, allocating $5 million for the acquisition of 40,000 acres (16,000 ha) of land in the area. The federal government relocated some 1,500 residents of White Bluffs and Hanford, and nearby settlements, as well as the Wanapum and other tribes using the area. A dispute arose with farmers over compensation for crops, which had already been planted before the land was acquired. Where schedules allowed, the Army allowed the crops to be harvested, but this was not always possible.[113] The land acquisition process dragged on and was not completed before the end of the Manhattan Project in December 1946.[114]
The dispute did not delay work. Although progress on the reactor design at Metallurgical Laboratory and DuPont was not sufficiently advanced to accurately predict the scope of the project, a start was made in April 1943 on facilities for an estimated 25,000 workers, half of whom were expected to live on-site. By July 1944, some 1,200 buildings had been erected and nearly 51,000 people were living in the construction camp. As area engineer, Matthias exercised overall control of the site.[115] At its peak, the construction camp was the third most populous town in Washington state.[116] Hanford operated a fleet of over 900 buses, more than the city of Chicago.[117] Like Los Alamos and Oak Ridge, Richland was a gated community with restricted access, but it looked more like a typical wartime American boomtown: the military profile was lower, and physical security elements like high fences, towers, and guard dogs were less evident.[118]
Canadian sites
Main article: Montreal Laboratory
British Columbia
Cominco had produced electrolytic hydrogen at Trail, British Columbia, since 1930. Urey suggested in 1941 that it could produce heavy water. To the existing $10 million plant consisting of 3,215 cells consuming 75 MW of hydroelectric power, secondary electrolysis cells were added to increase the deuterium concentration in the water from 2.3% to 99.8%. For this process, Hugh Taylor of Princeton developed a platinum-on-carbon catalyst for the first three stages while Urey developed a nickel-chromia one for the fourth stage tower. The final cost was $2.8 million. The Canadian Government did not officially learn of the project until August 1942. Trail's heavy water production started in January 1944 and continued until 1956. Heavy water from Trail was used for Chicago Pile 3, the first reactor using heavy water and natural uranium, which went critical on 15 May 1944.[119]
Ontario
The Chalk River, Ontario, site was established to rehouse the Allied effort at the Montreal Laboratory away from an urban area. A new community was built at Deep River, Ontario, to provide residences and facilities for the team members. The site was chosen for its proximity to the industrial manufacturing area of Ontario and Quebec, and proximity to a rail head adjacent to a large military base, Camp Petawawa. Located on the Ottawa River, it had access to abundant water. The first director of the new laboratory was Hans von Halban. He was replaced by John Cockcroft in May 1944, who in turn was succeeded by Bennett Lewis in September 1946. A pilot reactor known as ZEEP (zero-energy experimental pile) became the first Canadian reactor, and the first to be completed outside the United States, when it went critical in September 1945, ZEEP remained in use by researchers until 1970.[120] A larger 10 MW NRX reactor, which was designed during the war, was completed and went critical in July 1947.[119]
Northwest Territories
The Eldorado Mine at Port Radium was a source of uranium ore.[121]
Heavy water sites
Main article: P-9 Project
Although DuPont's preferred designs for the nuclear reactors were helium cooled and used graphite as a moderator, DuPont still expressed an interest in using heavy water as a backup, in case the graphite reactor design proved infeasible for some reason. For this purpose, it was estimated that 3 short tons (2.7 t) of heavy water would be required per month. The P-9 Project was the government's code name for the heavy water production program. As the plant at Trail, which was then under construction, could produce 0.5 short tons (0.45 t) per month, additional capacity was required. Groves therefore authorized DuPont to establish heavy water facilities at the Morgantown Ordnance Works, near Morgantown, West Virginia; at the Wabash River Ordnance Works, near Dana and Newport, Indiana; and at the Alabama Ordnance Works, near Childersburg and Sylacauga, Alabama. Although known as Ordnance Works and paid for under Ordnance Department contracts, they were built and operated by the Army Corps of Engineers. The American plants used a process different from Trail's; heavy water was extracted by distillation, taking advantage of the slightly higher boiling point of heavy water.[122][123]
Uranium
Ore
The key raw material for the project was uranium, which was used as fuel for the reactors, as feed that was transformed into plutonium, and, in its enriched form, in the atomic bomb itself. There were four known major deposits of uranium in 1940: in Colorado, in northern Canada, in Joachimsthal in Czechoslovakia, and in the Belgian Congo.[124] All but Joachimstal were in allied hands. A November 1942 survey determined that sufficient quantities of uranium were available to satisfy the project's requirements.[125] Nichols arranged with the State Department for export controls to be placed on uranium oxide and negotiated for the purchase of 1,200 short tons (1,100 t) of uranium ore from the Belgian Congo that was being stored in a warehouse on Staten Island and the remaining stocks of mined ore stored in the Congo. He negotiated with Eldorado Gold Mines for the purchase of ore from its refinery in Port Hope, Ontario, and its shipment in 100-ton lots. The Canadian government subsequently bought up the company's stock until it acquired a controlling interest.[126]
While these purchases assured a sufficient supply to meet wartime needs, the American and British leaders concluded that it was in their countries' interest to gain control of as much of the world's uranium deposits as possible. The richest source of ore was the Shinkolobwe mine in the Belgian Congo, but it was flooded and closed. Nichols unsuccessfully attempted to negotiate its reopening and the sale of the entire future output to the United States with Edgar Sengier, the director of the company that owned the mine, Union Minière du Haut Katanga.[127] The matter was then taken up by the Combined Policy Committee. As 30 percent of Union Minière's stock was controlled by British interests, the British took the lead in negotiations. Sir John Anderson and Ambassador John Winant hammered out a deal with Sengier and the Belgian government in May 1944 for the mine to be reopened and 1,720 short tons (1,560 t) of ore to be purchased at $1.45 a pound.[128] To avoid dependence on the British and Canadians for ore, Groves also arranged for the purchase of US Vanadium Corporation's stockpile in Uravan, Colorado. Uranium mining in Colorado yielded about 800 short tons (730 t) of ore.[129]
Mallinckrodt Incorporated in St. Louis, Missouri, took the raw ore and dissolved it in nitric acid to produce uranyl nitrate. Ether was then added in a liquid–liquid extraction process to separate the impurities from the uranyl nitrate. This was then heated to form uranium trioxide, which was reduced to highly pure uranium dioxide.[130] By July 1942, Mallinckrodt was producing a ton of highly pure oxide a day, but turning this into uranium metal initially proved more difficult for contractors Westinghouse and Metal Hydrides.[131] Production was too slow and quality was unacceptably low. A special branch of the Metallurgical Laboratory was established at Iowa State College in Ames, Iowa, under Frank Spedding to investigate alternatives. This became known as the Ames Project, and its Ames process became available in 1943.[132]
Uranium refining at Ames
A "bomb" (pressure vessel) containing uranium halide and sacrificial metal, probably magnesium, being lowered into a furnace
After the reaction, the interior of a bomb coated with remnant slag
A uranium metal "biscuit" from the reduction reaction
Isotope separation
Natural uranium consists of 99.3% uranium-238 and 0.7% uranium-235, but only the latter is fissile. The chemically identical uranium-235 has to be physically separated from the more plentiful isotope. Various methods were considered for uranium enrichment, most of which was carried out at Oak Ridge.[133]
The most obvious technology, the centrifuge, failed, but electromagnetic separation, gaseous diffusion, and thermal diffusion technologies were all successful and contributed to the project. In February 1943, Groves came up with the idea of using the output of some plants as the input for others.[134]
Contour map of the Oak Ridge area. There is a river to the south, while the township is in the north.
Oak Ridge hosted several uranium separation technologies. The Y-12 electromagnetic separation plant is in the upper right. The K-25 and K-27 gaseous diffusion plants are in the lower left, near the S-50 thermal diffusion plant. (The X-10 was for plutonium production.)
Centrifuges
The centrifuge process was regarded as the only promising separation method in April 1942.[135] Jesse Beams had developed such a process at the University of Virginia during the 1930s, but had encountered technical difficulties. The process required high rotational speeds, but at certain speeds harmonic vibrations developed that threatened to tear the machinery apart. It was therefore necessary to accelerate quickly through these speeds. In 1941 he began working with uranium hexafluoride, the only known gaseous compound of uranium, and was able to separate uranium-235. At Columbia, Urey had Karl Cohen investigate the process, and he produced a body of mathematical theory making it possible to design a centrifugal separation unit, which Westinghouse undertook to construct.[136]
Scaling this up to a production plant presented a formidable technical challenge. Urey and Cohen estimated that producing a kilogram (2.2 lb) of uranium-235 per day would require up to 50,000 centrifuges with 1-meter (3 ft 3 in) rotors, or 10,000 centrifuges with 4-meter (13 ft) rotors, assuming that 4-meter rotors could be built. The prospect of keeping so many rotors operating continuously at high speed appeared daunting,[137] and when Beams ran his experimental apparatus, he obtained only 60% of the predicted yield, indicating that more centrifuges would be required. Beams, Urey and Cohen then began work on a series of improvements which promised to increase the efficiency of the process. However, frequent failures of motors, shafts and bearings at high speeds delayed work on the pilot plant.[138] In November 1942 the centrifuge process was abandoned by the Military Policy Committee following a recommendation by Conant, Nichols and August C. Klein of Stone & Webster.[139]
Although the centrifuge method was abandoned by the Manhattan Project, research into it advanced significantly after the war with the introduction of the Zippe-type centrifuge, which was developed in the Soviet Union by Soviet and captured German engineers.[140] It eventually became the preferred method of Uranium isotope separation, being far more economical than the other separation methods used during WWII.[141]
Electromagnetic separation
Main article: Y-12 Project
Electromagnetic isotope separation was developed by Lawrence at the University of California Radiation Laboratory. This method employed devices known as calutrons, a hybrid of the standard laboratory mass spectrometer and the cyclotron magnet. The name was derived from the words California, university and cyclotron.[142] In the electromagnetic process, a magnetic field deflected charged particles according to mass.[143] The process was neither scientifically elegant nor industrially efficient.[144] Compared with a gaseous diffusion plant or a nuclear reactor, an electromagnetic separation plant would consume more scarce materials, require more manpower to operate, and cost more to build. Nonetheless, the process was approved because it was based on proven technology and therefore represented less risk. Moreover, it could be built in stages, and rapidly reach industrial capacity.[142]
A large oval-shaped structure
Alpha I racetrack at Y-12
Marshall and Nichols discovered that the electromagnetic isotope separation process would require 5,000 short tons (4,500 tonnes) of copper, which was in desperately short supply. However, silver could be substituted, in an 11:10 ratio. On 3 August 1942, Nichols met with Under Secretary of the Treasury Daniel W. Bell and asked for the transfer of 6,000 tons of silver bullion from the West Point Bullion Depository. "Young man," Bell told him, "you may think of silver in tons but the Treasury will always think of silver in troy ounces!"[145] Eventually, 14,700 short tons (13,300 tonnes; 430,000,000 troy ounces) were used.[146]
The 1,000-troy-ounce (31 kg) silver bars were cast into cylindrical billets and taken to Phelps Dodge in Bayway, New Jersey, where they were extruded into strips 0.625 inches (15.9 mm) thick, 3 inches (76 mm) wide and 40 feet (12 m) long. These were wound onto magnetic coils by Allis-Chalmers in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. After the war, all the machinery was dismantled and cleaned and the floorboards beneath the machinery were ripped up and burned to recover minute amounts of silver. In the end, only 1/3,600,000th was lost.[146][147] The last silver was returned in May 1970.[148]
Responsibility for the design and construction of the electromagnetic separation plant, which came to be called Y-12, was assigned to Stone & Webster by the S-1 Committee in June 1942. The design called for five first-stage processing units, known as Alpha racetracks, and two units for final processing, known as Beta racetracks. In September 1943 Groves authorized construction of four more racetracks, known as Alpha II. Construction began in February 1943.[149]
When the plant was started up for testing on schedule in October, the 14-ton vacuum tanks crept out of alignment because of the power of the magnets, and had to be fastened more securely. A more serious problem arose when the magnetic coils started shorting out. In December Groves ordered a magnet to be broken open, and handfuls of rust were found inside. Groves then ordered the racetracks to be torn down and the magnets sent back to the factory to be cleaned. A pickling plant was established on-site to clean the pipes and fittings.[144] The second Alpha I was not operational until the end of January 1944, the first Beta and first and third Alpha I's came online in March, and the fourth Alpha I was operational in April. The four Alpha II racetracks were completed between July and October 1944.[150]
A long corridor with many consoles with dials and switches, attended by women seated on high stools
Calutron Girls were young women who monitored calutron control panels at Y-12. Gladys Owens, seated in the foreground, was unaware of what she had been involved with until seeing this photo on a public tour of the facility 50 years later. Photo by Ed Westcott.[151]
Tennessee Eastman was contracted to manage Y-12 on the usual cost plus fixed-fee basis, with a fee of $22,500 per month plus $7,500 per racetrack for the first seven racetracks and $4,000 per additional racetrack.[152] The calutrons were initially operated by scientists from Berkeley to remove bugs and achieve a reasonable operating rate. They were then turned over to trained Tennessee Eastman operators who had only a high school education. Nichols compared unit production data, and pointed out to Lawrence that the young "hillbilly" girl operators were outperforming his PhDs. They agreed to a production race and Lawrence lost, a morale boost for the Tennessee Eastman workers and supervisors. The girls were "trained like soldiers not to reason why", while "the scientists could not refrain from time-consuming investigation of the cause of even minor fluctuations of the dials."[153]
Y-12 initially enriched the uranium-235 content to between 13% and 15%, and shipped the first few hundred grams of this to Los Alamos in March 1944. Only 1 part in 5,825 of the uranium feed emerged as final product. Much of the rest was splattered over equipment in the process. Strenuous recovery efforts helped raise production to 10% of the uranium-235 feed by January 1945. In February the Alpha racetracks began receiving slightly enriched (1.4%) feed from the new S-50 thermal diffusion plant. The next month it received enhanced (5%) feed from the K-25 gaseous diffusion plant. By August K-25 was producing uranium sufficiently enriched to feed directly into the Beta tracks.[154]
Gaseous diffusion
Main article: K-25
The most promising but also the most challenging method of isotope separation was gaseous diffusion. Graham's law states that the rate of effusion of a gas is inversely proportional to the square root of its molecular mass, so in a box containing a semi-permeable membrane and a mixture of two gases, the lighter molecules will pass out of the container more rapidly than the heavier molecules. The gas leaving the container is somewhat enriched in the lighter molecules, while the residual gas is somewhat depleted. The idea was that such boxes could be formed into a cascade of pumps and membranes, with each successive stage containing a slightly more enriched mixture. Research into the process was carried out at Columbia University by a group that included Harold Urey, Karl P. Cohen, and John R. Dunning.[155]
Oblique aerial view of an enormous U-shaped building
Oak Ridge K-25 plant
In November 1942 the Military Policy Committee approved the construction of a 600-stage gaseous diffusion plant.[156] On 14 December, M. W. Kellogg accepted an offer to construct the plant, which was codenamed K-25. A cost plus fixed-fee contract was negotiated, eventually totaling $2.5 million. A separate corporate entity called Kellex was created for the project, headed by Percival C. Keith, one of Kellogg's vice presidents.[157] The process faced formidable technical difficulties. The highly corrosive gas uranium hexafluoride would have to be used, as no substitute could be found, and the motors and pumps would have to be vacuum tight and enclosed in inert gas. The biggest problem was the design of the barrier, which would have to be strong, porous and resistant to corrosion by uranium hexafluoride. The best choice for this seemed to be nickel. Edward Adler and Edward Norris created a mesh barrier from electroplated nickel. A six-stage pilot plant was built at Columbia to test the process, but the Norris-Adler prototype proved to be too brittle. A rival barrier was developed from powdered nickel by Kellex, the Bell Telephone Laboratories and the Bakelite Corporation. In January 1944, Groves ordered the Kellex barrier into production.[158][159]
Kellex's design for K-25 called for a four-story 0.5-mile (0.80 km) long U-shaped structure containing 54 contiguous buildings. These were divided into nine sections. Within these were cells of six stages. The cells could be operated independently, or consecutively within a section. Similarly, the sections could be operated separately or as part of a single cascade. A survey party began construction by marking out the 500-acre (2.0 km2) site in May 1943. Work on the main building began in October 1943, and the six-stage pilot plant was ready for operation on 17 April 1944. In 1945 Groves canceled the upper stages of the plant, directing Kellex to instead design and build a 540-stage side feed unit, which became known as K-27. Kellex transferred the last unit to the operating contractor, Union Carbide and Carbon, on 11 September 1945. The total cost, including the K-27 plant completed after the war, came to $480 million.[160]
The production plant commenced operation in February 1945, and as cascade after cascade came online, the quality of the product increased. By April 1945, K-25 had attained a 1.1% enrichment and the output of the S-50 thermal diffusion plant began being used as feed. Some product produced the next month reached nearly 7% enrichment. In August, the last of the 2,892 stages commenced operation. K-25 and K-27 achieved their full potential in the early postwar period, when they eclipsed the other production plants and became the prototypes for a new generation of plants.[161]
Thermal diffusion
Main article: S-50 Project
The thermal diffusion process was based on Sydney Chapman and David Enskog's theory, which explained that when a mixed gas passes through a temperature gradient, the heavier one tends to concentrate at the cold end and the lighter one at the warm end. Since hot gases tend to rise and cool ones tend to fall, this can be used as a means of isotope separation. This process was first demonstrated by Klaus Clusius and Gerhard Dickel in Germany in 1938.[162] It was developed by US Navy scientists, but was not one of the enrichment technologies initially selected for use in the Manhattan Project. This was primarily due to doubts about its technical feasibility, but the inter-service rivalry between the Army and Navy also played a part.[163]
A factory with three smoking chimneys on a river bend, viewed from above
The S-50 plant is the dark building to the upper left behind the Oak Ridge powerhouse (with smoke stacks).
The Naval Research Laboratory continued the research under Philip Abelson's direction, but there was little contact with the Manhattan Project until April 1944, when Captain William S. Parsons, the naval officer in charge of ordnance development at Los Alamos, brought Oppenheimer news of encouraging progress in the Navy's experiments on thermal diffusion. Oppenheimer wrote to Groves suggesting that the output of a thermal diffusion plant could be fed into Y-12. Groves set up a committee consisting of Warren K. Lewis, Eger Murphree and Richard Tolman to investigate the idea, and they estimated that a thermal diffusion plant costing $3.5 million could enrich 50 kilograms (110 lb) of uranium per week to nearly 0.9% uranium-235. Groves approved its construction on 24 June 1944.[164]
Groves contracted with the H. K. Ferguson Company of Cleveland, Ohio, to build the thermal diffusion plant, which was designated S-50. Groves's advisers, Karl Cohen and W. I. Thompson from Standard Oil,[165] estimated that it would take six months to build. Groves gave Ferguson just four. Plans called for the installation of 2,142 48-foot-tall (15 m) diffusion columns arranged in 21 racks. Inside each column were three concentric tubes. Steam, obtained from the nearby K-25 powerhouse at a pressure of 100 pounds per square inch (690 kPa) and temperature of 545 °F (285 °C), flowed downward through the innermost 1.25-inch (32 mm) nickel pipe, while water at 155 °F (68 °C) flowed upward through the outermost iron pipe. The uranium hexafluoride flowed in the middle copper pipe, and isotope separation of the uranium occurred between the nickel and copper pipes.[166]
Work commenced on 9 July 1944, and S-50 began partial operation in September. Ferguson operated the plant through a subsidiary known as Fercleve. The plant produced just 10.5 pounds (4.8 kg) of 0.852% uranium-235 in October. Leaks limited production and forced shutdowns over the next few months, but in June 1945 it produced 12,730 pounds (5,770 kg).[167] By March 1945, all 21 production racks were operating. Initially the output of S-50 was fed into Y-12, but starting in March 1945 all three enrichment processes were run in series. S-50 became the first stage, enriching from 0.71% to 0.89%. This material was fed into the gaseous diffusion process in the K-25 plant, which produced a product enriched to about 23%. This was, in turn, fed into Y-12,[168] which boosted it to about 89%, sufficient for nuclear weapons.[169]
Aggregate U-235 production
About 50 kilograms (110 lb) of uranium enriched to 89% uranium-235 was delivered to Los Alamos by July 1945.[169] The entire 50 kg, along with some 50%-enriched, averaging out to about 85% enriched, were used in Little Boy.[169]
Plutonium
The second line of development pursued by the Manhattan Project used the fissile element plutonium. Although small amounts of plutonium exist in nature, the best way to obtain large quantities of the element is in a nuclear reactor, in which natural uranium is bombarded by neutrons. The uranium-238 is transmuted into uranium-239, which rapidly decays, first into neptunium-239 and then into plutonium-239.[170] Only a small amount of the uranium-238 will be transformed, so the plutonium must be chemically separated from the remaining uranium, from any initial impurities, and from fission products.[170]
X-10 Graphite Reactor
Main article: X-10 Graphite Reactor
Two workmen on a movable platform similar to that used by window washers, stick a rod into one of many small holes in the wall in front of them.
Workers load uranium slugs into the X-10 Graphite Reactor.
In March 1943, DuPont began construction of a plutonium plant on a 112-acre (0.5 km2) site at Oak Ridge. Intended as a pilot plant for the larger production facilities at Hanford, it included the air-cooled X-10 Graphite Reactor, a chemical separation plant, and support facilities. Because of the subsequent decision to construct water-cooled reactors at Hanford, only the chemical separation plant operated as a true pilot.[171] The X-10 Graphite Reactor consisted of a huge block of graphite, 24 feet (7.3 m) long on each side, weighing around 1,500 short tons (1,400 t), surrounded by 7 feet (2.1 m) of high-density concrete as a radiation shield.[171]
The greatest difficulty was encountered with the uranium slugs produced by Mallinckrodt and Metal Hydrides. These somehow had to be coated in aluminum to avoid corrosion and the escape of fission products into the cooling system. The Grasselli Chemical Company attempted to develop a hot dipping process without success. Meanwhile, Alcoa tried canning. A new process for flux-less welding was developed, and 97% of the cans passed a standard vacuum test, but high temperature tests indicated a failure rate of more than 50%. Nonetheless, production began in June 1943. The Metallurgical Laboratory eventually developed an improved welding technique with the help of General Electric, which was incorporated into the production process in October 1943.[172]
Watched by Fermi and Compton, the X-10 Graphite Reactor went critical on 4 November 1943 with about 30 short tons (27 t) of uranium. A week later the load was increased to 36 short tons (33 t), raising its power generation to 500 kW, and by the end of the month the first 500 mg of plutonium was created.[173] Modifications over time raised the power to 4,000 kW in July 1944. X-10 operated as a production plant until January 1945, when it was turned over to research activities.[174]
Hanford reactors
Main article: Hanford Site
Although an air-cooled design was chosen for the reactor at Oak Ridge to facilitate rapid construction, it was recognized that this would be impractical for the much larger production reactors. Initial designs by the Metallurgical Laboratory and DuPont used helium for cooling, before they determined that a water-cooled reactor would be simpler, cheaper and quicker to build.[175] The design did not become available until 4 October 1943; in the meantime, Matthias concentrated on improving the Hanford Site by erecting accommodations, improving the roads, building a railway switch line, and upgrading the electricity, water and telephone lines.[176]
An aerial view of the Hanford B-Reactor site from June 1944. At center is the reactor building. Small trucks dot the landscape and give a sense of scale. Two large water towers loom above the plant.
Aerial view of Hanford B-Reactor site, June 1944
As at Oak Ridge, the most difficulty was encountered while canning the uranium slugs, which commenced at Hanford in March 1944. They were pickled to remove dirt and impurities, dipped in molten bronze, tin, and aluminum-silicon alloy, canned using hydraulic presses, and then capped using arc welding under an argon atmosphere. Finally, they were subjected to a series of tests to detect holes or faulty welds. Disappointingly, most canned slugs initially failed the tests, resulting in an output of only a handful of canned slugs per day. But steady progress was made and by June 1944 production increased to the point where it appeared that enough canned slugs would be available to start Reactor B on schedule in August 1944.[177]
Work began on Reactor B, the first of six planned 250 MW reactors, on 10 October 1943.[178] The reactor complexes were given letter designations A through F, with B, D and F sites chosen to be developed first, as this maximised the distance between the reactors. They would be the only ones constructed during the Manhattan Project.[179] Some 390 short tons (350 t) of steel, 17,400 cubic yards (13,300 m3) of concrete, 50,000 concrete blocks and 71,000 concrete bricks were used to construct the 120-foot (37 m) high building.
Construction of the reactor itself commenced in February 1944.[180] Watched by Compton, Matthias, DuPont's Crawford Greenewalt, Leona Woods and Fermi, who inserted the first slug, the reactor was powered up beginning on 13 September 1944. Over the next few days, 838 tubes were loaded and the reactor went critical. Shortly after midnight on 27 September, the operators began to withdraw the control rods to initiate production. At first all appeared well but around 03:00 the power level started to drop and by 06:30 the reactor had shut down completely. The cooling water was investigated to see if there was a leak or contamination. The next day the reactor started up again, only to shut down once more.[181][182]
Fermi contacted Chien-Shiung Wu, who identified the cause of the problem as neutron poisoning from xenon-135, which has a half-life of 9.2 hours.[183] Fermi, Woods, Donald J. Hughes and John Archibald Wheeler then calculated the nuclear cross section of xenon-135, which turned out to be 30,000 times that of uranium.[184] DuPont engineer George Graves had deviated from the Metallurgical Laboratory's original design in which the reactor had 1,500 tubes arranged in a circle, and had added an additional 504 tubes to fill in the corners. The scientists had originally considered this overengineering a waste of time and money, but Fermi realized that by loading all 2,004 tubes, the reactor could reach the required power level and efficiently produce plutonium.[185] Reactor D was started on 17 December 1944 and Reactor F on 25 February 1945.[186]
Separation process
A contour map showing the fork of the Columbia and Yakima rivers and the boundary of the land, with seven small red squares marked on it
Map of the Hanford Site. Railroads flank the plants to the north and south. Reactors are the three northernmost red squares, along the Columbia River. The separation plants are the lower two red squares from the grouping south of the reactors. The bottom red square is the 300 area.
Meanwhile, the chemists considered the problem of how plutonium could be separated from uranium when its chemical properties were not known. Working with the minute quantities of plutonium available at the Metallurgical Laboratory in 1942, a team under Charles M. Cooper developed a lanthanum fluoride process for separating uranium and plutonium, which was chosen for the pilot separation plant. A second separation process, the bismuth phosphate process, was subsequently developed by Seaborg and Stanly G. Thomson.[187] This process worked by toggling plutonium between its +4 and +6 oxidation states in solutions of bismuth phosphate. In the former state, the plutonium was precipitated; in the latter, it stayed in solution and the other products were precipitated.[188]
Greenewalt favored the bismuth phosphate process due to the corrosive nature of lanthanum fluoride, and it was selected for the Hanford separation plants.[189] Once X-10 began producing plutonium, the pilot separation plant was put to the test. The first batch was processed at 40% efficiency but over the next few months this was raised to 90%.[174]
At Hanford, top priority was initially given to the installations in the 300 area. This contained buildings for testing materials, preparing uranium, and assembling and calibrating instrumentation. One of the buildings housed the canning equipment for the uranium slugs, while another contained a small test reactor. Notwithstanding the high priority allocated to it, work on the 300 area fell behind schedule due to the unique and complex nature of the 300 area facilities, and wartime shortages of labor and materials.[190]
Early plans called for the construction of two separation plants in each of the areas known as 200-West and 200-East. This was subsequently reduced to two, the T and U plants, in 200-West and one, the B plant, at 200-East.[191] Each separation plant consisted of four buildings: a process cell building or "canyon" (known as 221), a concentration building (224), a purification building (231) and a magazine store (213). The canyons were each 800 feet (240 m) long and 65 feet (20 m) wide. Each consisted of forty 17.7-by-13-by-20-foot (5.4 by 4.0 by 6.1 m) cells.[192]
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2020.06.16 23:25 Valincity Verizon Analysis

Hey everyone! I have been a lurker of the sub for a while. I just graduated (3 days ago from writing this post) from university with a degree in finance and I focused on classes where we analyzing companies as I find it very intriguing and I have actually found fun. This last quarter I took an equity analysis class and was pretty limited in what I was allowed to analyze, no FI's, or any equity analyzed in the last 4 years by another student. I ended up choosing Verizon as I thought it would be a start on learning and practicing. Here is my analysis and my hope is if any professionals out there would be willing to go through and give their input, advice, and be a critic on how to improve on my future analysis.
Some formatting may look funky as this was originally in a word doc that didn't exactly transfer over well.
Also I was forced to delete some tables and graphs due to the 20 picture upload limit, specifically I deleted MV of Debt calculations, some tables in the appendix representing WACC and cost of Equity, industry average statistics, which can be googled, my calculation of FCFE, as well as a few other minor tables, if the text refers to a table that isn't there that would be why, and I can provide to anyone upon request.
Thanks to anyone taking the time. I greatly appreciate it.

Student Research Telecommunication
Verizon
6/16/2020
Ticker: VZ
Recommendation: HOLD
Price: $56.92 Price Target: $64.42
Highlights
· In the beginning of a 5g upgrade cycle, a significant opportunity to be a growth driver in the North American wireless market for Verizon.
· Verizon’s profit margin is at 14.61%, double compared to their competitors
· Stock market fluctuations low relative to the general market, a beta of .7, and a safe industry that many consumers deem as essential, relatively “recession proof”
· A dividend yield of 4.5%
Investment Summary
Dividend Growth: The company is in its mature stage cycle with an established industry and market presence. Verizon has stable revenues with limited opportunity for growth outside of an acquisition of a smaller mobile carrier. This allows us to value Verizon mostly from its’ dividend growth. Historically, Verizon has a growth rate of 2.6% in the last 10 years, in the last 5, they have a historical growth rate of 5%. A growth rate of 3.5% is estimated to be Verizon’s growth rate moving forward. Fortunately, the industry business model allows for constant cash flow and sustainability in the mature stage cycle.
Expansion: 5g is the one of the few areas for growth still available to Verizon, 5g refers to the next generation in wireless data transfer technology. This new technology will increase data transfer rates by up to 100-fold. The last technological advancement with 4g impacted Verizon by increasing revenues by up to 5% one year and averaged revenue growth 4.3% annually for 4 years. This effectively doubled Verizon’s revenue growth average of 2.3% annually. Outside of 5g Verizon still has expansion options including expanding its wired FIOS network, and its online presence under Verizon Media Group.
Stability: Verizon is a stable cash flow company with an adjusted beta of .7. This illustrates the safety of the company’s stock. Verizon has little room for growth in the saturated wireless telecom market, meaning Verizon’s stock price is not likely to explode in value in the future. However, historically Verizon’s stock price does not fall substantially relative to the general market when macroeconomic forces cause the market to fall. Verizon is not currently competing with other equities as it is with safe debt in our current economic environment. This is because of the current interest rate environment on the U.S. 10-year being less than 1%. This causes investors to look for other high-quality investment alternatives that deliver better yield. Verizon satisfies this type of investor with a yield of over 4% as well as providing market exposure from the general market.
Execution: The biggest potential obstacle currently facing Verizon is their execution of rolling out 5g technology. Any hinderance can result in missed revenue, with next year’s iPhone coming out with 5g capable technology, which the iPhone has over 50% market share alone in the smartphone market, could cause many customers to switch to a competitor if Verizon cannot meet demand by that point. Let alone the other half of the market, largely denominated in various android devices, already has 5g capable technology. Should Verizon miss the mark, it could potentially hurt the company for years. However, according to Verizon’s CTO, as of the end of May, they are ahead of schedule deploying 5g. Verizon has a history and reputation of being on top of deploying new technology quickly, while being ahead of schedule, it is plausible to see many customers switch over to Verizon to take advantage of their 5g if Verizon’s competitors can’t meet the 5g demand. Verizon management needs to be able to take advantage of this new technology by charging higher prices to their mobile customers. Any lack in the execution could result in bad revenues and earnings.
Business Description
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) is the parent company to Verizon Consumer Group and Verizon Business Group. Verizon provides services such as communications, entertainment, and information to consumer, business, and governmental customers. Employing 135,000 people, 96% are located in the U.S. and over 2,300 retail stores open, and headquartered in New York, NY. In 1877 the bell system was created in the name of Alexander Graham Bell, over time the company slowly expanded across the U.S. and Canada over the next 100 years. Over the years the system evolved to AT&T controlling a bunch of regional company’s providing land line service. In 1982 the U.S. government broke up the monopoly AT&T had into the regional companies, this plan was originally proposed by AT&T. This event was known as the breakup of the bell system and the companies post breakup were known as the “baby bells”. Two of the companies as a result of this breakup were Bell Atlantic Corp. and GTE Corp. Verizon was formed in June 2000 with the merger of Bell Atlantic Corp. based in New York city and GTE Corp. based in Irving Texas. Both firms were some of the largest in the industry, and both were heavily focused on the eastern side of the U.S.
Table 1 below shows Verizon’s consolidated revenues for the years 2019 and 2018. Revenues are broken down into their three subsidiaries of Verizon Consumer, Verizon Business and Verizon Corporate. Eliminations refers to the exchange of cash between these segments as it is not new revenue. Below explains each segment and where each segment gets their revenue broken into a percentage.
Table 1

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Verizon Consumer Group offers wireless and wireline communications, branded the most extensive wireless network in the U.S., North America is where over 95% of their revenue comes from geographically, the other 5% comes from overseas in Japan, Central America, and selective parts of Europe. Wireline is provided in North Eastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. over fiber-optic lines through their Fios brand, or wireless services provided nationwide on hotspot devices or mobile phones. Both wireline and wireless can be prepaid or postpaid, the majority are in the postpaid segment, paying monthly for the services. The consumer segment provides data connection to 95 million wireless mobile connections, 6 million broadband connections, and 4 million Fios connections: making up 68.8% of revenues.

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Verizon Business Group provides the same services to corporate and some governmental agencies with additional services such as “video and data services, corporate networking solutions, security and managed network services, local and long distance voice services and network access to deliver various Internet of Things (IoT) services and products including solutions that support fleet tracking management, compliance management, field service management, and asset tracking” according to Verizon’s 2019 annual report. In all, Verizon’s Business Group is in a position to solve more complex problems that may come up at a business compared to their Consumer Group. Verizon Business Group provides 25million wireless connections and 489 thousand broadband connections: making up 23.8% of total revenues.
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Verizon Corporate includes media business, investments in businesses, and financing expenses outside of the regular course of business. The biggest section here is Verizon Media which provides third party entertainment services such as email, news, and streaming services to customers. Verizon Corporate makes up 7.4% of total revenues.

Verizon plans to position themselves into future growth trends such as increased expansion of their wireless network, high-speed fiber, and the new introduction of high-speed 5g connections on mobile devices or in-home. With over 17.9 billion invested for capital expenditures at end of year 2019 for 5g technology release.

Environmental, Social, Governance and Management Quality
Environmental criteria include the company’s impact on the environment such as energy use, waste output, and pollution production. In the last 10 years so called “green bonds” has been discussed more about and demand for them has slowly been rising. These green bonds are any bonds issued by a company, where all the money raised from the bonds goes towards any ESG related goal. Verizon in February 2019 issued their first green bond to the total of $1 billion, this is the first green bond issued in the telecom industry as well. Verizon has stated they are committed to being completely carbon neutral in their operations by 2035; this propagates their current goal to “generate renewable energy equivalent to 50% of our total annual electricity consumption by 2025”. Finally, Verizon has stated that they are committed to setting an annual emissions reduction target by fall 2021.
Social criteria include the relationships the company has with business partners, local communities, employee health and safety, and any other “stakeholder” that the company impacts. Verizon claims to focus on their customers upmost before most other stakeholders, they reinforce this through their actions and from their goal of being the best and most reliable network in the U.S. and serves this goal mainly through delivering high quality services through their wireless segment at a reasonable price. Outside of customers Verizon is aiming to contribute 2.5 million hours of volunteer work through their 135 thousand employees, these hours are aimed to improve “digital inclusion, climate protection, and human prosperity”. In Cleveland, Ohio the company is launching 5g enabled classrooms to deliver instruction in struggling middle schools and aims to expand this effort to 100 middle schools in total by 2021. Additionally, to evaluate the employee side of social criteria using a website called Glassdoor is used. Glassdoor is a website where current or past employees can rate the company anonymously on salary, benefits, satisfaction, outlook of the company, and their experience at the company; however, Glassdoor has been known to be biased at times. Verizon has over 21 thousand reviews on Glassdoor, from this large amount of reviews it can be taken with some accuracy. Considering all 21 thousand reviews they are rated at a 74% satisfaction rating, and 68% approve of the CEO, whereas AT&T has a 68% satisfaction rating and 51% approve of the CEO. At Verizon a controversial subject among employees are work-life balance with a 50% split on it needing some improvement or that it is adequate. Over 8,000 reviews claim that Verizon is a good employer when relating to pay and benefits.
Governance criteria includes how transparent and accurate the financial statements are, avoiding conflicts of interest among the executives and board members, and ensuring the company is not engaging in any illegal activities. As far as engaging in illegal activities Verizon has a good track record and no one suspects any major allegations against Verizon, with Verizon being a U.S. dominant business they mostly just have to obey rules and regulations within the U.S. and not balancing between international laws. Verizon has been clear in all of its financial reporting, obeying all GAAP rules and even going above the mark to provide additional information that is non-GAAP with disclosures. Conflicts of interest among the board members meet all laws and guidelines from the NYSE and NASDAQ. Verizon’s board members also meet the “heightened independence criteria” rules from the NYSE and Nasdaq. Regarding the green bond discussed above, they have and will report on how much of the green bond money has been spent and on what projects the money is going to until the note matures.
Overall Verizon is a quality company with quality management, among the 9 board members currently, 3 are African American, and 2 are woman. The company CEO, Hans Vestberg has been with the company since 2017, and CEO since 2018, a noticeably short amount of time compared to peers at AT&T whose CEO has been with the company since 2007. Verizon’s CFO, Matthew Ellis, has been with Verizon since 2016. Verizon’s management is relatively new and most likely experiencing a learning curve still, but so far, they have made strides in redefining Verizon and shows promise to be a strong team long term. Sustainalytics is an ESG rating company who rates companies on a scale of 0-100, they rate VZ at a score of 20, AT&T with a score of 19, and T-Mobile with a score of 25. This is a low score, however, ESG scores are highly subjective and vary widely among different ESG ratings companies. Verizon does not participate in any of the “high risk” ESG industries such as oil or mining, meaning in the grand scheme of company’s they are a relatively sustainable company. While the company can always do better, they aim to bring diversity to the company and strive for transparency.
Demographic Trends
Companies should be aware of demographics and which ones their customers fall under, this information can provide to a company who their core customer base is, and which segments they can expand into. There are many demographics out there, each with their own preferences, tolerances, and taste. Gender, race, and age are the three big demographics, however, there are many more than those three and each can be combined or divided into bigger or smaller groups. Of particular importance to Verizon is age as there is a dilemma currently with an aging work force and how the transition to retirement will be in our society. Called the “Baby Boomers” they are by far the largest section of our population with the most buying power, many of them are about to enter retirement age. Many of these baby boomers are going to start to wind down their portfolios they’ve built up over the course of their lives. Over the next 50 years this population will naturally fade out and their immense buying power will switch to the younger generations. Currently the buying power of generations, while different studies vary on exact numbers, annual spending roughly comes down to about $550 billion for baby boomers, $350 billion for Gen X, $320 billion for Millennials, and $160 billion for the silent generation. The youngest generation, Gen Z, has little to no buying power of their own, however, their parents buy much of what they want with over 93% of households say that they influence purchasing decisions. Gen Z buying power will increase substantially in the future as they enter adulthood. Younger generations have been becoming more acclimated with technology as it has become more readily available and introduced at a younger age. Younger people (under 25) tend to use social media much more than older generations, most of these social media apps can only be accessed through mobile devices. As we observe these younger generations using technology more and becoming more affluent in them, we can assume that these kids will be more accepting of smartphones and other technologies; possible making these devices “essential”.
By looking at Verizon’s customers we can predict where much of their revenue in the future will be coming from. Verizon’s customers, broken down by age, are as follows: 24.3% of customers in the 18-29 range, 26.1% in the 30-49 range, and 31.58% in the 50-64 range. Totaling our age groups, this accounts for about 82% of Verizon’s customers, the other 18% comes from the ages on the tail end of either side, so the under 18 or 65+ and the corporate customers who are unaffected by these aging demographic trends, there is not any percentage breakdown for these groups. As the 50-64 age group enters retirement they will want to stay in touch with relatives and try to keep busy, a phone is a good way to do this and it can be reasonably predicted that this age group will rise as the Baby Boomers enter retirement. Although this will most likely saturate the market completely and leave no more room for growth for Verizon in the U.S. market, aside from stealing customers from other providers. This effect will most likely be in the next 20-30 years, but at the 50-year time horizon this generation will have dwindled and the largest age of customers will shift to a younger age group.
“Younger people are getting phones”, says the CFO of Verizon at a Morgan Stanley investor meeting. At a younger age many kids are getting cell phones, this ingrains cellphones into kids’ heads and makes it an essential item. Under 18, the generation titled “Gen Z” (born after 1997) is now the largest population in the U.S. with over 90 million, larger than the millennial and Baby Boomer population. Who this generation chooses to have as their cellphone provider will likely depend on who their parents used, or other factors such as environmental sustainable governance ratings which seems to be a top factor within this age group. With this information we can assume that the under 18, and 18-29 age group will increase as young people get more phones due to an increase in population in this age group and the increasing likelihood that this group will obtain phones at a younger age.
The Pew Research Center conducted a study in February 2019, they found that 96% of people in the U.S. have smart phones and that ethnicities, genders, education, and age seem to have smartphones at about the same levels; in the 91%-100% range. There is likely little market share to be gained by looking at demographic's trends over time other than the extremes of age, as the under 18-year-old are at 92%, and over 65 at 91%.
Currently with the Covid-19 virus shutting down the economy it can be safely predicted that Verizon will have a reduced earnings report through either Verizon delaying payments customers need to make to the company or writing off losses. Although many people see phones as a form of entertainment and people are craving entertainment now more than ever. As for long lasting effects coming about from the change of Covid-19, there may be a few that affect Verizon that are yet to be known.
Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning
At the beginning of 2020 in the Telecommunications Industry there were 4 big players, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint. T-Mobile and Sprint have merged as of 4/1/2020 into the company name of T-Mobile. Outside of Verizon the only one bigger than it is AT&T which is diversified outside of telecommunications such as AT&T owning streaming service and entertainment subsidiary HBO, and DirectTV a cable provider. With the T-Mobile and Sprint merger they are still the smallest of the 3 companies, but they are able to compete effectively with Verizon and AT&T. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are the “900-pound gorillas” of the industry.
The industry business operation consists of a provider offering data (or internet connection), and cellphone services to customer on a mobile connection, such as phones. Most of the company’s customer base pays month to month for service, included sometimes in the cost of the service will be a phone or other accessories (such as mobile hotspots, TV plans, or in home internet) that the customer bought with it. However, this makes it easier for a customer switching between providers for the better service as there is no commitment on the customer side.
Verizon’s revenues shown in the table below illustrate stagnant growth in 2018 and rather lackluster growth the other years. Verizon attributes this growth to expanding into new segments and upgrading infrastructure, as well as spending nearly 35 billion on new 5g technology, which is claimed to be revolutionary when it comes out.
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Shown in the table below, Verizon has the lowest Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio of 12.46, with AT&T being slightly higher at 15.14. T-Mobile absorbing Sprint has created a very high P/E ratio of 22.59. We can also observe that not only does Verizon have a lower P/E ratio, but they also boast higher return on equity and profit margins compared to their competitors.
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Valuation
The discounted cash flow valuation methods used for Verizon consist of the dividend growth model, a free cash flow to firm (FCFF) model, a free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model, and a multiples analysis.
The cost of equity calculation is shown below, calculated to be at 7.62% using a 3% risk free rate and an expected market return of 9.6%. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) was calculated to be 5.4%, highlighting the extensive use of cheap debt, about 50% of their capital structure. Their average cost of debt on outstanding bonds was about 3.64%, much lower than what the required return on equity is, bringing cost of capital much lower.
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Dividend Growth Model – Constant Growth: Using a constant growth of dividends, and picking a growth rate of 3.5%, taking the average of the last 10 years we see an average increase of about 2.6%, and a 5.1% annual growth during the last 5-years. This will likely decline over an infinite time horizon, using historical data, as such an estimate of 3.5% is used to accurately reflect the economic environment. A 2.6% 10-year growth rate reflects the reality of coming out of the 07-09 financial crisis which does not reflect the current economic environment. This gives an intrinsic value of $60.79.
Dividend Growth Model – Two-Stage Growth Model: In the past Verizon has had periods of high dividend growth for a year or two. The last time this happened was briefly after the widespread release of 4g in 2013 and the subsequent increase in earnings growth. From the recent developments of the highly anticipated release of 5g technology, in the two-stage growth model a dividend growth rate of 5% is assumed to be the average for 6 years and then settle at a constant growth of 3.5% indefinitely. This gives an intrinsic value of $65.77 for the two-stage model.
Dividend Growth Model – Three-Stage Growth Model: As for the three-stage growth model an assumption of an average of 7% dividend growth over the next 2 years, as in the past Verizon has experienced up to 11% dividend growth after the release of this new technology. After this, Verizon will settle into an average 4% dividend growth for 4 years, after which point, a 3.5% constant growth. This gives an intrinsic value of $66.25 for the three-stage model.
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model: Verizon’s free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the cash flow available to all of the company’s capital providers, this includes bond holders, common shareholders, and occasionally preferred shareholders. Verizon’s actual FCFF is very volatile at first glance, fluctuating between -43% to positive 226%. Most of this volatility is from high amounts of investments of working capital into projects, as is the nature of the business. However, it seems that the cash flows are also very unstable due to Verizon’s taxes in 2017 with the huge tax cuts Verizon was able to get -$9956 (mils), FCFF was significantly affected. Substituting the 2017 tax number to a Verizon average tax payment of $5000 makes FCFF seem much more stable. Averaging out over the course of 5 years, an average of 8% growth in free cash flow to the firm is calculated. In the constant growth model, a growth rate of 3.5% is used. This is from an assumption that one day Verizon will wind down working capital and be able to achieve more stable cash flows. In the two-stage and three-stage models a slightly higher growth over the next 6 years because of the release in 5g technology significantly increasing the growth is used. The average growth rate for the two-stage model is estimated to be at 5% before settling back down to 1.5% growth rate. In the three-stage growth model an estimate of 8% free cash flow growth for 3 years, a 2.5% average for the next 5 years, and then settle back into 1.5% growth. This gives an intrinsic value for constant growth, two-stage, and three-stage models of $110.57, $146.38, and $153.58, respectively.
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model: Verizon’s free cash flow to equity (FCFE) holders represents all cash flow available to common equity holders after all operating expenses, bond payments, investments into both working, and fixed capital have been made. Over the last 5 years FCFE has grown on average at 4%, however, the per year change is also very volatile, much like FCFF. Three separate years had negative FCFE of around -70%, and our other two years had positive 1,393% and 307%. This is mostly due to paying down debt rapidly or taking out a lot of debt to fund new projects such as 5g rolling out, mainly the latter. Taking out net borrowing from the calculation creates a more stable model, as such net borrowing is taken out and a growth rate of 10.3% is calculated. As such FCFE growth rates are estimated to be slightly lower than the average because while taking out net borrowing shows more stable cash flows, repaying the debt will lower cash flow available to common stock. That said, in the constant growth model a growth rate of 4% is used. The two-stage model a growth rate of 7% for the next 6 years, then settling to 4% for terminal value. In the 3-stage model an estimate of a 10% return over the next 3 years and a 6% return for 5 years, before settling into the terminal growth rate of 4%. This gives an intrinsic value for the constant growth, two-stage, and three-stage models of $106.35, $124.20, and $135.29, respectively.

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Multiples Analysis: In this valuation approach a price/earnings (P/E) ratio and enterprise value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratios are used. Through the P/E approach, Verizon currently has a P/E fluctuating between 12-13 and historically they have had P/E’s up to 20 in the last 5 years. Their competitors AT&T and T-Mobile have P/E ratios roughly around 15 and 20 respectively, and the industry standard is P/E is 15. Verizon has an earnings per share of $4.43; however, with 5g technology becoming widely available, a modest earnings growth to $4.90 per share (a 10.6% increase) is estimated for next year. This calculation leads us to an intrinsic value of $73.50. As for the EV/EBITDA approach, Verizon’s current EBITDA is $47,152 and with a ratio of 8.2. With an estimated EBITDA value of $49,500 and a target ratio of 9, this calculation gives us a value of $76.08 one year from now.
Valuation Summary: Verizon is a company with stable cashflows and without much room for significant growth. This makes Verizon perfect for a dividend growth model valuation and is the most accurate of the three models. FCFF is confusing and hard to estimate because of the massive tax changes year to year. FCFE is misleading as the huge amounts of borrowing throws off calculations as net borrowing is not typically used as funds available to shareholders, as such net borrowing has been taken out of the analysis. A growth rate reduction of 2-3% is used for FCFE to account for the reduced cash flow available to common shareholders resulting from paying off the debt in the future. The multiples analysis shows that Verizon may be undervalued currently with a P/E ratio hovering around 12, significantly lower than the industry average and peers. In all the dividend models are most accurate as investors in this company value the stable cash flows and dividends. To arrive to the final intrinsic value estimate, a blend of the three dividend growth models is used, with a 30% weighting on the constant and three-stage growth models and a 40% weighting on the two-stage model. This weighting provides a final intrinsic value of $64.42.
Financial Analysis
Liquidity – As of March 31st, the most up to date financial statements available. Verizon’s liquidity is poor, Cash as a percent of total assets is only 2.3%, although slightly higher than the last 5 years of around 0.9%, this influx of cash is most likely a response to the Covid-19 epidemic. The cash came from 7.5 billion of new debt, all of which expires before 2020. Doing a Current Ratio, and Quick Ratio for Verizon (Current Assets / Current Liabilities and Current Assets – Inventory / Current Liabilities respectively). This calculation provides poor numbers, with the current ratio being at .991, and the quick ratio being at .952. This shows that Verizon has way more in liabilities than assets, and if they needed to sell off assets quickly and liquidate the company, in case of a bankruptcy, they would not have enough to meet their obligations. Although due to the nature of the business this is extremely unlikely and as discussed below the debt is manageable. This is further reinforced via the Net debt to EBITDA ratio, a common way at to measure if the amount of income generated is available to pay down its current debt. Any number higher than 4 or 5 typically raises concerns, however, Verizon is well below that number as of now and shows adequate debt management.
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Profitability Ratios – Verizon has a profit margin of 14.6% in 2019, effectively doubling their 2014 profit margin of 7.6% shown in the table below. Return on Invest Capital is also very high number at about 46% and Return on Equity slightly lower at 31%; however, these ratios have fallen the past 6 years from 114% and 78% respectively. This dramatic decrease is attributed to the payoff of massive investments into 4g technology in 2014, and now we have much lower percentages due to massive investment increases into 5g spending. These ratios will most likely return to much higher numbers over the next 2-3 years.
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*Equity Multiplier* refers to Assets / Shareholder Equity-1 and Sustainable Growth Rate g* uses Equity Multiplier* instead of Equity Multiplier, Equity Multiplier uses Assets / Shareholder Equity of the same period.
Debt - Verizon is levered at about 2 currently, although they have reduced that from 9.2 in 2014. This means that Verizon has double the amount of debt than they do equity. Their debt ratio is at .79 currently, although that has dropped substantially from .95 in 2014. Debt ratio illustrates what portion of the company’s assets is owed to creditors. Currently most of this debt is used for various infrastructure costs for 5g, as well as introducing a new “Green Bond” for environmental social governance, the first in the telecom industry. Using market values rather than book values, Verizon has a capital structure of 53% equity and 47% debt. The times interest earned ratio is currently at 6.44, meaning they currently make more than enough in operating income to pay for interest, so they are not currently at risk of defaulting. As well as their times burden covered for 2020 at 5.28, allowing Verizon to be rated as investment grade bonds.
https://preview.redd.it/sx243mqb8c551.png?width=425&format=png&auto=webp&s=52c304559d11207967a4af28fefe61a75f1827ec
Asset Management Ratios – Shown above in the second table, asset turnover is at about 45.2% currently, although this number is misleading as they sell a service and accumulate assets over time without having to sell them to customers. Shown in the table below is collection period, inventory turnover and payables period, with collection period and payables period having risen between 2014 and 2019 from 40.19 to 70.39 and 40.92 to 51.52, respectively. This shows that Verizon has been extending receivables at a faster rate than payables, ideally, Verizon would like to see that reversed. Supplier terms are currently unknown for Verizon, however, payables period being under 60 days, they are still getting favorable terms. Inventory turnover has decreased slightly from 43 to 38 since 2014, which is promising and shows more inventory going out the door.
https://preview.redd.it/4r23e4uc8c551.png?width=511&format=png&auto=webp&s=544c39a03ca456f837b97f1ad1593040c738c321
As for industry averages, it is shown that Verizon has a much higher quick ratio and a lower times interest earned (TIE). The leverage ratio, and debt to equity ratio is about the same as the industry average. In some ways Verizon company is close to industry averages with the exception of being slightly more levered currently.

Investment Risks
Debt Levels and Credit Rating: Verizon currently has debt levels equal to about its market capitalization, meaning the company nearly has just as much debt as it does equity outstanding. These high levels of debt represent significant risks via Verizon’s obligations. A single quarter of abrupt cash flow disruption could force Verizon into default on much of its outstanding debt. The high debt levels Verizon currently deals with could potentially lower their credit rating with the credit rating agencies. This would be detrimental to Verizon as it would affect their ability to introduce new debt at low rates, and hurt Verizon’s profitability.
Geographic: Currently Verizon mainly operates in North America. This provides significant systematic risk on the part of Verizon. Terrorist attacks, regulation change, or any other factor that could negatively affect the North American region is a significant risk to Verizon.
5g: Any delay in the release of the 5g network could significantly hurt Verizon’s business. This technology is new and is creating rapid change within the industry that Verizon must be a part of moving forward or risk losing customers to a competitor. Introducing new technology also means that they must phase out old, unprofitable technology on a cost-effective basis or else Verizon is at risk or having reduced profitability.
Competition: With the recent merger of T-Mobile and Sprint into T-Mobile there is a much more competitive landscape for Verizon. Before the merger, the only real competitor in size was AT&T, now with the merger Verizon has two competitors of similar size. The merger is particularly dangerous to Verizon as the company is not diversified outside of the industry like AT&T, and a new significant entrant into the industry could pose a huge threat as T-Mobile will be able compete with Verizon on a more cost-effective basis than previously.
Sensitivity Analysis: The two biggest factors affecting Verizon’s stock price are identified as the change in the cost of equity, and the change in the dividend rate. This is because in the dividend discount model the future dividends are discounted by the cost of equity and the annual dividend rate shows how the stock price will change given all else is equal. Shown below are the changes in the cost of equity and dividend rate plus or minus 2% and 1% and how it effects the stock price. For the cost of equity calculation, it is important to realize that rising interest rates, changing expected return in the market, or a change in the volatility (beta) of the stock could affect our cost of equity, and in turn, our intrinsic value. As for the change in dividend growth rate, will easily affect a change in our intrinsic value calculation by changing the projected future cashflows. Below in table 1 illustrates both possibilities and the potential impact on the calculated intrinsic value. The most probable of these two is a change in the cost of equity as the economy is currently in an extremely low interest rate environment, and the cost of equity calculation assumes a 3% interest rate. Changing the rate to the market risk free rate could substantially raise intrinsic value; however, our 3% assumed risk free rate more accurately reflect what investors expect, and not the artificially pushed down price shown in the market right now.
Table1

https://preview.redd.it/r1ditggf8c551.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=b808e9b709a1a88ceb54aa19bf444405a880a984
Appendix
Financial Calculations
https://preview.redd.it/zvxnf0om8c551.png?width=2200&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b47a20da3ccc7ca24d6e67675cc52aacf214e1

https://preview.redd.it/pv2xr9sp8c551.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=77d56631f373eba3694d5faf825603b68584098d


Income Statement
https://preview.redd.it/yvgzjq7t8c551.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b81afacac130023b3330373d09541d0919415dc
Income Statement Proforma
https://preview.redd.it/7yqpug2u8c551.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=382147a66441814f3e9f8b3b8b340969b5781b3e
Balance Sheet
https://preview.redd.it/gjlerbsu8c551.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a661d4817c1dc3fa1a01a37f0f4edec8467c93e
Balance Sheet Proforma
https://preview.redd.it/kg894tvv8c551.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=09f62e46f6d1962ea6ac7a7fe838f81600ea7dad
Cost of Equity
Calculating the cost of equity by using a risk-free rate of 3% as current U.S. 10 year bond rates are at all time lows and has a possibility to not accurately reflect the actual cost of business within the U.S. for Verizon. Using an expected return on the market of 9.6%, which is the average annual return in the stock market going back to 1928. Finally, using an adjusted beta of .7. The cost of equity is calculated to be 7.62%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
https://preview.redd.it/muvvv6yy8c551.png?width=423&format=png&auto=webp&s=da894b6b772e237884412105680fed7112ccd45a
Finding the market value of long-term debt by taking 43 long term bonds Verizon currently has outstanding and took the current price each bond trades at. Using this information, the market value of long-term debt from these bonds was found but does not reflect *all* debt. Taking the average price each was selling at, weighted by amount outstanding, multiplied this average by the book value of debt to comes to MV of LTD of $129,747.73 billion.
https://preview.redd.it/uvu33x709c551.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5e6a11260876b172978c42fea8a4241abee8d12
To find the pretax cost of debt by taking the yield on each bond weighted by percent of total debt, summing this up a cost of debt to Verizon of 2.69% was calculated.
To find the weighted average cost of capital follow the above formula. Spelled out is: weight of equity x cost of equity + weight of debt x cost of debt x 1- tax rate. The calculated weighted average cost of capital to be 4.7%. This accurately reflects the cheap use of debt Verizon takes advantage of as the cost of equity is significantly higher at 7.62%. This is how Verizon should be funding its operations as this substantially lowers their cost of capital and they can sustain this sizable amount of debt through the stable cash flows as is the nature of their business.
submitted by Valincity to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]


2019.11.06 21:42 WastedFrog Frog's mid-season review

Well nobody saw this coming. The 49ers are 8-0 and the last remaining undefeated team this season. The defense is a million miles ahead of where it was this time last year and Jimmy G has done his best to assuage the anxiety that built up in his absence since his ACL injury. Saleh went from "Does he need to be replaced?" to "Can we easily replace him when he leaves for a HC job?" in the blink of an eye and Kyle Shanahan is on the short list for COY.
I'm going to give my mid season report cards on the entire roster, highlight positions of need, look through the pending free agents, identify potential cap cuts and try to determine a priority list for extensions.
In this section I'm going to go through our first 8 games and give a small recap. I'll also hand out a game ball for each W.
8-0
Week 1: @ Tampa Bay W 31-17
This was an ugly game for the offense. Jimmy got baited for a pick 6 early on. The run game never really got going. They ended up with 98 total yards rushing on 32 attempts. Given what we know now about how great Tampa's run D is, it's a little less painful than it was at the time. The team had 11 penalties. The high for this season so far.
The defense kicked ass. Two pick 6s, one from each outside CB and a 3rd INT to beat their team total from last year in 1 game.
Game Ball: Ahkello Witherspoon. 1 INT, 1 TD, 3 passes defended
Week 2: @ Cincinnati W 41-17
That score is seriously lopsided and does not get across just how lopsided this game was. The last time the 49ers had beat a team down this badly was in 2012 when they put up over 300 yards rushing and 300 yards passing vs the Bills. If not for a garbage time TD against mostly backups where a 49er fell over the score would look more like the game.
Both the offense and defense played a damn near perfect game. Not much else to say about this one.
Game Ball: Kwon Alexander 1 INT, 6 tackles, 3 passes defended
Week 3: Vs Pittsburgh W 24-20
This was not a perfect game. Not even close. However this is the game that convinced be about the 2019 49ers. It is extremely difficult to win a game where you give the ball up 5 times. Even if it's a top team taking on a bottom feeder. The defense was exceptional in this game. Except for two big plays for TDs. One on a bad Jason Verrett coverage, The Steelers did not manage to complete any passes more than 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage. In 27 passing attempts. On offense Jimmy G had his best game as a 49er to date, even if his statline didn't show it. His two INT were both on tip balls that should have been caught. He came up clutch and got the 49ers in position to score every time he needed to.
Game Ball: Jimmy Garoppolo 277 yards, 1TD
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: Vs Cleveland W 31-3
Another beatdown of a game. The Browns had nothing. Their offense, especially the OL, couldn't handle the 49ers defense. Nick Bosa had his coming out game. Literally planting his flag on Monday Night Football. The CBs Sherman and Moseley pretty much erased Landry and OBJ from the game. Baker Mayfield would have had a better passer rating if he threw the ball away on every play. Matt Breida set the tone by scoring an 83 yard TD on the first offensive snap of the game.
Game Ball: Nick Bosa 2 sacks (3 really but one was mistakenly called an incomplete pass), 1 flag plant.
Week 6 @ Los Angeles Rams W 20-7
The Rams drove right down the field with ease and scored a TD on their opening drive. Ran all over the 49ers defense. That was the last noteworthy thing they would do all game. The Defense absolutely mauled the Rams after that. Of their 11 drives 5 went for negative yardage. They were 0-9 on 3rd down and 0-4 on 4th.
Game Ball: Robert Saleh
Week 7 @ Washington W 9-0
Boy was this game ugly. I look forward to forgetting it ever happened.
Game Ball: Robbie Gould for somehow hitting 3/4 FGs in that mess
Week 8 Vs Carolina W 51-13
Kyle Shanahan really showed off his play calling ability on this one. A masterpiece from start to finish. His entire plan was to get around Luke Keuchly and he did it perfectly. Still gave up an INT to him because Keuchly is just a freak. Tevin Coleman in particular had a great day on offense, scoring 4 TDs. The Defense managed to hand Kyle Allen the first 3 interceptions of his career. They did a great job shutting down Christian McCaffrey. Still gave up a long TD to him because McCaffrey is just a freak.
Game Ball: George Kittle. Sorry TeCo. It was national TE day.
Week 9 @ Arizona W 28-25
Jimmy Garoppolo's best game of his career came on prime time last Thursday. Spectacularly clutch on 3rd downs especially. Converted multiple 3rd and longs. Newly acquired WR Emmanuel Sanders had a breakout game. Scoring a TD and putting up over 100 yards receiving. The Defense on the other hand struggled. A Lot. Kyler Murray is a little squirrel, according to DeForest Buckner, and this was the problem. He was able to keep plays going and make plays with his feet, which left the defense a bit exposed. Was this just Thursday night fatigue or something more concerning? we'll find out with the Niners playing Russel Wilson this week and Kyler again the week after.
Game Ball: Emmanuel Sanders, but only because I already gave Jimmy one.
The Roster
Quarterbacks
  • Jimmy Garoppolo: B+
  • Nick Mullens: N/A
  • CJ Beathard: N/A
Jimmy G has had his share of questionable throws this year, hence only getting a B grade from me. He has also proven he's a starting and, most importantly, winning QB in the NFL. He's one of the only QB's I've ever seen who is better on 3rd down with pressure in his face than with a clean pocket on 1st down. That gets me excited for the future. Great QBs all have that little spark of football magic to them. They get it done when it counts most. Jimmy has that. He isn't there yet. He has barely started a seasons worth of games after all.
Not much to note about the backups. Beathard has been inactive all year showing a clear preference for Mullens, but thats about it. Contracts don't really play into any decisions here either. Mullens can be kept incredibly easily as an exclusive rights free agent. Beathard's cap hit is pretty minimal. My best guess is they are both still here in camp next year.
The team may opt to re-work Jimmy G's deal. Convert some to signing bonus to free up money short term for other extensions. Jimmy has very little dead money left on his deal and I'm sure the team isn't hesitant to commit further to him at this point.
Offensive Line
  • LT Joe Staley: B
  • LG Laken Tomlinson: B
  • C Weston Richburg: B
  • RG Mike Person: B-
  • RT Mike McGlinchey: C
  • OT Justin Skule: C
  • OL Daniel Brunskill: B
  • OL Ben Garland: N/A
  • OT: Shon Coleman: N/A (IR)
It looks right now like the 49ers will go into 2020 with the same starting OL as the previous two seasons. Staley and McGlinchey's injuries were unfortunate, but thankfully neither will be out much longer. Both slated to return as early as Monday night vs the Seahawks. McGlinchey wasn't having a great season before his injury, but he's still young. Staley was Staley. The backup tackles stepped up big. Losing both of your starting OTs is a death sentence in the NFL. Yet the 49ers are undefeated. Skule and Brunskill have played at a level far beyond their status as the teams 4th and 5th tackles. Skule has started to struggle a bit in the last couple weeks. Though to be fair to him nobody can really stop Chandler Jones. Brunskill on the other hand keeps getting better. Brunskill may have even played well enough to have another team considering him for a starting role. He is an exclusive rights FA so his fate is entirely up to the 49ers. Potential trade candidate? Shon Coleman is a free agent and the team likely wont be interested.
Weston Richburg has been every bit the player they paid big for last season. You can really see how much his injury was holding him back. Laken Tomlinson and Mike Person have been as good as you can ask for a starting G duo. Ben Garland hasn't played, but seems to be a capable backup IOL.
Running Backs
  • Matt Breida: B
  • Tevin Coleman: B
  • Raheem Mostert: C
  • Jeff Wilson Jr: C
  • Jerick McKinnon: N/A
Under contract through: 2021
2020 Cap hit: 8.5m
Dead Money: 4m
Tevin Coleman has proven a smart pickup by Shanahan. With McKinnon having to miss the season again, signing TeCo has come up big. He is guaranteed to be one of the 49ers top two backs next season. The rest is more questionable. The 49ers will definitely tender restricted FA Matt Breida, but other teams will have a shot at him. The upside of this is that the 49ers can put a 2nd round tender on him. If someone offers him more, and the 49ers choose not to match it, they would get a 2nd round pick in compensation. Most likely this means Breida will be back with the 49ers next year. Mostert isn't going anywhere. Too valuable both on ST and in the run game. Needs to work on his ball security. Wilson has been a good goal line back but hasn't looked great in the middle of the field.
McKinnon is as good as gone. There aren't a lot of places to create cap space for this team right now, so a high paid player who hasn't seen the field is pretty obvious. The only way I see him sticking around is if the 49ers do lose Breida and he agrees to a restructured deal that limits the risk to the team.
Overall this group has been fantastic. Breida and Coleman are an excellent duo. Both well rounded backs who don't need to be rotated out mid drive. Mostert and Wilson offer the extremes. Mostert is on the speed and explosiveness end. Wilson on the other end with power and balance. As a group they function exceptionally well.
Tight End and Fullback
  • George Kittle: A+
  • Kyle Juszczyk: A
  • Ross Dwelley: C+
  • Levine Toilolo: C
  • Garrett Celek: N/A (PUP)
Kittle is still the best TE in the NFL. No surprises there. He should be on the short list for a new deal. Kyle Juszczyk is going to need a new contract as well. Toilolo and Celek are both FA next year. Celek is likely done with the 49ers at least. Toilolo could easily stick around next year or be replaced. Dwelley has played pretty well as Juszczyk's backup. He's consistently getting better at playing FB. Should be a no-brainer to keep him around next year as an ERFA.
Wide Receiver
  • Emanuel Sanders: A (very small sample size)
  • Dante Pettis: C-
  • Marquise Goodwin: C
Under contract through: 2021
2020 Cap hit: 5.12m
Dead Money: 1.25m
  • Deebo Samuel C+
  • Kendrick Bourne: C
  • Richie James: D
  • Trent Taylor: N/A (IR)
  • Jalen Hurd: N/A (IR)
Emmanuel Sanders is either going to sign for a couple years with the 49ers or hit FA and get the 49ers a 2021 3rd round comp pick. My guess is they sign him to a 2 year deal almost immediately after the season ends. Deebo and Pettis have both had their moments, but neither has really stepped up as a starter. Deebo does seem to be getting closer though. Marquise Goodwin is probably going to end up a cut after the season. His release would save quite a bit over the next 2 years. He may have eyes on the 2020 Olympics anyway. Bourne is similarly inconsistent as the rest of the unit. James has been ok as a PR this year and hasn't really done much on offense. The fact that he hasn't carved out a bigger role for himself with how much the WRs have been struggling is telling.
Jalen Hurd is a big question mark. We have no idea what he is still and likely won't find out until next year. Trent Taylor has a chance to return this season, but we'll see. What the team has in these two will dictate what else happens in the receiver room this coming off-season.
This group has been pretty disappointing. Like every other year, WR is looking like a major need position for the 49ers. This position group is among the worst performing on the team.
Defensive Line
  • DeForest Buckner: B-
  • Arik Armstead: A
  • Dee Ford: A-
  • Nick Bosa: A+
  • DJ Jones: B
  • Ronald Blair: B
  • Solomon Thomas: C
Under contract through: 2020+ 5th year option
2020 Cap hit: 8.9m
Dead Money: 8.9m
  • Sheldon Day: C
  • Julian Taylor: C-
  • Kentavius Street: N/A (IR)
Nobody has a better starting DL. That is why it's about to get really expensive. Arik Armstead is a FA after the season. So is depth DE Ronald Blair. Those are two guys they really don't want to lose. Sure they'd get some comp picks back but that isn't good enough. Ideally they should be looking to re-sign Armstead ASAP. Buckner is the other big contract coming up. The team has a little longer with him. He hits FA after next season and there is a franchise tag to give them more time if they need it. Bosa is at the start of his rookie deal, Ford has already been paid. Buckner and Armstead both need to be paid. We'll see if Armstead has played his way into that being impossible for the 49ers.
Solomon Thomas has been a disappointment. He has improved over last year but not enough. The team HAS to trade him this off-season if they want any chance of keeping guys like Armstead. If they trade him they get about 4m in cap space back. If they don't they owe him all 9m and can't get out of it.
Jones and Taylor should be back next year. Day is a free agent and I can't see him being a priority. Depends how expensive he gets. Street has spent the year on IR, but is a candidate to return. the team has had no serious injuries to the DL group so it's hard to imagine him being activated, though the team may prefer to have him active over someone like Julian Taylor. They need to know what they have in Street before they can make a decision on someone like Ronald Blair.
This group has over performed expectations which is almost unbelievable. Nick Bosa might be the best DE in the NFL right now. Armstead is the best run defender on the edge. Buckner is almost constantly double teamed, making things way easier for everyone else. Dee Ford, despite being used less than the others, has made a huge impact.
Linebackers
  • Fred Warner: B-
  • Kwon Alexander: A (IR)
  • Dre Greenlaw: B-
  • Azeez Al Shaair: B-
  • Mark Nzeocha: C
  • Elijah Lee: N/A
Warner hasn't been perfect this year, but he's held his own. Kwon Alexander was playing very well before being lost to IR. Greenlaw and Al Shaair haven't been asked to do much but haven't disappointed either. My grades for them are probably a bit generous but they haven't shown much good or bad. For a depth LB that's a b-. In their new more prominent roles? We'll see. Nzeocha is pretty much special teams only at this point. Elijah Lee went from starting last season, to the practice squad, and now back on the roster. He should stay inactive unless someone else struggles or gets injured.
The Linebackers have played well, but aren't the strength of our defense. A lot of the struggles in run D this season have been on the linebackers. Going from Kwon to Greenlaw at WLB sacrifices speed for some strength, which may help clear up some of the gap between their ability. The LBs need to play stronger.
Cornerbacks
  • Richard Sherman: A
  • Ahkello Witherspoon: A
  • Emmanuel Moseley: B-
  • K'Wuan Williams: B
  • DJ Reed: N/A
  • Dontae Johnson: N/A
  • Jason Verrett: F
Sherman looks more like his old self than he did last year. Witherspoon looked nothing like his old self at the start of the season. He outplayed all expectations. Moseley started out strong in relief but has struggled a bit these past couple games. He gave up a TD to Andy Isabella with an awful attempt to undercut a route. Hopefully he learns from that one. K'wuan has had moments of elite play and some not so great moments, but he's been mostly good. DJ Reed has played ok as his backup but to be honest I didn't want to go hunt out his plays and grade them right now. Johnson hasn't had to do anything really. Verrett was a failed experiment. Got burnt hard twice in a row and hit IR again. Oh well.
I don't think there are any big change ups coming in this group. I suppose you could make the argument for moving on from Sherman who is gonna be owed 10m next year. The good play from Witherspoon and Moseley may have made him slightly expendable. Personally I think he's worth the money, but it depends how you're viewing the roster. If it's a question of the gap between Sherman and his backup vs the gap between Armstead and his backup, you may see the need to clear the cap room.
Safeties
  • Jimmie Ward: B
  • Jaquiski Tartt: B-
  • Tarvarius Moore: C+
  • Marcell Harris: C-
If you told me after the end of last season that the 49ers would re-sign Ward, Make no significant additions to the position group and end up with a top end pass defense I'd have told you to switch to softer drugs. But here we are. Ward has been very good this season. He was hurt to start the year, what else is new, but since returning has been outstanding. Tartt is playing pretty well too. He's always been a solid safety. Moore looked decent in relief of Ward to start the season, but clearly had some struggles too. Most of Harris' work has been on special teams, where he has shown up a few times. Solid backup option. Not sure why the team went with Exum early on instead of Harris.
I still think this is one of the weaker positions groups on the team. Tartt is a solid starter but he is upgrade-able. Ward was only signed to a 1 year deal, so now the team has to decide whether to commit long term or try to replace him. I'd go with the latter. The availability just hasn't been good enough. I view Moore as a long term backup FS with the potential to eventually start.
Special Teams
  • K Robbie Gould: C-
  • P Mitch Wishnowsky: B
  • LS Kyle Nelson: N/A yet
The 49ers have struggled in several areas on special teams this year. Long snapper was a huge problem in the first half of the season. Nelson was suspended for the first 6 games. They started out with Colin Holba, who replaced Nelson late last season when his suspension started, and he was ok. For some reason they thought they needed to replace him, which led to one game for 38 year old Jon Condo, who was terrible. They then moved on to Garrison Sandborn for a few games and he too struggled. Nelson has been back for a week, but has already had some errant snaps. Hopefully sticking with Nelson long term will correct that.
Robbie Gould has missed a bunch of kicks this year. However it's not as bad as it seems. of his 7 misses, one was from 55 (I don't really expect Gould to hit those), one was in a monsoon, one was a bad snap, and one was blocked. Still, 3 bad misses with no excuse isn't great and ideally you want him to hit the long ones too. Gould is still a good kicker and I'm glad the team hasn't started the process of looking for another. He can still save his season.
Wishowsky hasn't been stellar, but to me at least he has proven he was worth drafting. His hang time paired with an elite gunner tandem of Mostert and Moore has been impossible for punt returners. Before AZ managed a 9 yard punt return last week, the rookie had given up exactly 2 punt return yards all season. That is a bonkers unsustainable stat. He's done pretty well pinning opponents inside the 20. A couple very unlucky bounces have made his stat line look more mediocre than he has been. One thing he really needs to work on is holding for kicks. He messed up an extra point try against the Cardinals and has struggled to get some of the slightly inaccurate snaps down in time. He had never been asked to hold before though, so I'm confident he'll get better.
Coaching
Staff Changes
  • DBs coach Jeff Hafley replaced by Joe Woods
  • DL coach Jeff Zgonina replaced by Kris Kocurek
  • Hired Wes Welker as WR coach
  • Hired Shane Day as QB coach
  • Re-built the entire Medical and Strength and conditioning staffs.
Three of these moves really stand out. Kocurek, Woods and conditioning.
The 49ers injury problems over the last few seasons had really gotten out of hand. To my eyes there was way too much of a "play through it" or "get back in there" attitude that did a lot of harm. Arik Armstead played 2 seasons with a torn labrum in his shoulder instead of just dealing with it. Matt Breida was rushed back without properly healing his ankle repeatedly last year. In a 4 win season. There is no need for that. Since making the change to a new staff the 49ers have incurred a similar amount of injuries, but the attitude has been to take their time and get guys to 100%. More rest days for guys like Dee Ford instead of just telling him to tough it out through practice. The result has been guys coming back on schedule and not one instance of a repeated injury through half a season.
Joe Woods might have been the 49ers best hire this offseason. Hafley had to go. He spent 3 years as the 49ers DB coach. During that time not a single DB on the roster had two good years in a row. Not one. His ability to develop players was suspect at best. He took another job at Ohio State, but I'm fairly sure he'd have been fired had he not chosen to move on. Woods is a damn good DB coach. He's been doing it a long time and has had results everywhere he has gone. The difference between the secondary this year and last year, despite it mostly being the same players, is shocking. I fear I may have put too much of the blame on Saleh last year when it seems Hafley deserved it.
Kocurek, whose name I still struggle to spell no matter how many times I type it, has also been an excellent addition. His presence has helped the team move away from the Seattle style 4-3 undecover 3 defense. They play a lot more wide nine now, which fits the personnel a lot better since the team added two elite DEs. I think the additions of Bosa and Ford have more to do with the jump in performance of the DL than Kocurek does, but his additions are visible as well. Arik Armstead's big leap forward isn't just because it's a contract year or the talent around him. You can line him up with guys we had last year next to him and he is still much better. Some credit must go to his coach. Every player on that DL is playing above average at the least and truly elite at best. That doesn't happen without competent DL coaching.
Shanahan and Saleh
What can I possibly say about the performances from these two this year? I'll start with an apology. I had previously said that I didn't think Saleh was a good enough coach to ever field a top 5 defense even with a better roster. I'm sorry I doubted you Saleh. He went and put up a top 5 all time defense in the first half of the season. Big oof from me on that one. He has gone from being someone many fans wanted replaced to someone that we have no idea how to replace when he takes his place as a HC.
Shanahan has decided to use this season to cement his status as the best playcaller in the NFL. I guarantee you all the offensive minds in the NFL watch their next opponent and then turn on the Niners game to see what they can steal from Shanahan. He has gone from "well some guys are just coordinators and don't work as HCs" to a favorite for coach of the year. He WILL win the 49ers a super bowl. I have no doubts about that.
Potential hits to the staff
The unfortunate thing about being a good team is having to replace your coaches when they get pilfered. Shanahan has tried to combat this by making up as many coaching positions he can and filling them with the brightest minds he can find. For example we have a "pass rush specialist" just so we have somewhere to put Chris Kiffin.
  • DC Robert Saleh
He is going to get HC interviews next cycle. In fact given he's a hot candidate and satisfies the Rooney rule he might lead the league in interviews. Whether he lands a gig is up in the air. He has only had one good year so far after all. However the 49ers need to be prepared for this eventuality. If his defenses keep producing he will be hired as a HC. As far as an in house replacement I'm not sure what they'd do. Kocurek, DeMeco Ryans and Joe Woods would be the obvious choices. I'd prefer to leave Kocurek and Woods where they are. They're more helpful working hands on with their groups. Ryans is still very young as a coach, but seems to be on that HC track that could mean an early DC job. I would consider someone like Chris Kiffin, with the rest of the staff staying the same. He is very much an Xs and Os mind who would do well play calling and moving him from his current job wouldn't hurt the team.
  • Potential OCs Mike McDaniel, Mike LaFleur, and Shane Day
Shanahan's offense is among the most sought after in the NFL and his assistants are going to be pilfered fairly regularly. Last year they lost QB coach Scangarello to the Broncos. Luckily all the other interview requests were lateral moves without play calling duties so the 49ers had no trouble blocking them because they weren't really advancements.
McDaniel seems most likely to get an OC job this year. The man with the title "run game coordinator" in this offense is gonna get some serious looks. LaFleur was almost lured away by his brother in Green Bay last year. Day is the least likely, but anyone connected to Shanahan is going to be interviewed. At this point I'm expecting to lose McDaniel and maybe LaFleur.
Upcoming roster decisions
It's a bit early for this stuff, but I like writing about it. There are some big decisions to be made after this season and now that we have a better idea about some of the players on the roster we can look at how we expect the off-season to go. I'm going to make a couple assumptions. The 49ers are not going to be buyers in free agency and that the goal is going to be to keep this team as intact as they can. It's an undefeated team after all. I don't think they want big changes.
Upcoming free agents
I'll start with the key players
  • DL Arik Armstead
  • WR Emmanuel Sanders
  • FS Jimmie Ward
  • DT Sheldon Day
  • DL Ronald Blair
Minor players
  • CB Jason Verrett
  • OT Sam Young
  • TE Garrett Celek
  • OT Shon Coleman
  • TE Levine Toilolo
  • CB Dontae Johnson
  • IOL Ben Garland
Restricted and Exclusive rights free agents
  • RB Matt Breida (RFA)
  • LB Elijah Lee (RFA)
  • WR Kendrick Bourne (RFA)
  • CB Emmanuel Moseley (ERFA)
  • QB Nick Mullens (ERFA)
  • TE Ross Dwelley (ERFA)
  • RB Jeff Wilson (ERFA)
  • G Daniel Brunskill (ERFA)
  • OT Andrew Lauderdale (ERFA)
Let's start with the last group. Nearly all of these players will be kept. ERFA contracts are pretty simple. You always tender them unless you have no intention of the player even being there for camp. They're cheap contracts. Moseley, Mullens, Dwelley, Wilson and Brunskill are no-brainers. The RFAs will likely also be kept. These can be as cheap or as expensive as you want to make them, or someone else makes them for you. Breida should get a good payday out of his tender. Bourne and Lee will probably get original round tenders, and not be very expensive.
The middle group are mostly players who won't be returning. Jason Verrett is done. Sam Young and Shon Coleman are made irrelevant by Skule and Brunskill. Dontae Johnson might not make it through the season. Toilolo or Celek could be kept, but given Celek's back problems I'm not sure they'd commit to him. Toilolo is more likely, but the team has to have something to target in the draft and backup TE seems like a good spot. It's not like it's hard to find a blocking TE last minute if they need to. Garland is a decent backup OL. they could keep him or fill his spot with a rookie. Either way would be fine.
The first group is a difficult conversation. Realistically you can't keep all of these guys. Good players like Sheldon Day may find themselves hitting the market simply because they are a luxury the team can't afford. Arik Armstead is clearly the best player on this list, but does the team think they can get along without him? he's an expense that can make the math hard to work out. Bosa, Jones, Buckner and Ford is still a better DL than most teams have after all. The Franchise tag for a year is a possibility, but the DE tag is huge and it would probably be cheaper to sign him long term. Very tough choice. Sanders depends entirely on how well he plays the rest of this year and how much they think he has left in the tank. Do they take the comp pick they'd get from letting him walk or do they risk giving good money to an aging WR? Ronald Blair may also be a casualty of cap space. If they do re-sign Armstead he's as good as gone. Players like Shaq Barrett breaking out on new teams might have the league willing to pay more for someone good but not great like Blair. Jimmie Ward is another tough one. The team clearly love him and his play has proven them right, but the time lost to injury can't be ignored. The upside with this one is he's probably not very valuable because of that injury history and might be a little easier to keep because of it.
Players who need new deals
  • DT DeForest Buckner
  • TE George Kittle
  • FB Kyle Juszczyk
All three of these players contracts will run out after 2020. All three need to be kept. Juszczyk is probably the easiest of these to accomplish. His current salary is still miles ahead of what other FB make so they can just keep paying him the same money most likely.
The other two are more problematic. DeFo is going to get somewhere nearing 20m a year. The current top TE contracts are around the 11m per year mark so Kittle will be somewhere in the 12-13m range. as of right now the 49ers cap space in 2020 is expected to be around 17-18m. This means some of these guys may need to wait a bit to get new deals. Especially if the team keeps Armstead. Kittle or Juice may end up playing out 2020 and then playing 2021 under the franchise tag. Extending these guys is doable, but not easy. The team will definitely have to clear some cap space to keep this core team around. So....
Potential Cap Cuts
  • RB Jerrick McKinnon
    Cap Savings: 4.5m
  • WR Marquise Goodwin
Cap Savings: 3.875m
  • RB Tevin Coleman
Cap Savings: 4.9m
  • CB Richard Sherman
Cap Savings: 9m
  • SS Jaquiski Tartt
Cap Savings: 4.9m
  • DL Solomon Thomas
Cap Savings: 4.3m (only if traded)
I think the first two on this list are pretty much guaranteed. Jet never worked out here and Goodwin hasn't been good enough to ignore the savings of cutting him. The team HAS to trade Thomas. They need that money more than they need him and if they cut him they get nothing. They may end up even having to lose on the trade value just to ship out his cap space.
Tartt, Coleman and Sherman are not likely, but can't be ignored either. All three are possible extensions that push money into the future. However the idea can't be dismissed outright. There are multiple good CB on the roster behind Sherman and 9m is nearly enough to extend Kittle alone. It is enough to re-sign Sanders. Same goes for Coleman. The price tag on him isn't bad at all, but in this scheme and with the other depth on the roster is it necessary? Tartt is more of a long shot than the others, but the Safety group is one of the more likely to be tinkered with this off season so they may choose to get cheaper there with a rookie.
Prioritizing extensions
This is the difficult part. There is a way to make all of this work and keep the important players. It's not without complication though. I'm going to assume they can make the cap work for this stuff without getting into the details of making it happen, but I won't get so far out of range that it needs explaining.
1. Re-sign Emmanuel Sanders to a 2 year deal
Sanders, assuming health and continued success this season, should be the priority. Nobody else who could potentially leave in 2020 leaves as big a hole in the roster. Plus it's a new relationship. Treat him right and get it done quickly.
2. Re-sign Arik Armstead
This is borderline insanity, but it has to happen. He is just too good to let him go for what will amount to a 3rd round 2021 comp pick. I think as things are right now they could probably manage to lock him down for about 14m a year. Maybe even mix in some Paraag magic that gives the team some options down the line.
3. Extend DeForest Buckner
DeFo is having a "down" year in terms of production and his silly PFF grade, but he's still a monster and there is no way he wont be expensive. Grady Jarrett's 17m per year deal is probably around where we're looking for a DeFo extension. This one is going to take maximum creativity to pull off.
4. Extend George Kittle
Kittle comes in behind DeFo in priority for one reason. The Franchise tag for a TE is much more palatable. Worst case scenario they have to tag Kittle and he gets his big payday on a one year deal and they worry about making it permanent the next year. As crazy as the amounts of money we're talking about in these 4 deals are, I think it's possible they do all of them in one season.
5. Franchise Tag Kyle Juszczyk for 2021
The tag for a fullback will be very cheap and I don't think he'll put up a fight against it. The team needs the breathing room.
All in we're looking at about 55-60m APY for these players. That seems insane and impossible, but 2020 is looking like the teams tightest year against the cap. the 20m expected cap space right now + however much more it increases than expected + cap cuts of around 15m gets us around the 40m mark. Some creative bookkeeping by extending or restructuring players like Sherman, Jimmy G, Dee Ford, Tartt and Coleman can get them to the finish line. It's a crazy thing to even attempt, but when your team is undefeated you do what you can to keep that rolling.
It's been an amazing season so far. Even my homer ass never thought they'd be heading into week 10 without a single loss. I've rarely had more fun watching the 49ers play. This team reminds me of my childhood watching Montana and Rice and Young and Lott. That is heavy praise, even for an undefeated team, but it's true. It's not just the winning. It's how much they're enjoying playing. This is both the best and most fun team in the NFL. Thats a recipe for championships.
I'd like to apologize for not writing more during this season. Consider this my attempt to fight against this sub only being low quality memes (seriously guys, memes are fine but ya'll are terrible) You guys are always so kind to me and actually listen to my armchair GMing. IDK why anyone would take my opinion seriously, but I appreciate it nonetheless. Reading the comments on these posts and talking about my Niners with you all is a lot of fun. Hopefully I'll have more reasons to write the rest of this regular season and into the postseason.
submitted by WastedFrog to 49ers [link] [comments]


2019.10.03 18:27 justwill94 How to talk to a prosecutor in traffic court

For my old post I got pulled over for going 30 over and also received a reckless operation. Had a court date last week. I plead not guilty to both. Now I’m being sent to Garfield Heights municipal court. In Ohio. I was going to at a lawyer. But the one I found charged $750. He said I can take him on but if his price was too steep he gave me advice and said. Talk to a prosecutor he said that he’d most likely throw out reckless operation and I’ll be left with the speeding ticket. But how do I do this. Is the prosecutor in the court room before I talk to a judge. Or do I ask for one as soon as I get there.
This is in Cleveland Ohio
submitted by justwill94 to legaladvice [link] [comments]


2019.10.03 00:17 yamborma Relive Some of the Highs and Lows of 2019

I thought I'd put together a sort of season in review post for 2019 that includes some of what I think were the most important moments, good and bad. I'll get the bad stuff out of the way so we can end on a high note. Also, there are probably plenty that I missed, so I encourage everyone to mention their own moments.

Note: Readeviewer discretion advised. For those of you who don't want to relive the negative moments from this year just yet (or ever), skip reading/checking links/watching clips for this section - it'll just make you upset. I've included the things I remember most because I think they help tell the story of our 2019 season, but if you want to only be happy, skip it and only check out the best parts - which are further down.

The Lows











The Highs


















I'm sure there are tons that I missed - what do you guys think?
submitted by yamborma to ClevelandIndians [link] [comments]


2019.09.06 03:20 Pickup_your_nuts Today In History 06/09














































submitted by Pickup_your_nuts to ConservativeKiwi [link] [comments]


2019.08.14 22:08 Polishguy00 Polishguy Watches the Preseason 8-8-19

This little review is a rip-off of a rip-off. I really enjoyed a recent article by our friends at PFF. In it, the author gives three stats for each team for fantasy football in 2019 and admits that the concept is taken from Matthew Berry's annual articles. It was an honorable thing to do. My article, though, has none of that. It's pure laziness. I didn't even review any of the games played beyond last Thursday because I played poker (won!) on Friday. and then went to a bachelor party (fell asleep first because I'm old, and no, that's not a euphemism for "passing out) on Saturday. Some of you might remember previous reviews focusing on the young quarterbacks. This article at least has that.
Carolina at Chicago
- I wanted to get a look at David Montgomery. I saw a lot of Michael Turner in him, low to the ground with sneaky shiftiness. Twitter thought he was Kareem Hunt due to him being the exact same size and Nagy being from Kansas City. Sure, that's fine and all, but I prefer the comparison that doesn't mean he will use women like a baseball bat.
- Mitch Trubisky played. If you sneezed, you missed it. He handed off three times to Mike Davis. Later, Trubisky implied that any reps are "good." I really thought this was the time of the year teams really practiced. I must be wrong.
- Speaking of baseball bats, the best player on the field for the Bears on offense was a guy named Ian Bunting. He had a nice catch which made up for the three non-production mistakes he made before it. Some kicker named Fry hit a 43 yarder and everyone called it symbolic. I hope that the Rams are ready for Chicago for that Divisional Playoff game next week.
New York, New York
- Since the new stadium is just a crappy new version of their crappy old stadium with all the atmosphere of dive bar without Golden Tee, I think the teams should just be smashed together and forced to perform several Rockettes numbers in full uniform. At least I could say I saw something, then.
- Sam Darnold had exactly the season I predicted last year and I was curious just to see a glimpse of decision-making. I saw two nice plays made where he bought some time, and then found the best play, one for a big gain. He also threw what should have been an interception. So, I guess I still expect better things this season.
- Daniel Jones, who was cloned by the Giants to in order to have another tall, white, disappointing quarterback for several more seasons, looked great. He threw into Dante Fowler III's numbers better than a 37 year old Scott Bakula in "Necessary Roughness." By the way, talk about a movie that couldn't get made today. Whew. Wait a minute? How did it get made back then? Why do I always find myself watching it? Does anyone know that the 90's had a guy named Sinbad, who was a comedian, or an actor, or a health guru, or a Disney movie name? Anyhow, the weather got mad and stopped the game right then so Jones could not impress anymore. Also, God just might not want to see what happens to David Gettlemen's ego if he ever gets anything right.
Indianapolis at Buffalo
- Josh Allen is already in mid-season form. I charted some throws: Overthrow, 4 air yards for a completion, 8 yard comeback, overthrow, 8 yard comeback, scramble, 3 air yards completion, scramble, low uncatchable bullet. If any team finds a way to guess on those 8 yard comeback routes, Allen may be in trouble.
- Obviously, Andrew Luck did not play and may not play for a while longer as he deals with a continuously more mysterious injury. Perhaps he should try a home remedy of some of things his mom has sent him on his Twitter account. Fire up the cauldron, it's time for squirrel tack and some calf's blood butter on a stone.
- I had an ongoing problem watching these games. I kept swearing I saw Braxton Miller playing quarterback. The first time it happened, it was with Indy's Phillip Walker, who has apparently changed his name since college, which was PJ Walker. He was 0-2 in bowl games at Temple and finished this game with a line of 8-18, 85, INT. He really should have had two other picks, proving that the spirit of Nate Peterman still haunts Buffalo. Also, uh, The Colts really need Luck to play, not like Walker is next on the depth chart or anything, but still.
Tennessee at Philadelphia
- Why I don't trust the Titans: Logan Woodside looked like the best quarterback on the roster. Also, Mariota doesn't throw for 200 yards (just 6 out of 14 starts last season, 10 of 15 in 2017) enough and Tannehill stinks.
- We had a Cody Kessler sighting as he tries to continue on the lineage of himself to Charlie Frye to Jim Miller to Steve Walsh.
- Some poor kid named Austin Barnard was 1/3 on extra points. The Bears are interested in a trade.
Washington at Cleveland
- I liked the idea that Cleveland had of playing the first offense for a single two minute drive simulation. Of course, they looked great as Baker Mayfield had one of the best throws I saw from any of the games. It was 32 yards in the air over two players and in front of a third defender right into his receiver's hands for a touchdown. IHSH (If He Stays Healthy), he will be a top ten quarterback in real and fantasy football this season.
- The Browns new found depth in the roster was obvious in this one. One highlight that almost everyone has seen was from Damon Sheehy- Guiseppi, who returned a punt for a touchdown. His full story is worth looking up. It involves lying about knowing Alonzo Highsmith and sleeping in parking lots. With Antonio Callaway out, he now has a chance to make the squad with another nice return or two. If nothing else, he could open up a lawyer's office/Stromboli palace in Cleveland's Little Italy.
- Dwayne Haskins looked like a rookie, firing a couple lasers while also firing a couple interceptions; one of which was returned for a touchdown by Mack Wilson of Cleveland. He had a streak of over a week in practice making at least one interception.
Atlanta at Miami
- Despite the points scored, the game was boring, and the players on the field were limited in quality. It made for the perfect game for two Millennials to go on a crappy date, not communicate, stare at their phones, and call it a good time because they went out in public and saw a thing. They probably had imitation crab on rice, thinking they had sushi before the game, too.
- Adam Gase would be the best Captain Insane-O in the league if Antonio Brown didn't exist. He warms up on the sideline by snorting smelling salts as if it was stray coke on a bar at a place in New York's East Side. He warms up for another day at work by catching his children as they are being born as if they were shot out of a JUGS machine. I wish he was a good coach.
- The reports on Josh Rosen were mixed. My feelings are the same. The stats looked fine, but he played behind a bad line that could have been all the names in a classic cop/villain movie: Mills, Deiter, Reed, Calhoun, and Holden. Not sure if he is already shell-shocked or if he just hasn't quite caught up the speed of the league yet. I saw a lot of nice film with accuracy from him last year despite the situation, but I just don't know what to think at all, really.
New England at Detroit
- The Lion PR Twitter account actually boasted their 12-4 record in the last 16 preseason games after this loss. Sometimes, the joke is the statement.
- Matt Patricia coached from a little perch (Patricia's Perch is not a recommended seafood item). I assume he wanted practice on the view that it takes to run a camera or something. He won't be coaching much longer.
- Tom Brady put his house on the market and put up an Instagram video where he throws to three of himself. I'm not sure if those are things to think about all, or if the video really is a dig at Belichick and the receivers on the roster. Darth Hoodie, ahead of everything as always, might not care about offense anymore because he might have the best defense he has ever had in New England if the nine sacks in this game were any indicator.
Jacksonville at Baltimore
- A preseason game so bad that it only deserves two bullet points. Count me as one who isn't sold on the new Jags offense. The one highlight is that we found out what a Gardner Minshew was. It's the definition of three yards per attempt.
- Lamar Jackson threw to some wide open guys, too. That was cool.
Houston at Green Bay
- This was the ugliest of all the games with bad play, penalties, and tons of turnover-worthy throws.
- Is that Braxton Miller? No, it was Joe Webb III playing for most of the time just to use of some snaps during a preseason that is now obviously, and painfully too long. Miller is on the Eagles, by the way.
- I have to mention the Duke Johnson trade. He might have some impact in Houston and he will certainly make the roster for 10 games so that Cleveland gets the third round pick over the fourth rounder. Here's the problem, though; Bill O'Brien doesn't throw to his running backs all that much. The range for catches by the Houston running back that led the team during the last four seasons have been 38, 26, 31, 28. Is a third-rounder worth 29 catches for 270 yards and three scores?
San Angeles at Arizona
- Kyler Murray looked great. He was slippery, threw quickly and on time on most throws and just looked efficient. No passes were deep and no play was particularly extraordinary, but I really do worry about the first time he does get hit. He looked like a tiny human.
- The Chargers running backs looked plenty good and even had good stats to go along with passing the eye test. Melvin Gordon can probably just join Zeke Elliott in Cabo.
- Since I love talking about former Ohio State Quarterbacks, I should mention that there was a Cardale Jones sighting in this game. I will also take time to mention that as a former Buckeye myself, I hate the "The," will always hate the "The," and find the copyright attempt to be silly and pretentious. However, I do appreciate the idea of leaning into the fact that most of the country hates Ohio State and trolling all of them. Still, it's dumb.
Denver at Seattle
- Other than all of his quarterback decisions, it is time to criticize John Elway for finding a way to FAIL at the Paxton Lynch Revenge Bowl. There was even reports about Broncos players wanting to make plays against Lynch. 11/15, 109, TD. Seriously, John?
- I wasn't sure about what I saw with Josh Rosen, but I am sure about Drew Lock. The NFL hasn't slowed down for him yet. He has the tools, but it will take time. Hopefully, he will be granted that opportunity.
- The NFL Gods had to remind me that the world was still spinning, so Geno Smith still looked terrible. Thank goodness, I was about to go cash in all my corporate bonds I got from Blockbuster Video.

I hope you enjoyed this trip around the league.
submitted by Polishguy00 to footballpros [link] [comments]


2019.07.29 16:58 11997755 My story of stupidity - bringing a gun to an airport.

Hi all,
I ran into some legal troubles this past year and posted to reddit to get some legal advice. I since deleted all of it but I wanted to share my story to possibly give someone else who might do what I did a bit of insight into what happened with me.
My post from last August in legaladvice
——————————————————————————-
Hey guys, before I begin I know that I made a mistake. Every gun owner thinks they are a responsible gun owner and I never had to think I wasn’t until this instance. I made an honest mistake, very early in the morning when I was running late. I agree that I should be penalized but I don’t want this to ruin my life.
A few days ago I was issued a summons for Carrying a Concealed Weapon - F4 2923.12
The incident happened a couple months ago where I forgot my handgun in my backpack at Cleveland International. I have a CCW permit for the state of OH and carry primarily for work. I drive a pretty nice work vehicle with expensive equipment through some tough areas and stay in hotels constantly. That morning I was running late for a early morning flight and I thought I had already put the handgun in my trucks center console and locked the center console before leaving it. Unfortunately it was still in the bottom of my bag, I had forgotten to make the switch while I was packing my bag.
Fast forward to TSA, my bag was pulled for additional screening and they brought 4 people to assist. They started asking me in depth questions about my plans and my work and the bag. I was completely unaware but figured it was a slow morning for them. Finally the person checking my bag Indicated to a colleague whatever they were looking for was near the bottom. I mentioned that one of the pockets was very deep and they pulled my handgun out of the aforementioned pocket. This is where my bad day starts.
Everyone gets very tense and I back away from the gun. I calmly tell them that the gun was a mistake and show them my Ohio CCW. That puts everyone at relative ease. Everyone is very calm and they clear my weapon and take photos of the gun and my ID and CCW. I ask the TSA officer what happens and they say that I have to go with police but since I have my CCW the TSA will only give me civil penalties, i.e. fines. Cleveland PD is present and I’m brought to their offices in the airport. (They walked me through the terminals with my gun in a gallon zip lock bag with the ammunition inside, no handcuffs just lots of heavy stares) I make my statement and I’m put in a holding cell to await the FBI.
FBI guy shows up. Incredibly calm, very understanding. Says it happens all the time and I’m lucky that the laws changed a few year ago so that I wasn’t put in jail. Asks me some questions, determined in just a normal guy who made a mistake and assured me that I’ll probably only have to pay TSA fines. He tells me that he has to pass my case onto the Attorney General but that he’s confident nothing will ever come of it. He releases me to Cleveland PD who walks me outside of security so I can start all over again.
Back to the beginning- the state of Ohio is charging me Carrying a Concealed Weapon - F4. This charge is only a felony when a gun and ammunition are present together and holds according to one website I checked a minimum of 6 months in prison. This would completely ruin my life.
My defense obviously, is that I have a permit to carry a concealed weapon in Ohio and that I had my weapon unknowingly and I had no intent to cause harm with it. I’m a 20 something male with nothing prior on my record. Not even a speeding ticket. The gun was bought from a registered dealer and has only been fired at the range.
I’m looking for any advice on the topic but again please hold off on the “forgot where your gun is dog pile”. I understand that I made a mistake and that laws are in place to punish those who would do this maliciously. I take full responsibility for my actions. But I don’t think my crime is worth an F4 felony.
I’m meeting with local attorneys this week, and I will update the process as I go.
Fun fact- According to TSA 70-80 guns are found in carryons each month and the TSA has a less than 15% success rate in finding dangerous items anyways. According to ClePD I was the 22nd person to do this just in Cleveland Hopkins this year.
—————————————————————————
That was in March. The incident in question happened last October. Since I received the indictment in March a lot has happened.
I went to court 5 times. The worst being the first in which I pleaded not guilty via my lawyer and they processed me. Took almost 5 hours of waiting. From then on out the next 3 I would arrive and wait for my lawyer for over an hour maybe 2 and then talk to him for a couple minutes and go home. He was doing nothing wrong- this is just cuyahoga county’s court system and I’m not his only client. My lawyer did a fantastic job for me. After the third date I was told that I was accepted into the diversion program. The diversion program is for first time nonviolent offenders and includes a minimum of 6 months of probation. You plead guilty to the charges but the judge does not find you guilty in this time. You complete the programs requirements and then the case is dismissed and expunged.
The last time I went to court I did just that - plead guilty to my f4 charge and was remanded to the diversion program. 40 hours of community service, court costs, probation.
My first check in was in March. My PO was a fair guy who gave me the feeling right off the bat that I was the absolute least of his worries and was wondering how to get me out of his hair as soon as possible. I was drug tested for the first 3 check ins (once a month) and told if I was clean and did my community service I would be terminated early from probation.
Maybe I wasn’t in the know or I didn’t ask around enough but the only community service available to me was the road crew. I picked up trash around Cleveland for 40 hours in a orange vest.
The day before my 4th probation check in I received certified mail informing me that my case has been dismissed.
My total costs- roughly $4000 $2500 on a lawyer which was recommended to me from a good friend. He had represented 10 other clients in similar cases and was well respected in cuyahoga county. $1000 ~ on court costs, probation fees, parking, etc. $500 ~ my Glock 27 which I assume I will never get back.
In theory the TSA could still fine me for this but from my understanding it isn’t very common. I’ve flown domestically almost once a month since this has happened and been to Canada and Mexico with no issues.
Anyways, I wanted to share my experience with others. I was incredibly irresponsible with my firearm and it resulted in months of stress, strain on personal relationships and financial burden. I was terribly unlucky to have to done this in cuyahoga county. A court system that is broken and corrupt and will prosecute any crime just to collect court costs and push another person through diversion. I’ve been told that other counties in Ohio ignore these instances and let TSA leverage punishment. I’ve also heard horror stories through this experience that illustrate how broken this legal system really is and how lucky I was to have a stable job, time to spend endless hours at the justice center and money to find an experienced lawyer.
Feel free to ask me any questions or tell me how stupid I really am, I wanted to add this to the Internet because a panicked me turned to reddit for advice and there was only one more account of a similar experience that I could find. Maybe I can help ease the mind of another panicked person with this.
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2019.07.22 23:41 Th3HarryHorrorShow mr ridgers

· Who is Jeffrey Dahmer A. Jeffrey Dahmer is one of the most famous serial killers and sex fiends in American history; Dahmer killed 17 men, engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism
· B. Dahmer was criminally active from the summer of 1978 up until his capture in 1991.
· C. Part of what makes Dahmer so fascinating is the nature of his crimes. Dahmer went further, faster than most people would ever dream going. His crimes and perversions are the stuff of nightmares, but what really fascinates me is who he was before his crimes.
· Many people identify with being a confused loner, trying to fit in. Most of us make it; others don't. Dahmer is a fascinating case study surrounding the nature of evil and raises alot of really neat questions about whether one is "born to kill".
· Slide
· Childhood
o Born to Lionel and Joyce Dahmer on May 21, 1960. i. Theres alot of debate over whether Jeff was drowned in attention or was deprived of it; Brian Masters' book "The Shrine of Jeffrey Dahmer" postulates that Joyce loathed breastfeeding and refused to do it.
· Lionel goes so far as to blame Joyce's difficult pregnancy as being a contributing factor towards Dahmer's behavior. Most of this seems like a crock of crap; many kids are raised on formula, and loads of women have difficult pregnancies.
· ii. More on Lionel's claims: "There could be possibly some physiological, some biochemical basis to this because my ex-wife had been taking about 26 tablets of different medications about one month after becoming pregnant," Lionel Dahmer said in an interview aired Wednesday on the syndicated television program "Inside Edition."
o They were described as sedating and tranquilizing drugs which have the scientific names of meprobamate, mephobarbital, phenobarbitol and secobarbital and the female sex hormone progestin. The report said they now are considered potential risks to a developing fetus.
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o Who are the Parents
§ Lionel Herbert Dahmer
o Quiet and studious man--had a degree in chemistry and that was his primary career.
o Lionel was "married to his work for the most part. trying to advance career and get doctorate.
§ Annette "Joyce" Dahmer
o highly emotional woman; thought to be a bit of a hypochondriac.- most of what we know about Joyce dahmer is derived from lionel's descriptions of her which could be pretty inaccurate for all we know.
· One story i particular really highlights her flightiness; they had an argument one night, and a PREGNANT joyce dahmer walked out of the house with no boots on and stormed off for 4 blocks to the park.
· This was in the middle of the winter, and "Shrine" talks about the wind that winter blowing in from lake michigan, icy cold and snow banks piled on the ground. Lionel had to come "prove his love" and fetch her. Joyce Dahmer has refused interviews for the most part.
§ Other observations: both are pretty self centered in their own respect.
· Her father was an alcoholic and since its widely believed that those genes are hereditary, one might posit that dahmer was genetically predisposed. joyce was ignored by drunkard dad a bunch and so, shrine puts forward, she demanded respect and attention from everyone else.
· shrine almost fetishisticly focuses on joyce. lionel did have a temper, but his sin was for the most part his slavish devotion to work. Joyce was pregnant within days of their marriage.
o Baby Dahmer- Stories and facts from infancy
§ Birth
o Dahmer was born at the evangelical deaconess hospital in milwaukee- 4:34 PM on 21 may 1960. 6 lbs 15 ounces. it was a Saturday; books says good looking baby, cause handsome parents.
· parents went through most of the new parent stuff; baby book etc. jeff had casts on his legs till 4 months and had to wear lifts in his shoes till 6 to correct his legs. Took a shining to animals as most kids do.
· Joyce again didnt do breast feeding; taped breasts. Find book quote
· Slide
· Jeff was described as awkward and ill at ease with other kids in elementary school.
· By age 3 doctors looking at him mentioned he had a hernia that may need operating on; this would be a pivitol event in dahmer's life. Few weeks after Christmas he was taken to the hospital; double hernia surgery was needed- alot for a 4 year old to take in.
· Jeff remembers watching Bewitched on tv with a bunch of other kids before the operation; this would be in 19 march 1964.
· Effect of surgery on Dahmer
· Surgery took place on 19th of March 1964; the first thing Dahmer knew was intense pain in his groin region.
· The young boy thought his privates had been cut off; the pain lasted about a week. The surgery would not have normally merited much attention at all, but dahmer's crimes themselves were so specific in nature that it makes one wonder.
· The surgery was in a sensitive area, and involved lots of people digging around inside of him. Shrine makes a decent point here; this would be the most intimate event of his life for a long time.
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· Also tricked a black neighborhood boy into sticking his hand into a hornet's nest thinking there might be ladybugs inside. A lot of dahmer's victims were black. Is that telling of something?
· The most commonly repeated story is the fiddlesticks story- jeff finds some bones under his crawlspace while cleaning it with his dad.
· He played with them alot, loving the sound they made when they hit the ground. When he would hold his pets, he mentioned he could feel their fiddlesticks...and wondered if they looked the same.
§ 1966 and Jeff Growing up
o jeff is now 6 jeff's mom is hitting up pills hard, throwing back equanil and seconal to try to give herself peace.
· She'd often double down on dosage if it wasnt mellowing her out soon enough. Shrine alludes to a possible suicide attempt, but i couldnt find any more info from other sources.
· Shrine also carries alot of water for Lionel sayin he's overworked cause he's busy studying for his doctorote, working, and having to shop too (god forbid). apparently lionel had to handle shopping cause joyce couldn't drive.
· Lionel would hit joyce- shrine continues the virtual handjob to lionel stating that he did it to calm her nervousness, never out of malevolence.
· either way jeff's teachers reported they felt jeff was neglected. Joyce found church and tried to use it to battle her depression. she also told lionel she wanted a second child. that seems like a way to get ouf depression and into madness. Around this time, Lionel got his doctorate and got a gig in ohio meaning the family had to move.
· Jeff had to sell his cat as a result-got a dog at the new house to compensate. By this time, Jeff was becoming more inward and withdrawn. read the passage from shrine page 26. Temporarily holding this erosion of his personailty was the prospect of having a baby brother to play with.
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o Childhood and Teenage Years
§ Doylestown
o Lionel's new gig brought the family to doylestown ohio.
· Jeff's brother david was born on december 18th 1966. Joyce was gloomy with depression and the mood in the house was dark.
· Joyce bitched about how much noise the neighbors made; they had to move- despite it being a rural area with neighbors far off.
· They rented a house in Barberton Ohio a few months after moving to doylestown. Dahmer didnt really do well in town and the introvert didnt really like making new friends in a new town.
· The kids in town played a choking game with dahmer; an incident of note considering that dahmer killed almost all of his victims via choking. Jeff was invited to stangle one boy who promised not to tell the teacher; of course the kid and ratted him out to the teacher.
· The big takeaway is that dahmer felt betrayed; shrine postulates that this betrayal was some of the first blushes of a schizoid personality.
· page 28 for description of schizoid. another betrayed trust was dahmer giving his teacher some tadpoles in jar he found. she kept them in class for a day or two; after that the disappeared. dahmer then, incidentally, was playing at a kids house and saw that the teacher had give nthe tadpoles to the kid.
· dahmer, felt betrayed and hurt and killed the tadpoles by pouring motor oil in the jar. -if she doesnt want them, noone can have them.
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§ Bath
o When taking the family for a drive one day, was driving through Bath Ohio; they saw a home for sale- 4480 west bath road; they would buy the home and it would be their family home for 10 years until the marriage fell apart and dahmer began his trip down bathshit road.
· the house was a big step up- lionel built a chicken coop, jeff had woods and a lake to explore- it was at this time he began to explore dead bodies he'd find- to a very minor extent- frogs and small animals.
· dahmer was turning into a bit of a layabout- never seemed to take interest in anything besides personal secretive pursuits. mix of his father's in-wardness and his mother's self centerdness
· Jeff one night when eating chicken, asked his dad what would happen if he was to bleach chicken bones- his dad was super proud of this and saw it as hope that his kid would turn into a scientist. this was when jeff was 10. a
§ 1970
o Joyce's pill popping reached a head- she was tossing back 8 equanil a day on top of laxatives and sleeping pills. she was running from something; jeff recalls he could feel the uncertainty of his familial situation-
· page 31 for direct marriage quote.
· Joyce spent most of her time in bed, and other normally friendly family moments were laced with tension of whether joyce would be able to handle it.
· She still kept popping pills though. Jeff blamed himself but also didnt have anyone he felt he could take to, for fear of freaking his mother out.
· He would go out into the woods and beat trees to work out his frustration. early alienation is a common symptom of people who become compulsive murders.
· page 32.
· description of child aberration. shrine even goes so far as to say he was bad from infancy- postulating that troublesome and demanding babies are exercising basic human emotion. "good babies" are actually dead inside, according to the book.
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§ Teenage Years
o Lionel was noticing dahmer's withdrawn nature even more and tried to correct it- with tennis. he taught him the game, hoping it would "awaken his energy"- most people saw it for what it was- jeff being pressured into the game.
· they tried boy scouts, even when they were killing some lambs they had raised, jeff was mostly emotionless.
· While dad was trying to pull him out of the dead zone, mom completely unplugged. jeff was never really close to mom, and she stayed in bed almost all day every day during this time.
· when joyce was awake she seemed desperate and petty, letting small things oppress her- jeff in turn was inward and secretive. jeff seemed unfased by puberty- shrine speculates that because his emotions were so muted, his reponses to thsoe changes were muted in turn.
· He had a bit of homosexual exploration with a childhood friend, eric. eric initiated and they would hike and fish, while later meeting in a tree house to kiss, touch, and caress. They did this around 3-4 times and then broke it off due to fear of getting found out.
o Dahmer had also been drinking since around age 14. he was super apathetic but also would act out as class clown. page 35 some classic "pranks"-seems alot like a stupid youtuber. dahmer tried to make a friend or two, but some had their parents say he wasnt allowed to hang out with dahmer, while other friendships never developed any depth.
· he was a smart kid, but his grades sucked- partly from goofing off, apathy, and hitting the booze. his parents tried to get a tutor but it didnt really work out well.
· Slide
· Dahmer would spend most of his free time patrolling the woods for animal skeletons- the same eric kid who had the homosexual liason found his little hut and noticed the many collected skeletal samples.
· there was a graveyard for animals next to the hut. he kept a pig he dissected in school. nothing was perceived to be suspicious about this- his dad thought he would be a decent biologist perhaps. jeff developed even more, hunting for road kill he would haul off and cut open.
· dahmer didnt follow the common killer being cruel to animals trope; he was a product man and was interested in the corpse alone. sadists want to exert control over others and want the interplay between themselves and the one they inflict pain on; dahmer wasnt into that and just wanted the body- the machine of life itself.
· dog bone story pg 37
· As dahmer's teen years progress he's getting more and more drunk; one of his main buddies was Jeff Six who was a pot dealer in the student body. Jeff Six was a piece of shit, even bothering dahmer; when driving together, Six would intentionally cruise around for dogs to try to hit with his car.
· Shrine states that Dahmer recalls Six hitting 4 dogs in a day. They hit a puppy one time and the gaze it gave dahmer was something he remembered even in prison all those years later.
· Circle back to eyes open victim. Dahmer was largely asexual in high school and his parents had completely cooled sexually with lionel sleeping on the couch.
· Dahmer at this point was masterbting three times a day or more and was beginning to look at homoerotic imagry, especially at male torsos. Discuss the first developmental phase of sexuality.
· Alongside this was the mostly seperate desire to explore the body; they were seperate for now, but the sexual progression would soon fuse to this part of dahmer's nature.
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· Dahmer began to obsess over a jogger that would run by his house- dahmer wanted to touch his body, but couldnt figure out how to make that happen. Dahmer planned to capture him, hiding in the bushes one day with a baseball bat. Despite the jogger having a fairly routine schedule, the day dahmer waited, the jogger never showed.
· How had dahmer progressed to potential violence so quickly? Dahmer claims not to know, but the likely culprit was unchecked sexual fantasy. Fantasy quote page 42.
· Masterbation was both a safety valve to vent sexual pressure, but it also solidifies the objects of desire and when the flight of fantasy meets the gravity of reality, it can be difficult to reconcile. Dahmer made the mistake of beginning to allow fantasy to spill over into reality.
· 1978
· Christmas time, dahmer's parents begin divorce filings. during the previous year they had tried to get counseling but that failed.
· when joyce went out of town for her dad's funeral she shacked up with another guy.
· they originally decided to split amicably but lionel then sends her a registered letter from his lawyer saying she has to pack up in a week. After yelling and fighting with one another, dahmer decides to do the alpha move and move out.
· he went and stayed at the ohio motel at 2248 north cleveland massillon road.
· Meanwhile the courts declared joyce needs to undergo a psych eval. lionel sent a full book of information about his wife he had been collecting on her mental health, and her substance abuse issues. joyce in turn told her therapist all about her struggles even describing lionel as "insatiable".
· quote about her health page 44. the parents discussed frequently who would have custody over david, but jeff was mostly forgotten about.
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· shrine calls dahmer at this point, "dangerously disconnected"- completley overlooked in the divorce struggle. this would lead to alot of trouble.
· prom date story? page 46- also went to DC with his class and ended up calling the then vice president- he was able to make a face to face introduction with his class mates and the VP
· he and his few friends who by some accounts used him for laughs more than anything, managed to get dahmer into almost every group yearbook photo as a prank.
· the parents get a divorce, and joyce effectively gets the house- as part of the agreement, joyce is awarded custody of minor david, but told to stay within the court's jurisdiction.
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· stephen hicks
· dahmer's fantasies continued to evolve to the point where he began to understand what really turned him on- the male torso and the concept of possessing someone. the fantasy of the hitchhiker
· the thoughts even got to the point where he thought he would have to kill someone to achieve the idea of possessing someone. dahmer kept these urges at bay through masturbating, unknowingly solidifying them in his psyche. page 51. arrows from the blue quote.
· one day in june, dahmer asked his dad if he could borrow his car- i think lionel was still living at the hotel. dahmer was to return the car the next day. the pretense was to go the movies. cruising around 5 along the highway, dahmer saw something that caught his eye- a young man hitchhiking along the road side.
· The young man was Steve Hicks, and he was the ideal victim for dahmer- young, handsome, and shirtless. it sounds funny, but given dahmer's obesession with torsos, this was borderline pornagraphic for him.
· The stretch of road they were on wasn't commonly used, and dahmer realized he had stumbled onto a perfect scenario. A car, a willing and handsome passenger, and an empty house.
· Dahmer was nervous but turned around and made the approach. Dahmer introduced himself, and Steven in turn introduced himself. Steven was from Illinois and dahmer was able to convince him to head back to his place with an offer of beer and some weed.
· When they arrived, they headed to Jeff's room; steve passed on the weed, but took jeff up on his offer for some beers. jeff began to frantically try and figure out how to make a pass at steve.
· meanwhile steve revealed he was very much straight- he had in fact just finished celebrating his 19th birthday with his girlfriend.
· Dahmer began to get more and more upset each time the girlfriend was issued- the pressure was building and each word from steve in that regard was like turning the key of a jack in the box.
· dahmer began to realize this conversation, and in turn his whole life wasn't going anywhere- dark frustration started to build.
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· after a few hours hicks metioned it was probably time for him to be heading out. this was the last chance- nervousness and anger drove dahmer's next steps. he wasn't going to let someone else leave him. he excused himself to the cellar for a moment- grabbed an 8 inch barbell- took the weights off, and went back upstairs.
· steve was sitting with his back to the cellar door- Dahmer seized his chance and swung at his head with the barbell. The impact angered Hicks who began to fight with Dahmer; a short bru haha ensued but Dahmer hit hicks over the head a second time and knocked him out.
· Dahmer was likely full of nervous energy and excitement, and was beyond reasoning or rationale. He hesitated then took the barbell and strangled Hick's body with it.
· Dahmer had killed for the first time; and once his nerves died down and he caught his breath, he claimed his prize.
· Stripping Hick's of his shirt he began to revel in the beauty of Hick's body. Again Dahmer was a product killer; after all this Dahmer had his object of desire. He ran his hands all over the body, especially his chest- kissing and caressing it. He lay down next to the body for a while. My guess is definitly big spoon.
· Finally, Dahmer stood up and masterbated on to the body. This act of masterbation I feel has incredible significance- it begins to tie violence into sexuality and to further reinforce his desires to obtain product at any cost. Like anyone who has cum will tell you, Dahmer was hit with post nut clarity- he had killed somebody.
· His desires had escalated then become real. Dahmer was consumed with fear and once night fell, he dragged the body outside and under the house's crawlspace.
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· He went back inside but couldn't sleep- he was in full on panic mode. In one aspect his fantasy world had made the dangerous leap and crossed over into reality. On the other hand, he had a 19 year old boy's weight in evidence sitting in his crawlspace.
· His focus turned towards the latter- he needed to get rid of the body. When the next day came, Damer went shopping- he bought a large knife and went to the crawlspace to get to work.
· The crawlspace itself was rather large- part of the house was on stilts due to the house being on a hill.
· Dahmer got to the grisly work of dissassembling the body. first he cut off his arms and legs, then removed his head. Dahmer also too the time to recreate some of his experiments with roadkill, cutting open the belly and poking about in the innards.
· Most of the blood soaked into the ground behind the house. Dahmer then put the body parts in triple lined garbage bags, burned his ID and clothes, and left the bags under the crawlspace for a while.
· Dahmer spent the better part of the day trying to figure out what to do with the body. HE ultimatley decided to dump the remains into a ravine 10 miles from his house. What follows is a crazy and really sad story.
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· Dahmer loaded up the bags full of body parts into the back of his car a little before 3 AM. He downed a few beers then drove off. A police car arond 3AM signalled for him to stop and pull over; the cop called for back up and told Jeff to get out of the car. They had Jeff do the schtick with his finger on his nose and walking the line.
· Jeff passed, but wasn't out of the woods yet- the cop shown a flashlight in the car and asked -" whats that smell?"- jeff then implemented his silver tongue- a skill that he would use throughout his criminal career to explain the bags away. He claimed he was taking the trash to the dump- this late in the evening because his parents were in a divorce arguments and he couldn't sleep.
· Its crazy to think about it...had the cop involved been more diligent, Dahmer's spree would have been over before it started. What's even crazier is the cop who flagged the young dahmer down would later be the self same cop who interview dahmer while he was in custody.
· Dahmer returned home with the bodies in the car and a new speeding ticket. He stowed the bags back under the crawlspaces, and then did something completely beyond the pale of what he had done before. He opened the bags and rifled through them to find steven hick's head.
· He took it upstairs, relishing in the notion that it was HIS now. He then proceeded to masturbate while looking at it. This was a major escalation for dahmer and represented the turning of a page into a new darker chapter in dahmer's book.
· Serial killers are almost all characterized by their small allowances and incremental steps toward depravity. this was one of dahmer's first steps down this road.
· Dahmer was out of ideas regarding the body of Steven Hicks; he decided to bury it in a pipe behind his house. He kept the head for a bit longer then disposed of that too.
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· He threw Steven's necklace and the butchering knife he had used on the body in the Cuyahoga River.
· Taint your life quote. page 55.
· Out of all the deaths he caused, Dahmer regretted this one the most. This may be the only he regretted at all. It would be 9 years before he killed again, but the memories would haunt him the whole time.
· He would at times, break down into tears over it and in 1991, when discussing it with a pschiatrist after his arrest, he only go silent when the topic would come out.
· The pschiatrist would prod him for details to which Dahmer only replied "I'd rather be talking about anything else in the world than this".
· I really like the way Shrine put his next point- pg. 56 moral inertia quote.
· Hicks was last seen alive on 18th of June- his body would be missing for 13 years.
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· DAHMER LEFT ALONE
· Joyce decides to leave and go to wisconsin, taking david with her. she urges jeff to come, but he decides to stay.
· since lionel is living at a motel, this leaves jeff home alone. to my understanding, this would be the last time he sees joyce. (circle back if false).
· Jeff is left home alone, with no almost no groceries to speak of, and a wreck of a house for around three weeks- ultimatly his dad finds out the house is empty and moves back in.
· school was out, and college hadnt started- he was alone mentally and physically for almost an entire month. before joyce had left him there for days on end when she went for periodic visits. It was during one of these periods that dahmer first brought his fantasy world into reality.
· this was much worse. i use the phrase much worse, because it served as time for jeff's darkest fantasies to solidify. he was alone with his thoughts, masterbating, eating drinking and sleeping all day. as his sex craze began to deepen he turned his attention towards...
· FLASH FORWARD-
· Lionel and future step mom Shari come back to the house in Bath to find Jeff living in a trashed and empty house with just himself, his dog, and his rubbed raw dick.
· Shari took it on her self to get Jeff ready for college.
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· Jeff spent his time drinking, dontating plasma to pay for booze. The clinic had to mark up hif fingernails to keep him from overdonating.
· He went to Ohio State
· He flunked out his first semester, despite his dad paying for two semesters in advance. Jeff's time in college makes a lot of sense- not excusable but in a weird way, logical. his drinking was part addiction, part burial mechanism. His detachment from others was a form of distrust both of his own self and of his own place in larger society.
· With Jeff back home, he hung out more with high school dumb ass friend Jeff Six. The two spent considerable time smoking pot and drinking, getting in trouble at one point for running over someone's lawn, and concluding with Jeff losing his parent's borrowed car. After Lionel and Shari returned from an extensive search for their own car, they concluded Jeff had to get his shit together.
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· He would need to go into the army-per Lionel's sugges-tolding him. He was accepted into a three year enlistment in the Military Police School- On Christmas eve ( afew weeks after the enlistment), Lionel would marry Shari- jeff didn't attend the ceremony. Four days after Christmas he headed for Alabama for training at Fort Mclellin.
· The military was an odd fit for Dahmer; on one hand the discipline and jam packed training schedule kept him off the bottle and helped keep his mind off of his mind.
· On the other hand, once drinking was again permitted, dahmer began to hit the sauce again- he was so frequently reprimanded for drunkenness that he once got his whole platoon written up for insubordination. His fellow soldiers subsequently gathered and beat the shit out of him; he was left bloodied and one of his ear-drums was broken- he would suffer ear aches 10 years later. That helped in some degree in keeping his rampant alcoholism n check.
· He left basic training and went through medic training- coming out fully trained. The skills would be later put to grisly use.
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· Dahmer was then assigned and stationed to Baumholder West Germany at a local base. He would spend two years there, being mostly remembered as a loner.
· One of the older soldiers in his unit suspected Dahmer of being homsexual, primarily on the basis that Dahmer "always seemed like he was hiding something". He spent most of his time in Germany walking about the local areas; he would frequent adult bookstores, browsing homosexual porn and drinking half off booze.
· During his more profound drunken bouts, he would weep. Shrine debates that he wasn't necessarily weeping over Hicks, but over the predicament he got himself into when he murdered.
· Although there aren't any missing persons reports or other indications that dahmer committed any crimes while in Germany, there is an odd story that I'll touch on. Dahmer was invited to a dinner party in 1979 for Thanksgiving. Snow was falling heavily outside and their host suggested those invited spend the night and wait out the storm.
· Later in the evening, the host of the party and dahmer got into an argument and dahmer slunk out of the house around 10:30, walking off into the snow.
· Some of the invitees noticed and spent 15 minutes or so outside looking for him, but were driven outside by the cold. The assumption was that Jeff had taken a taxi back to the base.
· FOUR HOURS late, dahmer shows up, but somethings not right. He appeared confused and distracted and didn't seem like he had been in the cold at all. His jacket wasn't cold like you'd expect, and he had lost his glasses. Dahmer set to washing his hands vigously in the kitchen, the host thinking there MAY have been some blood on his jacket. Whe nasked where had been, dahmer couldn't remember but assumed he must have done "something bad".
· A few days later, the host asked dahmer what happened that night- dahmer remained quiet, but later remarked "you know, sometimes the best thing for the soul is to confess". After drinking his way through the majority of his time in Germany, both on and off duty, Dahmer was given an honourable discharge 6 months early and was sent stateside to a city of his choosing.
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· Looking for better weather, Dahmer chose to fly to Florida. Jeff didnt realize his trunk with all of his shit or sent them off to start a new life , including his porn was sent back to his old house. Some time later, his brother David would find the trunk and the porn stash.
· In florida, he took a motel room and worked at a sub shop. he worked seven days a week and spent his earnings on booze. the job sucked and he couldn't make ends meet. He would eventually get kicked out of his motel and lived on the beach, becoming homeless.
· He broke down, finding he was unable to run from himself, and called his dad, asking to return home.
· Once home, and once Lionel and shari were at work, Dahmer went to the pipe he had stashed Hick's inside 3 years later and hauled his remains through the woods.
· He went to a small cliff and took what were now just bones, crushing each one with a large rock. He then took the fragment remains and scattered them throughout the woods.
· Slide
· Dahmer had returned home to Bath Ohio; Lionel and Shari (his dad and step mom) had gotten used to their new married life and had spent the past 3 years in relative marital bliss.
· They now had a new house guest in Jeffrey Dahmer- a quiet, dopey, jobless 21 year old step child.
· Lionel was at a loss- it didnt seem like there was anything his son could do if even the army kicked him out.
· Although he tried to help out around the house to stay busy, Jeff eventually fell back into his old ways- he got arrested for the first time at a Ramada Inn for drinking vodka straight from the bottle in the hotel lounge.
· Employees asked him to leave, but he refused and was escorted out. He then set up camp by the front door, where employees then had to try to pry him away.
· They eventually called the police and he was sent to the Akron Correctional Facility. The charges were eventually dropped to a municipal citation, but shit didn't get better after that.
· Lionel and Shari decided to dump Jeff off at Lionel's mom house in West Allis, Wisconsin.
· This solved two problems; Grandma (Catherine) was getting lonely and old- Lionel needed a way to keep tabs on her, and also needed to dump Jeff. Voila.
· Dahmer moved in to grandma's house in December, and took a liking to the arrangement immediately.
· He loved his grandma and her house was cozy and in a good quiet neighborhood. It was also very close to downtown Milwaukee.
· Dahmer was close with his grandma, when asked upfront if he loved her, he tellingly replied " Yup, she's lived in that house a long time". Nice little dodge there.
· Shrine makes a decent point; she was a kind church going woman, loving and warm- she would have been a fantastic rolemodel and influence on dahmer earlier in life- by the time he moved in to live with here, it was likely too late.
· Dahmer would spend 6 years with grandma, and the first moths were simple ones- helping around the house, watching TV together, and enjoying each other's company.
· Dahme had picked up smoking in the army btw- he smoked about a pack a day at this point
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· Dahmer picked up a gig at a local blood bank as a phlebotamist- he tapped into his medic skills from the army.
· he hated the work but had to start chipping in financially rather than living on grandma's generosity.
· Dahmer also spent the time developing a secret inner life in his new surrondings as well. Dahmer bought a .357 firearm, to keep his target practice skills fresh from the army.
· He had it for about 6 months until his dad found out and convinced dahmer to hand it over. Dahmer also began reading the Satanic Bible; I personally dont think anything of this- I think he was more curious than anything and was trying to explore his own personal demons.
· He also stole a bottle of blood from the clinic and, out of curiosity, drank the blood. The taste was revolting and he spat it out.
· Slide
· In August 1982, at the state fair he was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct for urinating in public- the arresting officer never mentioned urination. instead the language he used was page. 62
· That Thanksgiving Dahmer decided to turn over a new leaf; from that point on,
· Dahmer spent a significant portion of his time in church with his grandmother, finding religion as a way to cope with his internal turmoil.
· He even curbed his masturbation habit to once per week, and only by grinding on the bed. No-Handsies doesnt count. This good boy period lasted two years.
· Jeff spent Christmas of 83 with his mother and brother- this time would mark the last time he saw his mother until his arrest some years later.
· Slide
· In January of 1985, Dahmer took a job at the Ambrosia Chocolate factory- it was a dull job, but he could pay his grandmother 300$ rent and stay busy working the late shift from 11PM- 7 AM.
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2019.07.22 17:30 Th3HarryHorrorShow Cfgfs

I. Who is Jeffrey Dahmer A. Jeffrey Dahmer is one of the most famous serial killers and sex fiends in American history; Dahmer killed 17 men, engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism
B. Dahmer was criminally active from the summer of 1978 up until his capture in 1991. C. Part of what makes Dahmer so fascinating is the nature of his crimes. Dahmer went further, faster than most people would ever dream going. His crimes and perversions are the stuff of nightmares, but what really fascinates me is who he was before his crimes. Many people identify with being a confused loner, trying to fit in. Most of us make it; others don't. Dahmer is a fascinating case study surrounding the nature of evil and raises alot of really neat questions about whether one is "born to kill". 
II. Childhood A. Born to Lionel and Joyce Dahmer on May 21, 1960. i. Theres alot of debate over whether Jeff was drowned in attention or was deprived of it; Brian Masters' book "The Shrine of Jeffrey Dahmer" postulates that Joyce loathed breastfeeding and refused to do it.
Lionel goes so far as to blame Joyce's difficult pregnancy as being a contributing factor towards Dahmer's behavior. Most of this seems like a crock of crap; many kids are raised on formula, and loads of women have difficult pregnancies.
 ii. More on Lionel's claims: "There could be possibly some physiological, some biochemical basis to this because my ex-wife had been taking about 26 tablets of different medications about one month after becoming pregnant," Lionel Dahmer said in an interview aired Wednesday on the syndicated television program "Inside Edition." They were described as sedating and tranquilizing drugs which have the scientific names of meprobamate, mephobarbital, phenobarbitol and secobarbital and the female sex hormone progestin. The report said they now are considered potential risks to a developing fetus. B. Who are the Parents 1. Lionel Herbert Dahmer Quiet and studious man--had a degree in chemistry and that was his primary career. Lionel was "married to his work for the most part. trying to advance career and get doctorate. 2. Annette "Joyce" Dahmer highly emotional woman; thought to be a bit of a hypochondriac.- most of what we know about Joyce dahmer is derived from lionel's descriptions of her which could be pretty inaccurate for all we know. 
One story i particular really highlights her flightiness; they had an argument one night, and a PREGNANT joyce dahmer walked out of the house with no boots on and stormed off for 4 blocks to the park.
This was in the middle of the winter, and "Shrine" talks about the wind that winter blowing in from lake michigan, icy cold and snow banks piled on the ground. Lionel had to come "prove his love" and fetch her. Joyce Dahmer has refused interviews for the most part.
 3. Other observations: both are pretty self centered in their own respect. 
Her father was an alcoholic and since its widely believed that those genes are hereditary, one might posit that dahmer was genetically predisposed. joyce was ignored by drunkard dad a bunch and so, shrine puts forward, she demanded respect and attention from everyone else.
shrine almost fetishisticly focuses on joyce. lionel did have a temper, but his sin was for the most part his slavish devotion to work. Joyce was pregnant within days of their marriage.
 C. Baby Dahmer- Stories and facts from infancy 1. Birth Dahmer was born at the evangelical deaconess hospital in milwaukee- 4:34 PM on 21 may 1960. 6 lbs 15 ounces. it was a Saturday; books says good looking baby, cause handsome parents. 
parents went through most of the new parent stuff; baby book etc. jeff had casts on his legs till 4 months and had to wear lifts in his shoes till 6 to correct his legs. Took a shining to animals as most kids do.
Joyce again didnt do breast feeding; taped breasts. Find book quote
Jeff was described as awkward and ill at ease with other kids in elementary school.
By age 3 doctors looking at him mentioned he had a hernia that may need operating on; this would be a pivitol event in dahmer's life. Few weeks after Christmas he was taken to the hospital; double hernia surgery was needed- alot for a 4 year old to take in.
Jeff remembers watching Bewitched on tv with a bunch of other kids before the operation; this would be in 19 march 1964.
Effect of surgery on Dahmer
Surgery took place on 19th of March 1964; the first thing Dahmer knew was intense pain in his groin region.
The young boy thought his privates had been cut off; the pain lasted about a week. The surgery would not have normally merited much attention at all, but dahmer's crimes themselves were so specific in nature that it makes one wonder.
The surgery was in a sensitive area, and involved lots of people digging around inside of him. Shrine makes a decent point here; this would be the most intimate event of his life for a long time.
Also tricked a black neighborhood boy into sticking his hand into a hornet's nest thinking there might be ladybugs inside. A lot of dahmer's victims were black. Is that telling of something?
The most commonly repeated story is the fiddlesticks story- jeff finds some bones under his crawlspace while cleaning it with his dad.
He played with them alot, loving the sound they made when they hit the ground. When he would hold his pets, he mentioned he could feel their fiddlesticks...and wondered if they looked the same.
 3. 1966 and Jeff Growing up jeff is now 6 jeff's mom is hitting up pills hard, throwing back equanil and seconal to try to give herself peace. 
She'd often double down on dosage if it wasnt mellowing her out soon enough. Shrine alludes to a possible suicide attempt, but i couldnt find any more info from other sources.
Shrine also carries alot of water for Lionel sayin he's overworked cause he's busy studying for his doctorote, working, and having to shop too (god forbid). apparently lionel had to handle shopping cause joyce couldn't drive.
Lionel would hit joyce- shrine continues the virtual handjob to lionel stating that he did it to calm her nervousness, never out of malevolence.
either way jeff's teachers reported they felt jeff was neglected. Joyce found church and tried to use it to battle her depression. she also told lionel she wanted a second child. that seems like a way to get ouf depression and into madness. Around this time, Lionel got his doctorate and got a gig in ohio meaning the family had to move.
Jeff had to sell his cat as a result. By this time, Jeff was becoming more inward and withdrawn. read the passage from shrine page 26. Temporarily holding this erosion of his personailty was the prospect of having a baby brother to play with.
D. Childhood and Teenage Years 1. Doylestown Lionel's new gig brought the family to doylestown ohio. 
Jeff's brother david was born on december 18th 1966. Joyce was gloomy with depression and the mood in the house was dark.
Jeff got a dog- Frisky to compensate for having to sell his cat. Joyce bitched about how much noise the neighbors made; they had to move- despite it being a rural area with neighbors far off.
They rented a house in Barberton Ohio a few months after moving to doylestown. Dahmer didnt really do well in town and the introvert didnt really like making new friends in a new town.
The kids in town played a choking game with dahmer; an incident of note considering that dahmer killed almost all of his victims via choking. Jeff was invited to stangle one boy who promised not to tell the teacher; of course the kid and ratted him out to the teacher.
The big takeaway is that dahmer felt betrayed; shrine postulates that this betrayal was some of the first blushes of a schizoid personality.
page 28 for description of schizoid. another betrayed trust was dahmer giving his teacher some tadpoles in jar he found. she kept them in class for a day or two; after that the disappeared. dahmer then, incidentally, was playing at a kids house and saw that the teacher had give nthe tadpoles to the kid.
dahmer, felt betrayed and hurt and killed the tadpoles by pouring motor oil in the jar. -if she doesnt want them, noone can have them.
 2. Bath When taking the family for a drive one day, was driving through Bath Ohio; they saw a home for sale- 4480 west bath road; they would buy the home and it would be their family home for 10 years until the marriage fell apart and dahmer began his trip down bathshit road. 
the house was a big step up- lionel built a chicken coop, jeff had woods and a lake to explore- it was at this time he began to explore dead bodies he'd find- to a very minor extent- frogs and small animals.
dahmer was turning into a bit of a layabout- never seemed to take interest in anything besides personal secretive pursuits. mix of his father's in-wardness and his mother's self centerdness
Jeff one night when eating chicken, asked his dad what would happen if he was to bleach chicken bones- his dad was super proud of this and saw it as hope that his kid would turn into a scientist. this was when jeff was 10. a
 3. 1970 Joyce's pill popping reached a head- she was tossing back 8 equanil a day on top of laxatives and sleeping pills. she was running from something; jeff recalls he could feel the uncertainty of his familial situation- 
page 31 for direct marriage quote.
Joyce spent most of her time in bed, and other normally friendly family moments were laced with tension of whether joyce would be able to handle it.
She still kept popping pills though. Jeff blamed himself but also didnt have anyone he felt he could take to, for fear of freaking his mother out.
He would go out into the woods and beat trees to work out his frustration. early alienation is a common symptom of people who become compulsive murders.
page 32.
description of child aberration. shrine even goes so far as to say he was bad from infancy- postulating that troublesome and demanding babies are exercising basic human emotion. "good babies" are actually dead inside, according to the book.
 4. Teenage Years Lionel was noticing dahmer's withdrawn nature even more and tried to correct it- with tennis. he taught him the game, hoping it would "awaken his energy"- most people saw it for what it was- jeff being pressured into the game. 
they tried boy scouts, even when they were killing some lambs they had raised, jeff was mostly emotionless.
While dad was trying to pull him out of the dead zone, mom completely unplugged. jeff was never really close to mom, and she stayed in bed almost all day every day during this time.
when joyce was awake she seemed desperate and petty, letting small things oppress her- jeff in turn was inward and secretive. jeff seemed unfased by puberty- shrine speculates that because his emotions were so muted, his reponses to thsoe changes were muted in turn.
He had a bit of homosexual exploration with a childhood friend, eric. eric initiated and they would hike and fish, while later meeting in a tree house to kiss, touch, and caress. They did this around 3-4 times and then broke it off due to fear of getting found out.
 Dahmer had also been drinking since around age 14. he was super apathetic but also would act out as class clown. page 35 some classic "pranks"-seems alot like a stupid youtuber. dahmer tried to make a friend or two, but some had their parents say he wasnt allowed to hang out with dahmer, while other friendships never developed any depth. 
he was a smart kid, but his grades sucked- partly from goofing off, apathy, and hitting the booze. his parents tried to get a tutor but it didnt really work out well.
Dahmer would spend most of his free time patrolling the woods for animal skeletons- the same eric kid who had the homosexual liason found his little hut and noticed the many collected skeletal samples.
there was a graveyard for animals next to the hut. he kept a pig he dissected in school. nothing was perceived to be suspicious about this- his dad thought he would be a decent biologist perhaps. jeff developed even more, hunting for road kill he would haul off and cut open.
dahmer didnt follow the common killer being cruel to animals trope; he was a product man and was interested in the corpse alone. sadists want to exert control over others and want the interplay between themselves and the one they inflict pain on; dahmer wasnt into that and just wanted the body- the machine of life itself.
dog bone story pg 37
As dahmer's teen years progress he's getting more and more drunk; one of his main buddies was Jeff Six who was a pot dealer in the student body. Jeff Six was a piece of shit, even bothering dahmer; when driving together, Six would intentionally cruise around for dogs to try to hit with his car.
Shrine states that Dahmer recalls Six hitting 4 dogs in a day. They hit a puppy one time and the gaze it gave dahmer was something he remembered even in prison all those years later.
Circle back to eyes open victim. Dahmer was largely asexual in high school and his parents had completely cooled sexually with lionel sleeping on the couch.
Dahmer at this point was masterbting three times a day or more and was beginning to look at homoerotic imagry, especially at male torsos. Discuss the first developmental phase of sexuality.
Alongside this was the mostly seperate desire to explore the body; they were seperate for now, but the sexual progression would soon fuse to this part of dahmer's nature.
Dahmer began to obsess over a jogger that would run by his house- dahmer wanted to touch his body, but couldnt figure out how to make that happen. Dahmer planned to capture him, hiding in the bushes one day with a baseball bat. Despite the jogger having a fairly routine schedule, the day dahmer waited, the jogger never showed.
How had dahmer progressed to potential violence so quickly? Dahmer claims not to know, but the likely culprit was unchecked sexual fantasy. Fantasy quote page 42.
Masterbation was both a safety valve to vent sexual pressure, but it also solidifies the objects of desire and when the flight of fantasy meets the gravity of reality, it can be difficult to reconcile. Dahmer made the mistake of beginning to allow fantasy to spill over into reality.
1978
 Christmas time, dahmer's parents begin divorce filings. during the previous year they had tried to get counseling but that failed. 
when joyce went out of town for her dad's funeral she shacked up with another guy.
they originally decided to split amicably but lionel then sends her a registered letter from his lawyer saying she has to pack up in a week. After yelling and fighting with one another, dahmer decides to do the alpha move and move out.
he went and stayed at the ohio motel at 2248 north cleveland massillon road.
Meanwhile the courts declared joyce needs to undergo a psych eval. lionel sent a full book of information about his wife he had been collecting on her mental health, and her substance abuse issues. joyce in turn told her therapist all about her struggles even describing lionel as "insatiable".
quote about her health page 44. the parents discussed frequently who would have custody over david, but jeff was mostly forgotten about.
shrine calls dahmer at this point, "dangerously disconnected"- completley overlooked in the divorce struggle. this would lead to alot of trouble.
prom date story? page 46- also went to DC with his class and ended up calling the then vice president- he was able to make a face to face introduction with his class mates and the VP
he and his few friends who by some accounts used him for laughs more than anything, managed to get dahmer into almost every group yearbook photo as a prank.
the parents get a divorce, and joyce effectively gets the house- as part of the agreement, joyce is awarded custody of minor david, but told to stay within the court's jurisdiction.
stephen hicks
dahmer's fantasies continued to evolve to the point where he began to understand what really turned him on- the male torso and the concept of possessing someone. the fantasy of the hitchhiker
the thoughts even got to the point where he thought he would have to kill someone to achieve the idea of possessing someone. dahmer kept these urges at bay through masturbating, unknowingly solidifying them in his psyche. page 51. arrows from the blue quote.
one day in june, dahmer asked his dad if he could borrow his car- i think lionel was still living at the hotel. dahmer was to return the car the next day. the pretense was to go the movies. cruising around 5 along the highway, dahmer saw something that caught his eye- a young man hitchhiking along the road side.
The young man was Steve Hicks, and he was the ideal victim for dahmer- young, handsome, and shirtless. it sounds funny, but given dahmer's obesession with torsos, this was borderline pornagraphic for him.
The stretch of road they were on wasn't commonly used, and dahmer realized he had stumbled onto a perfect scenario. A car, a willing and handsome passenger, and an empty house.
Dahmer was nervous but turned around and made the approach. Dahmer introduced himself, and Steven in turn introduced himself. Steven was from Illinois and dahmer was able to convince him to head back to his place with an offer of beer and some weed.
When they arrived, they headed to Jeff's room; steve passed on the weed, but took jeff up on his offer for some beers. jeff began to frantically try and figure out how to make a pass at steve.
meanwhile steve revealed he was very much straight- he had in fact just finished celebrating his 19th birthday with his girlfriend.
Dahmer began to get more and more upset each time the girlfriend was issued- the pressure was building and each word from steve in that regard was like turning the key of a jack in the box.
dahmer began to realize this conversation, and in turn his whole life wasn't going anywhere- dark frustration started to build.
after a few hours hicks metioned it was probably time for him to be heading out. this was the last chance- nervousness and anger drove dahmer's next steps. he wasn't going to let someone else leave him. he excused himself to the cellar for a moment- grabbed an 8 inch barbell- took the weights off, and went back upstairs.
steve was sitting with his back to the cellar door- Dahmer seized his chance and swung at his head with the barbell. The impact angered Hicks who began to fight with Dahmer; a short bru haha ensued but Dahmer hit hicks over the head a second time and knocked him out.
Dahmer was likely full of nervous energy and excitement, and was beyond reasoning or rationale. He hesitated then took the barbell and strangled Hick's body with it.
Dahmer had killed for the first time; and once his nerves died down and he caught his breath, he claimed his prize.
Stripping Hick's of his shirt he began to revel in the beauty of Hick's body. Again Dahmer was a product killer; after all this Dahmer had his object of desire. He ran his hands all over the body, especially his chest- kissing and caressing it. He lay down next to the body for a while. My guess is definitly big spoon.
Finally, Dahmer stood up and masterbated on to the body. This act of masterbation I feel has incredible significance- it begins to tie violence into sexuality and to further reinforce his desires to obtain product at any cost. Like anyone who has cum will tell you, Dahmer was hit with post nut clarity- he had killed somebody.
His desires had escalated then become real. Dahmer was consumed with fear and once night fell, he dragged the body outside and under the house's crawlspace.
He went back inside but couldn't sleep- he was in full on panic mode. In one aspect his fantasy world had made the dangerous leap and crossed over into reality. On the other hand, he had a 19 year old boy's weight in evidence sitting in his crawlspace.
His focus turned towards the latter- he needed to get rid of the body. When the next day came, Damer went shopping- he bought a large knife and went to the crawlspace to get to work.
The crawlspace itself was rather large- part of the house was on stilts due to the house being on a hill.
Dahmer got to the grisly work of dissassembling the body. first he cut off his arms and legs, then removed his head. Dahmer also too the time to recreate some of his experiments with roadkill, cutting open the belly and poking about in the innards.
Most of the blood soaked into the ground behind the house. Dahmer then put the body parts in triple lined garbage bags, burned his ID and clothes, and left the bags under the crawlspace for a while.
Dahmer spent the better part of the day trying to figure out what to do with the body. HE ultimatley decided to dump the remains into a ravine 10 miles from his house. What follows is a crazy and really sad story.
Dahmer loaded up the bags full of body parts into the back of his car a little before 3 AM. He downed a few beers then drove off. A police car arond 3AM signalled for him to stop and pull over; the cop called for back up and told Jeff to get out of the car. They had Jeff do the schtick with his finger on his nose and walking the line.
Jeff passed, but wasn't out of the woods yet- the cop shown a flashlight in the car and asked -" whats that smell?"- jeff then implemented his silver tongue- a skill that he would use throughout his criminal career to explain the bags away. He claimed he was taking the trash to the dump- this late in the evening because his parents were in a divorce arguments and he couldn't sleep.
Its crazy to think about it...had the cop involved been more diligent, Dahmer's spree would have been over before it started. What's even crazier is the cop who flagged the young dahmer down would later be the self same cop who interview dahmer while he was in custody.
Dahmer returned home with the bodies in the car and a new speeding ticket. He stowed the bags back under the crawlspaces, and then did something completely beyond the pale of what he had done before. He opened the bags and rifled through them to find steven hick's head.
He took it upstairs, relishing in the notion that it was HIS now. He then proceeded to masturbate while looking at it. This was a major escalation for dahmer and represented the turning of a page into a new darker chapter in dahmer's book.
Serial killers are almost all characterized by their small allowances and incremental steps toward depravity. this was one of dahmer's first steps down this road.
Dahmer was out of ideas regarding the body of Steven Hicks; he decided to bury it in a pipe behind his house. He kept the head for a bit longer then disposed of that too.
He threw Steven's necklace and the butchering knife he had used on the body in the Cuyahoga River.
Taint your life quote. page 55.
Out of all the deaths he caused, Dahmer regretted this one the most. This may be the only he regretted at all. It would be 9 years before he killed again, but the memories would haunt him the whole time.
He would at times, break down into tears over it and in 1991, when discussing it with a pschiatrist after his arrest, he only go silent when the topic would come out.
The pschiatrist would prod him for details to which Dahmer only replied "I'd rather be talking about anything else in the world than this".
I really like the way Shrine put his next point- pg. 56 moral inertia quote.
Hicks was last seen alive on 18th of June- his body would be missing for 13 years.
DAHMER LEFT ALONE
Joyce decides to leave and go to wisconsin, taking david with her. she urges jeff to come, but he decides to stay.
since lionel is living at a motel, this leaves jeff home alone. to my understanding, this would be the last time he sees joyce. (circle back if false).
Jeff is left home alone, with no almost no groceries to speak of, and a wreck of a house for around three weeks- ultimatly his dad finds out the house is empty and moves back in.
school was out, and college hadnt started- he was alone mentally and physically for almost an entire month. before joyce had left him there for days on end when she went for periodic visits. It was during one of these periods that dahmer first brought his fantasy world into reality.
this was much worse. i use the phrase much worse, because it served as time for jeff's darkest fantasies to solidify. he was alone with his thoughts, masterbating, eating drinking and sleeping all day. as his sex craze began to deepen he turned his attention towards...
FLASH FORWARD-
Lionel and future step mom Shari come back to the house in Bath to find Jeff living in a trashed and empty house with just himself, his dog, and his rubbed raw dick.
Shari took it on her self to get Jeff ready for college.
Jeff spent his time drinking, dontating plasma to pay for booze. The clinic had to mark up hif fingernails to keep him from overdonating.
He went to Ohio State
He flunked out his first semester, despite his dad paying for two semesters in advance. Jeff's time in college makes a lot of sense- not excusable but in a weird way, logical. his drinking was part addiction, part burial mechanism. His detachment from others was a form of distrust both of his own self and of his own place in larger society.
With Jeff back home, he hung out more with high school dumb ass friend Jeff Six. The two spent considerable time smoking pot and drinking, getting in trouble at one point for running over someone's lawn, and concluding with Jeff losing his parent's borrowed car. After Lionel and Shari returned from an extensive search for their own car, they concluded Jeff had to get his shit together.
He would need to go into the army-per Lionel's sugges-tolding him. He was accepted into a three year enlistment in the Military Police School- On Christmas eve ( afew weeks after the enlistment), Lionel would marry Shari- jeff didn't attend the ceremony. Four days after Christmas he headed for Alabama for training at Fort Mclellin.
The military was an odd fit for Dahmer; on one hand the discipline and jam packed training schedule kept him off the bottle and helped keep his mind off of his mind.
On the other hand, once drinking was again permitted, dahmer began to hit the sauce again- he was so frequently reprimanded for drunkenness that he once got his whole platoon written up for insubordination. His fellow soldiers subsequently gathered and beat the shit out of him; he was left bloodied and one of his ear-drums was broken- he would suffer ear aches 10 years later. That helped in some degree in keeping his rampant alcoholism n check.
He left basic training and went through medic training- coming out fully trained. The skills would be later put to grisly use.
Dahmer was then assigned and stationed to Baumholder West Germany at a local base. He would spend two years there, being mostly remembered as a loner.
One of the older soldiers in his unit suspected Dahmer of being homsexual, primarily on the basis that Dahmer "always seemed like he was hiding something". He spent most of his time in Germany walking about the local areas; he would frequent adult bookstores, browsing homosexual porn and drinking half off booze.
During his more profound drunken bouts, he would weep. Shrine debates that he wasn't necessarily weeping over Hicks, but over the predicament he got himself into when he murdered.
Although there aren't any missing persons reports or other indications that dahmer committed any crimes while in Germany, there is an odd story that I'll touch on. Dahmer was invited to a dinner party in 1979 for Thanksgiving. Snow was falling heavily outside and their host suggested those invited spend the night and wait out the storm.
Later in the evening, the host of the party and dahmer got into an argument and dahmer slunk out of the house around 10:30, walking off into the snow.
Some of the invitees noticed and spent 15 minutes or so outside looking for him, but were driven outside by the cold. The assumption was that Jeff had taken a taxi back to the base.
FOUR HOURS late, dahmer shows up, but somethings not right. He appeared confused and distracted and didn't seem like he had been in the cold at all. His jacket wasn't cold like you'd expect, and he had lost his glasses. Dahmer set to washing his hands vigously in the kitchen, the host thinking there MAY have been some blood on his jacket. Whe nasked where had been, dahmer couldn't remember but assumed he must have done "something bad".
A few days later, the host asked dahmer what happened that night- dahmer remained quiet, but later remarked "you know, sometimes the best thing for the soul is to confess". After drinking his way through the majority of his time in Germany, both on and off duty, Dahmer was given an honourable discharge 6 months early and was sent stateside to a city of his choosing.
Looking for better weather, Dahmer chose to fly to Florida. Jeff didnt realize his trunk with all of his shit or sent them off to start a new life , including his porn was sent back to his old house. Some time later, his brother David would find the trunk and the porn stash.
In florida, he took a motel room and worked at a sub shop. he worked seven days a week and spent his earnings on booze. the job sucked and he couldn't make ends meet. He would eventually get kicked out of his motel and lived on the beach, becoming homeless.
He broke down, finding he was unable to run from himself, and called his dad, asking to return home.
Once home, and once Lionel and shari were at work, Dahmer went to the pipe he had stashed Hick's inside 3 years later and hauled his remains through the woods.
He went to a small cliff and took what were now just bones, crushing each one with a large rock. He then took the fragment remains and scattered them throughout the woods.
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